5 ms·

Will be much cheaper by then provided society does not collapse first. If it does, replacing them will be among the least of your problems. Roving bands of sup

by ncmncm 4y ago

Will be much cheaper by then provided society does not collapse first. If it does, replacing them will be among the least of your problems. Roving bands of supersonic aluminum Nazi hell zombies from beneath the hollow Earth may figure prominently among the latter. (Maybe they do already?) But securing dietary calories would probably present more frequent difficulty.

kkfx 4y ago
So your theory is "let's try and HOPE we will be able before the society collapse to make the new deal works"? If so consider a thing: that's a CRIMINAL act even in case of desperation. A society MUST never act without basis. A company can, and individual can because there is a society around to help, the whole society can't because if something goes wrong there is exactly no one around to help. In desperate cases desperate measures are meant to still reach a probable, defined outcome, like deciding to leave many alone, facing unrest etc BUT never hoping for something new to arrive in time: science and industry do not work like that and in general do work only when there are comfort condition for a long period of time. Personally in case of a society collapse, knowing well we can't live in nature anymore, more than dietary calories I would seek revenge in the meat of those I consider guilty, the topmost figure I can reach with the most inhuman and fierce sentiment BTW... Apart of that my point is simple: we have something that work, but is not sustainable since we consume resources more than natural reintegration rates. We DO NOT have alternatives so far. The answer must be try to discover them NOT try to push something we know can't scale nor work on scale nor reproduce itself. With oil you can re-create oil industry. With nuclear you can't but at least you can made tools needed to re-create it. With p.v. and wind power you can't and you can't also create tools needed to re-create panels, inverters etc. So far we know that we do not have nor we can't have in time a global superconductive hypothetical mega-grid to get stable enough energy supply because on enough part of the world Sun always shining and wind always blows. We do not have no viable solution for energy storage except for small scale needs for limited applications. Let's say we probably even can't have enough batteries to power modern homes for even a small fraction of the total population. So the theory is: well, at least we can reduce energy consumption. YES, we can, with p.v. (wind provide too little and too inconstant power) BUT we can't connect it to the grid keeping the grid stable without a big and hyper-fast backup (lithium) and that's why originally BEVs was designed: to be always connected in large enough batches to compensate p.v. oscillations quick enough. UNFORTUNATELY so far: - BEVs on sale have NO integration features for such use case, even for a personal scale like a domestic p.v. + the car as an extra battery talking to home inverters sucking power when the Sun shine, offering power when it's needed; - nothing is even designed for a nation-wide smart grid; - no electric appliance on sale is designed to be smart for p.v. integration, even those who actually claim the contrary. So far we have NO smart-car battery chargers who talk a common and open protocol (let's say via canbus) allowing a human at home or in the car to state: - charge car battery at {maximum,minimum} SOC {ONLY from p.v,also from grid to reach a minimum SOC at $TIME} - car, do provide high voltage standard DC power to the home battery-charger/p.v. inverter as demanded not going below $SOC except in case of outage mode where the minimum SOC descend to near-zero. Nothing is even debated about how to use privately owned cars to backup the grid providing relevant compensation for the service to their owner (please do not cite Tesla, they made proprietary stuff, innovative in general but of a so crappy quality that's a crime asking more than their production costs on sale). So far no home appliance embed a standard protocol to be centrally controllable by a home server/solar inverter to do the ONLY current reasonable thing: p.v. self-consumption as much as possible. Essentially anything on sale, sold as a commercial product, is more a dumb prototype made by some who do not even have clear ideas about it's usage. And you thing that's a "tremendous effort the humanity actually made for a better future"? Are you kidding? Let's start outline a real, resonate high-level overview plan instead.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  It pleases you to pretend we don't know how to store energy. But we do. You may fly off on tangents assuming we don't, but do not expect people to go with you.
  - kkfx 4y ago
    OK, can you indicate some of such tech? Personally I have a classic LiFeP battery (casually from a Chinese company, like 99% of those on sale) who can actually power my home without heating for a day, can last potentially ten years (6000 recharge "guaranteed"). Nothing that can scale more, behind pumped hydro who demand mountains and water to be done do better, and actually you can't sustainably power a factory from lithium batteries. We do not even know if we can produce enough of them to power just common cars. Oh, and we need planes, trucks, ships etc.
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      Assuming nothing exists except what you already know about gets you reliably wrong answers. In fact there are a lot of hills. Few places are very far away from any, even in Nebraska. Any hill may serve for pumped hydro, although those over 2000 ft (600m) and have a natural depression are best. A simple earthen levee suffices, otherwise, with a penstock extending down. But we also can compress air, for "CAES". And we can liquify air. Both of these are extremely mature technology. Compressed air is cheaply and safely kept deep underground or underwater, and released through a turbine to recover power put in. Liquified air is vaporized with heat from ambient air. We can electrolyse water and keep the resulting hydrogen in underground cavities, under increasing pressure; both the hydrogen and its pressure store energy. We can synthesize ammonia, to tank and transport, and burn it for fuel in ships and existing combined-cycle gas turbines. Ammonia synthesized in the tropics or where wind is reliable may be shipped anywhere in the world to fill in for shortfalls of local storage. So, nobody needs much local storage. Aviation will soon transition to liquid hydrogen because the value proposition is so great. Anybody lagging will find themselves wholly unable to compete. LH2 will be made and banked on-site at major airports, from power delivered via transmission line. Another simple storage method uses buoyancy, drawing floats down toward the sea floor. Another, raising and lowering a heavy weight in a disused mineshaft. The mineshaft may also contain compressed hydrogen. Your off-grid domestic batteries are the most expensive way to store energy. But they probably will last you longer than 10 years, just as your refrigerator will probably last longer than 3. In the near future you might come to bank hydrogen instead, and put excess in your car. Your electrolyser will last more than 10 years. The compressor might wear out in time, but is cheap.

by ncmncm 4y ago

kkfx 4y ago

So your theory is "let's try and HOPE we will be able before the society collapse to make the new deal works"? If so consider a thing: that's a CRIMINAL act even in case of desperation. A society MUST never act without basis. A company can, and individual can because there is a society around to help, the whole society can't because if something goes wrong there is exactly no one around to help. In desperate cases desperate measures are meant to still reach a probable, defined outcome, like deciding to leave many alone, facing unrest etc BUT never hoping for something new to arrive in time: science and industry do not work like that and in general do work only when there are comfort condition for a long period of time. Personally in case of a society collapse, knowing well we can't live in nature anymore, more than dietary calories I would seek revenge in the meat of those I consider guilty, the topmost figure I can reach with the most inhuman and fierce sentiment BTW... Apart of that my point is simple: we have something that work, but is not sustainable since we consume resources more than natural reintegration rates. We DO NOT have alternatives so far. The answer must be try to discover them NOT try to push something we know can't scale nor work on scale nor reproduce itself. With oil you can re-create oil industry. With nuclear you can't but at least you can made tools needed to re-create it. With p.v. and wind power you can't and you can't also create tools needed to re-create panels, inverters etc. So far we know that we do not have nor we can't have in time a global superconductive hypothetical mega-grid to get stable enough energy supply because on enough part of the world Sun always shining and wind always blows. We do not have no viable solution for energy storage except for small scale needs for limited applications. Let's say we probably even can't have enough batteries to power modern homes for even a small fraction of the total population. So the theory is: well, at least we can reduce energy consumption. YES, we can, with p.v. (wind provide too little and too inconstant power) BUT we can't connect it to the grid keeping the grid stable without a big and hyper-fast backup (lithium) and that's why originally BEVs was designed: to be always connected in large enough batches to compensate p.v. oscillations quick enough. UNFORTUNATELY so far: - BEVs on sale have NO integration features for such use case, even for a personal scale like a domestic p.v. + the car as an extra battery talking to home inverters sucking power when the Sun shine, offering power when it's needed; - nothing is even designed for a nation-wide smart grid; - no electric appliance on sale is designed to be smart for p.v. integration, even those who actually claim the contrary. So far we have NO smart-car battery chargers who talk a common and open protocol (let's say via canbus) allowing a human at home or in the car to state: - charge car battery at {maximum,minimum} SOC {ONLY from p.v,also from grid to reach a minimum SOC at $TIME} - car, do provide high voltage standard DC power to the home battery-charger/p.v. inverter as demanded not going below $SOC except in case of outage mode where the minimum SOC descend to near-zero. Nothing is even debated about how to use privately owned cars to backup the grid providing relevant compensation for the service to their owner (please do not cite Tesla, they made proprietary stuff, innovative in general but of a so crappy quality that's a crime asking more than their production costs on sale). So far no home appliance embed a standard protocol to be centrally controllable by a home server/solar inverter to do the ONLY current reasonable thing: p.v. self-consumption as much as possible. Essentially anything on sale, sold as a commercial product, is more a dumb prototype made by some who do not even have clear ideas about it's usage. And you thing that's a "tremendous effort the humanity actually made for a better future"? Are you kidding? Let's start outline a real, resonate high-level overview plan instead.

ncmncm 4y ago
It pleases you to pretend we don't know how to store energy. But we do. You may fly off on tangents assuming we don't, but do not expect people to go with you.
- kkfx 4y ago
  OK, can you indicate some of such tech? Personally I have a classic LiFeP battery (casually from a Chinese company, like 99% of those on sale) who can actually power my home without heating for a day, can last potentially ten years (6000 recharge "guaranteed"). Nothing that can scale more, behind pumped hydro who demand mountains and water to be done do better, and actually you can't sustainably power a factory from lithium batteries. We do not even know if we can produce enough of them to power just common cars. Oh, and we need planes, trucks, ships etc.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    Assuming nothing exists except what you already know about gets you reliably wrong answers. In fact there are a lot of hills. Few places are very far away from any, even in Nebraska. Any hill may serve for pumped hydro, although those over 2000 ft (600m) and have a natural depression are best. A simple earthen levee suffices, otherwise, with a penstock extending down. But we also can compress air, for "CAES". And we can liquify air. Both of these are extremely mature technology. Compressed air is cheaply and safely kept deep underground or underwater, and released through a turbine to recover power put in. Liquified air is vaporized with heat from ambient air. We can electrolyse water and keep the resulting hydrogen in underground cavities, under increasing pressure; both the hydrogen and its pressure store energy. We can synthesize ammonia, to tank and transport, and burn it for fuel in ships and existing combined-cycle gas turbines. Ammonia synthesized in the tropics or where wind is reliable may be shipped anywhere in the world to fill in for shortfalls of local storage. So, nobody needs much local storage. Aviation will soon transition to liquid hydrogen because the value proposition is so great. Anybody lagging will find themselves wholly unable to compete. LH2 will be made and banked on-site at major airports, from power delivered via transmission line. Another simple storage method uses buoyancy, drawing floats down toward the sea floor. Another, raising and lowering a heavy weight in a disused mineshaft. The mineshaft may also contain compressed hydrogen. Your off-grid domestic batteries are the most expensive way to store energy. But they probably will last you longer than 10 years, just as your refrigerator will probably last longer than 3. In the near future you might come to bank hydrogen instead, and put excess in your car. Your electrolyser will last more than 10 years. The compressor might wear out in time, but is cheap.