I think we’ve learned an enormous amount since the start of the conflict. We’ve learned a lot about the tenacity, imagination and commitment of the Ukrainian pe

I think we’ve learned an enormous amount since the start of the conflict. We’ve learned a lot about the tenacity, imagination and commitment of the Ukrainian people. We’ve learned about some severe limitations and weaknesses in Russian military organisation and doctrine. I don’t mean to beat on Russia in a partisan way, although I support Ukraine, but these are facts even many supporters of the Russian military acknowledge especially after the Kharkiv counter offensive. In that action we discovered that the Ukrainians are also capable of taking territory, not just the Russians. We don’t know precisely how the conflict will end, but we have excluded many possible endings that seemed plausible in the first days but now seem extremely improbably or practically impossible. In that way the possible space of outcomes had shrunk considerably. Russia isn’t going to capture Kyiv or depose the Ukrainian government by military force, for example. It seems increasingly unlikely that they are even going to take the entire Donbas region. It seems very unlikely that the conflict will be resolved this year. As winter bites, the situation may change though. As the months go on we will learn even more.