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It's not just hard to track, it's hard to know at all this early. There will be a lot more information over the next few months.

kergonath 4y ago
For sure. That said, you’d think that soldiers surrendering would be used in propaganda, as was the case early on when the Ukrainian showed PoWs calling their families. In contrast we have a lot of documentation about mass graves, torture, and captured equipment and weapons. So I don’t think soldiers surrendering is very significant. Also, it’s easy for Russian soldiers to just take civilian clothes and disappear on either side of the front line. Much easier than for a German in France or Italy in 1944.
- coredog64 4y ago
  It’s a violation of the laws of war to use POWs for propaganda.
thriftwy 4y ago
It's few months o'clock already - we haven't learned much since the conflict has started. Why the next few months would make a difference?
- simonh 4y ago
  I think we’ve learned an enormous amount since the start of the conflict. We’ve learned a lot about the tenacity, imagination and commitment of the Ukrainian people. We’ve learned about some severe limitations and weaknesses in Russian military organisation and doctrine. I don’t mean to beat on Russia in a partisan way, although I support Ukraine, but these are facts even many supporters of the Russian military acknowledge especially after the Kharkiv counter offensive. In that action we discovered that the Ukrainians are also capable of taking territory, not just the Russians. We don’t know precisely how the conflict will end, but we have excluded many possible endings that seemed plausible in the first days but now seem extremely improbably or practically impossible. In that way the possible space of outcomes had shrunk considerably. Russia isn’t going to capture Kyiv or depose the Ukrainian government by military force, for example. It seems increasingly unlikely that they are even going to take the entire Donbas region. It seems very unlikely that the conflict will be resolved this year. As winter bites, the situation may change though. As the months go on we will learn even more.

kergonath 4y ago

For sure. That said, you’d think that soldiers surrendering would be used in propaganda, as was the case early on when the Ukrainian showed PoWs calling their families. In contrast we have a lot of documentation about mass graves, torture, and captured equipment and weapons. So I don’t think soldiers surrendering is very significant. Also, it’s easy for Russian soldiers to just take civilian clothes and disappear on either side of the front line. Much easier than for a German in France or Italy in 1944.

coredog64 4y ago
It’s a violation of the laws of war to use POWs for propaganda.

thriftwy 4y ago

It's few months o'clock already - we haven't learned much since the conflict has started. Why the next few months would make a difference?

simonh 4y ago
I think we’ve learned an enormous amount since the start of the conflict. We’ve learned a lot about the tenacity, imagination and commitment of the Ukrainian people. We’ve learned about some severe limitations and weaknesses in Russian military organisation and doctrine. I don’t mean to beat on Russia in a partisan way, although I support Ukraine, but these are facts even many supporters of the Russian military acknowledge especially after the Kharkiv counter offensive. In that action we discovered that the Ukrainians are also capable of taking territory, not just the Russians. We don’t know precisely how the conflict will end, but we have excluded many possible endings that seemed plausible in the first days but now seem extremely improbably or practically impossible. In that way the possible space of outcomes had shrunk considerably. Russia isn’t going to capture Kyiv or depose the Ukrainian government by military force, for example. It seems increasingly unlikely that they are even going to take the entire Donbas region. It seems very unlikely that the conflict will be resolved this year. As winter bites, the situation may change though. As the months go on we will learn even more.