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I am just curious about manufacturing capacity of these green energy gadgets in Western World. When I look at the parts for my solar installation everything is

by lnsru 4y ago

I am just curious about manufacturing capacity of these green energy gadgets in Western World. When I look at the parts for my solar installation everything is made in Asia. My system is rather simple: 4-6 panels each ~400 Wp and stupid single phase inverter. That battery production isn’t a thing in the West is already well known fact. In my eyes this green energy transition totally depends on factories in Asia. And builds strong dependence since nothing can be made domestically (at least no mainstream solar panels/electronics in Germany).

kbenson 4y ago
Battery production capacity is becoming more decentralized, as countries with large production capabilities stay somewhat stagnant but other countries build factories. China's percentage of world battery production is expected to drop over the next few years while most other countries are expected to increase production capacity.[1] See Tesla's investment in the gigafactory or Panasonic's investment in battery manufacturing in Kansas for examples of this happening. Germany specifically, since you mention it, is expected to surge quite a bit in the global battery market. 1: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1249871/share-of-the-global-lithium-ion-battery-manufacturing-capacity-by-country/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1249871/share-of-the-glo... P.S. I suggest opening the statista link in a private tab, I just noticed the second time you visit it you are paywall blocked.
micromacrofoot 4y ago
yeah that and pretty much every computer in the world
- Gare 4y ago
  But the machines that make "computers" are designed and produced in Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding If you know how to make the tool, you probably know how to make the product.
  - prottog 4y ago
    Only theoretically. In practice, it takes a lot of know-how unseen by the public to make a product in a manner that is price-competitive against other players in the market. Europe is obviously technologically capable of building chips and assembling functioning laptops that are ready for consumption, since as you pointed out they are capable of making the machines that make the chips; but that's still a long way from saying that they can start churning out Macbook Airs.
Animats 4y ago
> That battery production isn’t a thing in the West is already well known fact. Er, no. 13 large new battery factories are expected to come online in the US in the next 3 years.[1] General Motors is building four. Ford is building three. SK Innovations is building two. Stellantis (Fiat, Chrysler, etc.) is building two. Volkswagen and Toyota are building one each. This doesn't include Tesla, which isn't saying. China's ambassador to the United States is now complaining about the US cutting China out of the battery supply chain.[2] [1] https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Ramps-Up-Battery-Production-With-13-New-Gigafactories.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Ramps-Up-Batte... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-15/china-s-envoy-to-us-warns-against-cutting-nation-out-of-ev-chain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-15/china-s-e...
- snake_doc 4y ago
  The EV components’ raw materials (battery materials and rare earths) are largely controlled by China [1][2]. They may not control the chain end to end, but they have a strangle hold specifically on raw material processing/refinement. Many of the EU/U.S. battery factories will import lithium chemicals from China, at least for this decade. [1]IEA 2022 report, see page 5 on battery materials supply chain share by country: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-supply-chains-of-ev-batteries https://www.iea.org/reports/global-supply-chains-of-ev-batte... [2]WSJ article on China’s monopoly on rare earths: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-create-new-state-owned-rare-earths-giant-11638545586 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-create-new-state-o...
  - Animats 4y ago
    The big rare earths mine at Mountain Pass, CA is back online.[1] The MP Materials magnet plant in Texas is supposed to start delivering to GM in 2023.[2] Although Google Earth shows a vacant lot at the announced location. Groundbreaking was a few months ago. Australia is the largest producer of lithium ore. Over 50% of world production. China is down around 6%. Lithium Americas finally got approval this year to build an open-pit lithium mine in Thacker Pass, Nevada. Supposedly construction should be starting about now.[3] Things are moving forward in this area. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Pass_mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Pass_mine [2] https://mpmaterials.com/articles/mp-materials-begins-construction-on-texas-rare-earth-magnetics-factory-to-restore-full-us-supply-chain/ https://mpmaterials.com/articles/mp-materials-begins-constru... [3] https://www.lithiumamericas.com/usa/thacker-pass/ https://www.lithiumamericas.com/usa/thacker-pass/

by lnsru 4y ago

kbenson 4y ago

Battery production capacity is becoming more decentralized, as countries with large production capabilities stay somewhat stagnant but other countries build factories. China's percentage of world battery production is expected to drop over the next few years while most other countries are expected to increase production capacity.[1] See Tesla's investment in the gigafactory or Panasonic's investment in battery manufacturing in Kansas for examples of this happening. Germany specifically, since you mention it, is expected to surge quite a bit in the global battery market. 1: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1249871/share-of-the-global-lithium-ion-battery-manufacturing-capacity-by-country/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1249871/share-of-the-glo... P.S. I suggest opening the statista link in a private tab, I just noticed the second time you visit it you are paywall blocked.

micromacrofoot 4y ago

yeah that and pretty much every computer in the world

Gare 4y ago
But the machines that make "computers" are designed and produced in Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding If you know how to make the tool, you probably know how to make the product.
- prottog 4y ago
  Only theoretically. In practice, it takes a lot of know-how unseen by the public to make a product in a manner that is price-competitive against other players in the market. Europe is obviously technologically capable of building chips and assembling functioning laptops that are ready for consumption, since as you pointed out they are capable of making the machines that make the chips; but that's still a long way from saying that they can start churning out Macbook Airs.

Animats 4y ago

> That battery production isn’t a thing in the West is already well known fact. Er, no. 13 large new battery factories are expected to come online in the US in the next 3 years.[1] General Motors is building four. Ford is building three. SK Innovations is building two. Stellantis (Fiat, Chrysler, etc.) is building two. Volkswagen and Toyota are building one each. This doesn't include Tesla, which isn't saying. China's ambassador to the United States is now complaining about the US cutting China out of the battery supply chain.[2] [1] https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Ramps-Up-Battery-Production-With-13-New-Gigafactories.html https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Ramps-Up-Batte... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-15/china-s-envoy-to-us-warns-against-cutting-nation-out-of-ev-chain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-15/china-s-e...

snake_doc 4y ago
The EV components’ raw materials (battery materials and rare earths) are largely controlled by China [1][2]. They may not control the chain end to end, but they have a strangle hold specifically on raw material processing/refinement. Many of the EU/U.S. battery factories will import lithium chemicals from China, at least for this decade. [1]IEA 2022 report, see page 5 on battery materials supply chain share by country: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-supply-chains-of-ev-batteries https://www.iea.org/reports/global-supply-chains-of-ev-batte... [2]WSJ article on China’s monopoly on rare earths: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-create-new-state-owned-rare-earths-giant-11638545586 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-create-new-state-o...
- Animats 4y ago
  The big rare earths mine at Mountain Pass, CA is back online.[1] The MP Materials magnet plant in Texas is supposed to start delivering to GM in 2023.[2] Although Google Earth shows a vacant lot at the announced location. Groundbreaking was a few months ago. Australia is the largest producer of lithium ore. Over 50% of world production. China is down around 6%. Lithium Americas finally got approval this year to build an open-pit lithium mine in Thacker Pass, Nevada. Supposedly construction should be starting about now.[3] Things are moving forward in this area. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Pass_mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Pass_mine [2] https://mpmaterials.com/articles/mp-materials-begins-construction-on-texas-rare-earth-magnetics-factory-to-restore-full-us-supply-chain/ https://mpmaterials.com/articles/mp-materials-begins-constru... [3] https://www.lithiumamericas.com/usa/thacker-pass/ https://www.lithiumamericas.com/usa/thacker-pass/