3 ms·
I don't know about this specific crime, but a lot of crimes are correlated with arrest rate. For example, there were places with a lot of illegal street racing
by smt88 4y ago
I don't know about this specific crime, but a lot of crimes are correlated with arrest rate.
For example, there were places with a lot of illegal street racing that were able to drastically reduce the problem with slightly higher arrest rates.
Somehow the criminals have a mental calculus of their likelihood of facing charges (maybe just based on anecdata from media reports -- who knows!) and they behave accordingly.
- ouid 4y agoThe phenomenon is better explained by: much higher arrest rates -> fewer people doing it -> fewer people to arrest -> lower arrest rates.
- jgtrosh 4y agoBy far, the most effective deterrent is indeed “certainty of being caught” (far more than whatever punishment happens afterwards) https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/five-things-about-deterrence https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/five-things-about-deterr...
- drc500free 4y agoWhat's interesting is that severity of punishment has very little effect, while certainty of punishment has a large effect.