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The problem with timing the market is you have to be right twice - you have to choose when to sell and when to buy back in. On the other hand, DCA'ing you way
by nly 4y ago
The problem with timing the market is you have to be right twice - you have to choose when to sell and when to buy back in.
On the other hand, DCA'ing you way through a market decline and recovery will always leave you in a better position than one where the crash never happened.
- 01100011 4y ago> problem with timing the market is you have to be right twice And times like this when macro forces dominate it's not hard to predict. If you're talking about timing entry/exit over the past decade, sure, but now is not then, and it's bogleheads refusal to see that which is most frustrating. But I'll say again, you don't need to nail it. Don't try to time the exact top and bottom, but don't pretend you can't get close.
- porknubbins 4y agoI guess the lesson on macro now is when the Fed says it wants to cool inflation, market be damned, believe them. But in general I claim you cannot get close to top bottoms consistently- because so much of the movement happens so fast now, you can get 10% in days or weeks and if you are out of position all your effort was for nothing. I’ve been trying for decades but would have been better taking the advice to put it in the SP500.