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No, not pump and dumps. Just stocks that a large amount of people are about to buy into. A pump and dump is a coordinated effort, whereas I'm looking for someth

by smcn 4y ago

No, not pump and dumps. Just stocks that a large amount of people are about to buy into. A pump and dump is a coordinated effort, whereas I'm looking for something more organic. It might be late in that you might make less money than you would if you were in those groups but I can't say that I'm unhappy with what the algorithm is currently finding. It's primarily built for day trading, so you're in and out of trades that same day. There are times you're out within 30 minutes. The goal is near daily compounding, which leads to higher gains than holding for X number of days. It has been recording data since 9th of August 2021 and is averaging 4.5648% across 340 stocks. Since Jan 1st this year, it's averaging 5.1779%, and I would like to think that I can get that number higher. Note that these are perfect values, using the open price and the highest price of the day, they're unachievable consistently, I use them to understand how much potential for profit we could've had.

doix 4y ago
> No, not pump and dumps. Just stocks that a large amount of people are about to buy into. A pump and dump is a coordinated effort, whereas I'm looking for something more organic. I guess what you call "organic", I call the very end of the tail of a "pump". I believe that Reddit sentiment is largely manipulated. When GME was going crazy, there was definitely a coordinated effort to pump AMC, BB and some other garbage that I forget. I don't believe that suddenly a group of people will all randomly pick the same tickers to start hyping up. I'm not saying everyone involved is trying to pump/dump those stocks, I think it's a small group of people posting bullshit analysis in random places trying to get other people to buy + hype up the stock to create that "organic" interest that you are capturing. I reckon BBBY was definitely an organized pump and dump for example, but only a small amount of threads/comments were organized. A lot of people buy into the hype and continue to hype it up themselves. The most interesting part is identifying which stocks will end up "going" viral, by analyzing who/when/how the first mention of these tickers starts up. Maybe a certain writing style works really well, maybe if some ticker gets mentioned at the same time in 3 specific discord channels then that stock goes on to do well. Maybe if a certain reddit account posts it first it goes well, etc. Using PRAW to get counts of ticker mentions in some subreddits isn't super interesting, at least in my eyes.
- smcn 4y ago
  > Using PRAW to get counts of ticker mentions in some subreddits isn't super interesting, at least in my eyes. Just to clarify, this isn't what is happening. And I agree that's not interesting. It's measuring the response to mentions and that's the score we save (we call them impressions). It's like that saying "if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a noise?", if a post goes unseen, will people still buy the stock? We also don't just release the top X number of stocks that we recorded per day, we're looking for patterns in the data and this becomes the interesting stocks of each day, which then go on to be validated. > that suddenly a group of people will all randomly pick the same tickers to start hyping up Of course not, like you said: it's memetic. Sure it can start off coordinated but when it goes viral its self-perpetuating. Those are the kinds of patterns I mention in the last paragraph. You can see these upticks, the strength of them, and try to gauge how sustainable they are. Here's me semi freaking out about BBBY just before it really ran: https://twitter.com/0xsmcn/status/1558770400095502336 https://twitter.com/0xsmcn/status/1558770400095502336
mailjenil 4y ago
What do you mean when you say 3.5648% profit over 340 stocks? Is it weekly/monthly/yearly? Are you tracking buy-sell for each stock daily? Are you taking into consideration loss potential? One loss could wipe multiple days gain.
- smcn 4y ago
  > Note that these are perfect values, using the open price and the highest price of the day, they're unachievable consistently, I use them to understand how much potential for profit we could've had. The stocks increase by that daily. You will not reach that value consistently, I urge everyone to take a conservative approach when investing, and to take profit whenever they can. We don't (currently) invest peoples money for them, so we need a benchmark to understand how well the algorithm performed, and that was deemed the fairest.

by smcn 4y ago

doix 4y ago

> No, not pump and dumps. Just stocks that a large amount of people are about to buy into. A pump and dump is a coordinated effort, whereas I'm looking for something more organic. I guess what you call "organic", I call the very end of the tail of a "pump". I believe that Reddit sentiment is largely manipulated. When GME was going crazy, there was definitely a coordinated effort to pump AMC, BB and some other garbage that I forget. I don't believe that suddenly a group of people will all randomly pick the same tickers to start hyping up. I'm not saying everyone involved is trying to pump/dump those stocks, I think it's a small group of people posting bullshit analysis in random places trying to get other people to buy + hype up the stock to create that "organic" interest that you are capturing. I reckon BBBY was definitely an organized pump and dump for example, but only a small amount of threads/comments were organized. A lot of people buy into the hype and continue to hype it up themselves. The most interesting part is identifying which stocks will end up "going" viral, by analyzing who/when/how the first mention of these tickers starts up. Maybe a certain writing style works really well, maybe if some ticker gets mentioned at the same time in 3 specific discord channels then that stock goes on to do well. Maybe if a certain reddit account posts it first it goes well, etc. Using PRAW to get counts of ticker mentions in some subreddits isn't super interesting, at least in my eyes.

smcn 4y ago
> Using PRAW to get counts of ticker mentions in some subreddits isn't super interesting, at least in my eyes. Just to clarify, this isn't what is happening. And I agree that's not interesting. It's measuring the response to mentions and that's the score we save (we call them impressions). It's like that saying "if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a noise?", if a post goes unseen, will people still buy the stock? We also don't just release the top X number of stocks that we recorded per day, we're looking for patterns in the data and this becomes the interesting stocks of each day, which then go on to be validated. > that suddenly a group of people will all randomly pick the same tickers to start hyping up Of course not, like you said: it's memetic. Sure it can start off coordinated but when it goes viral its self-perpetuating. Those are the kinds of patterns I mention in the last paragraph. You can see these upticks, the strength of them, and try to gauge how sustainable they are. Here's me semi freaking out about BBBY just before it really ran: https://twitter.com/0xsmcn/status/1558770400095502336 https://twitter.com/0xsmcn/status/1558770400095502336

mailjenil 4y ago

What do you mean when you say 3.5648% profit over 340 stocks? Is it weekly/monthly/yearly? Are you tracking buy-sell for each stock daily? Are you taking into consideration loss potential? One loss could wipe multiple days gain.

smcn 4y ago
> Note that these are perfect values, using the open price and the highest price of the day, they're unachievable consistently, I use them to understand how much potential for profit we could've had. The stocks increase by that daily. You will not reach that value consistently, I urge everyone to take a conservative approach when investing, and to take profit whenever they can. We don't (currently) invest peoples money for them, so we need a benchmark to understand how well the algorithm performed, and that was deemed the fairest.