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The rationalizations before they happened are always very intelligent sounding, even in retrospect. If you have 100 intelligent sounding speculators lay out the
by danielmarkbruce 4y ago
The rationalizations before they happened are always very intelligent sounding, even in retrospect. If you have 100 intelligent sounding speculators lay out their reasoning and one hits the jackpot, it doesn't mean much.
The general problem is each has a mental (or computer) model of the world that is a vast simplification of the world. When they get it right it sounds like they understood and accounted for all the variables. They never did.
- twawaaay 4y agoYou are not looking if they "sounded" intelligent. You are looking if they were true.
- danielmarkbruce 4y agoIf I flip a coin and someone has an intelligent sounding reason for it to come up heads... and then it does... it means practically zero. Being right means little when there are 100s of folks with predictions and reasons.
- xdavidliu 4y agoif someone made a correct prediction on a coinflip, you’re more likely to believe they knew what they were doing (rather than just get lucky) if they sound intelligent