3 ms·

I don't doubt that high interest rates will cause unemployment to rise, but saying "layoffs are happening" is a little disingenuous. We are still in the midst o

I don't doubt that high interest rates will cause unemployment to rise, but saying "layoffs are happening" is a little disingenuous. We are still in the midst of one of the strongest labor markets in US history.

datavirtue 4y ago
Fact: economy is growing
rdtwo 4y ago
Employment is Lagging indicator. Almost always peaks right before a downturn
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  A million people left the labor force during COVID, either through death or retirement, not to mention parents who have reduced employment or left because of child care challenges. Very roughly, there’s a 300k worker shortage, and that will continue to grow year after year until 2034 where we get closer to a 900k worker shortage [1]. 10k Boomers retire each day. Can the Fed destroy demand/cool growth via the benchmark rate faster than workers leave the labor force (strengthening the labor market for those who remain)? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXp8Z7_Y4Bw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXp8Z7_Y4Bw