4 ms·

I, a random anon from the Internet, think SP500 is heading for 2400 or even lower (1600ish?), which is great news, as millenials will get a chance to buy stocks

I, a random anon from the Internet, think SP500 is heading for 2400 or even lower (1600ish?), which is great news, as millenials will get a chance to buy stocks at a low price.

recursivedoubts 4y ago
looking at the pullbacks in 2000 and 2008, there is a non-trivial chance that the S&P will bottom sub-1000
- apples_oranges 4y ago
  yeah who knows, in the long run it will go way up of course, as the USA and other industrial nations will grow and grow..
  - recursivedoubts 4y ago
    that's not clear either, w/population growth set to reverse in the next 20-30 years consider the Nikkei... no crystal ball
- chasd00 4y ago
  Do you remember the financial crisis? In 2008 Paulson was literally on his knees in front of Pelosi begging for congress to do something. I doubt we're headed there again.
  - recursivedoubts 4y ago
    people doubted we were heading there in 2007, too ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I own no crystal ball
- babyshake 4y ago
  Did the S&P drop by 80% or more in those recessions?
Workaccount2 4y ago
You probably don't realize it, most don't, but your statement is contradictory. It's the same line with the housing market doomers "Prices will crash and I will be able to buy a nice home". If something is crashing, it means no one can or will buy it. If people can buy something or want to buy it, it will no crash.
- chmod775 4y ago
  > You probably don't realize it, most don't, but your statement is contradictory. It's not. > If something is crashing, it means no one can or will buy it. [..] If people can buy something or want to buy it, it will no crash. You're only looking at demand as if that's everything that determines price. There's also the supply side to consider, as well as the fact that markets aren't a formless thing with no fixed location existing in a vacuum. Price crashes can also happen because of competition destroying high margins or production simply becoming way cheaper. Price crashes don't have to be related to demand: it can simply be a matter of companies undercutting each other. A third way for price crashes to happen is investors buying up a commodity, increasing the price. This will likely cause production to ramp up to compensate, slowly driving the price back down. Once investors see the price beginning to drop, they may sell in a panic. You're left with a market that is flooded by investors trying divest themselves amidst an overproduction, causing a price crash. The consumer never went away or was unwilling to buy though! Averaged over the entire timespan, demand never changed.
AnimalMuppet 4y ago
If that happens, will millenials have any money with which to buy stocks?

I, a random anon from the Internet, think SP500 is heading for 2400 or even lower (1600ish?), which is great news, as millenials will get a chance to buy stocks at a low price.

recursivedoubts 4y ago

looking at the pullbacks in 2000 and 2008, there is a non-trivial chance that the S&P will bottom sub-1000

apples_oranges 4y ago
yeah who knows, in the long run it will go way up of course, as the USA and other industrial nations will grow and grow..
- recursivedoubts 4y ago
  that's not clear either, w/population growth set to reverse in the next 20-30 years consider the Nikkei... no crystal ball
chasd00 4y ago
Do you remember the financial crisis? In 2008 Paulson was literally on his knees in front of Pelosi begging for congress to do something. I doubt we're headed there again.
- recursivedoubts 4y ago
  people doubted we were heading there in 2007, too ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I own no crystal ball
babyshake 4y ago
Did the S&P drop by 80% or more in those recessions?

Workaccount2 4y ago

You probably don't realize it, most don't, but your statement is contradictory. It's the same line with the housing market doomers "Prices will crash and I will be able to buy a nice home". If something is crashing, it means no one can or will buy it. If people can buy something or want to buy it, it will no crash.

chmod775 4y ago
> You probably don't realize it, most don't, but your statement is contradictory. It's not. > If something is crashing, it means no one can or will buy it. [..] If people can buy something or want to buy it, it will no crash. You're only looking at demand as if that's everything that determines price. There's also the supply side to consider, as well as the fact that markets aren't a formless thing with no fixed location existing in a vacuum. Price crashes can also happen because of competition destroying high margins or production simply becoming way cheaper. Price crashes don't have to be related to demand: it can simply be a matter of companies undercutting each other. A third way for price crashes to happen is investors buying up a commodity, increasing the price. This will likely cause production to ramp up to compensate, slowly driving the price back down. Once investors see the price beginning to drop, they may sell in a panic. You're left with a market that is flooded by investors trying divest themselves amidst an overproduction, causing a price crash. The consumer never went away or was unwilling to buy though! Averaged over the entire timespan, demand never changed.

AnimalMuppet 4y ago

If that happens, will millenials have any money with which to buy stocks?