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Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade
- _ea1k 4y agoWhen people start making these predictions, its often a good time to buy.
- ethanbond 4y agoBut in turn when people make these predictions, it’s often a good time to sell…
- Arubis 4y agoIt’s almost as if anyone with the actual ability to predict a market movement has a disincentive to talk about it in public.
- weego 4y agoYou're flying dangerously close to buying into the idea that anyone working in markets actually has any meaningful ability to predict, and isn't just semi-gambling in a semi-rigged environment.
- Arubis 4y agoI don't especially mind brushing up against that idea so long as my feet are firmly planted in "...and _that person is not me_" firmament.
- foobarian 4y ago^ market forces at work
- baq 4y agothis is not 'people', this is the druck. pay attention...
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y agoIt's always a good time to buy. Stay the course.
- kubb 4y agothat would actually be great, the volatility and speculation only helps a narrow group of dedicated traders. as long as stock market saves you from inflation, you should be happy with your investment
- fny 4y agoYou do realize that the stock market will not save you from inflation if it remains flat for a decade?
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- Victerius 4y agoPeople need to stop trying to find the best portfolio to keep up with inflation. It's futile. Just be happy if your portfolio appreciates 3% in a year, like our forefathers were.
- seibelj 4y agoProperty is great because the government subsidizes fixed rate 30 year mortgages - you beat inflation on the backs of tax payers. I own a lot of property!
- davidkuennen 4y agoBut it kind of does, since you don't own cash but a portion of a company. As long as that company does well for the next 10 years and doesn't go to shit the "value" stays the same. 10 shares of Company X are still worth 10 shares of Company X in the future in that case. But the monetary value of those shares will most likely change based on inflation.
- jrochkind1 4y agoWell, that was my question, if "kind of flat" means keeping up with inflation at least, or not. Although my understanding of the standard model of how privatized "saving for retirement" via investment funds works, is that you better have returns at more than inflation, especially in the early part of your career, if you want to be able to retire.
- rurban 4y agoI'll still wait a few months to buy, but the green energy changes will improve everything. No more oil/gas dependencies!
- peteradio 4y agoIs this sarcasm? Few months before green energy turns the ship around? Oil/gas is the backbone of most economy, dare say we will remain dependent.
- epistasis 4y agoI think the poster is saying he expects the stock market to fall a few more months before turning around. Not that green energy will complete its transition in a few months. If you think oil/gas will demand the backbone, you ask yourself why none of the oil and gas majors are drastically expanding their production capacity during this time of high prices. Oil and gas, and their investors, are planning for their phase out, and nobody wants to be holding on to a new asset that has a lifetime of 10-20 years but won't have value after five. Oil and gas companies and investors know that fossil fuels are on the way out, it surprised me that the general public doesn't know this.
- peteradio 4y ago> why none of the oil and gas majors are drastically expanding their production capacity during this time of high prices Because its a short-lived blip? Didn't we just have record lows less than 2-years ago?
- epistasis 4y agoWhen there's an influx of cash like now, it's usually an ideal time to invest that money in new production because you have the cash in hand. General consensus is that new development should be small and only in a few types of projects, due to the transition under way. For example see this BCG report (PDF): https://web-assets.bcg.com/5e/73/dcd6e1544ba2a964e6c082d684e8/bcg-oil-and-gas-investment-in-the-new-risk-environment-dec-2020.pdf https://web-assets.bcg.com/5e/73/dcd6e1544ba2a964e6c082d684e...
- fny 4y agoFor those who don't know, Druckenmiller is also very well known for changing his mind the minute facts change which is one of the hallmarks of good trading.
- snarf21 4y agoVery true. Plus this is nonsense. Interest rates are still far too low. There is wayyyyy too much money floating around in the system and global growth has slowed. That money will be chasing returns wherever they can find them and that has been the market and now real estate. Both of these will be net up over the next 10 years. It will be choppy for a few years as inflation is battled and interest rates rise a little bit more.
- peteradio 4y agoInflation adjusted won't that look rather flat or negative? Where are these real returns going to be coming from? Hot stocks haven't been paying appropriate dividends for the last two decades.
- foobarian 4y agoI wonder how much the end Moore's law is a part of this current slowdown. It would make sense to me that its impact would lag a while, and would eventually catch up.
- mostly_harmless 4y agoI don't know if it's moores law. except for servers, CPUs are mostly running near idle. My intuition would say tech saturation would make more of a difference. That is, worldwide pretty much everyone have now has adopted a computer and all businesses have automated the low hanging fruit.
- foobarian 4y agoYou put in words what I was thinking. Thank you for your comment :-)
- newaccount2021 4y ago
- mikeodds 4y agoPrime time to raise money to build a society based off Logan’s Run to deal with everyone that won’t be able to afford to retire in that scenario
- iforgetti 4y agoFor those of us still in the first half of our working careers, this would be a welcome development.
- jrochkind1 4y agoHow do you figure? I was thinking the opposite: that the model of saving for retirement via investment accounts requires good returns in the early part of your career, so the smaller amounts of money you can afford to put away for your relatively smaller early career salary can compound over your career length to be enough for retirement.
- francisofascii 4y agoAssume for a moment that stocks are currently overvalued from a historical perspective. So it is better if they stay flat for a while and get back to normal valuations so when you buy them each month, they are not overvalued. If they were to go up in the next few years, they would become even more overvalued and you would be buying them at even more overvalued prices.
- markvdb 4y agoLet me guess OP's reasoning. Most of the HN audience is privileged class by courtesy of being tech savvy. Unlike many others, most of us can keep investing even in less fortunate times when others cannot. Exactly those investments might yield extra high long term returns.
- iforgetti 4y agoWhat others wrote was pretty much my reasoning but a bit further, over the very long run (30+ years) markets will revert to mean performance. If you have strong gains in the first half of your career then when you are in your peak earning years, investments will be more expensive at time of purchase. As a result when you are investing the most, returns on that principle will be lower.
- bart_spoon 4y ago
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago"There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period" From another article on '66-'82: > The Dow went sideways, but the S&P actually earned a respectable 6.8% return in that time. 6.8% is hardly apocalyptic. The S&P 500 usually averages 10% over long timescales. His former hedge fund also delivered an annual average rate of return of 30% from 1986 to 2010. What an absolute unit.
- bitshiftfaced 4y agoI don't know about apocalyptic, but US Treasury bonds either exceeded that return, or trailed not far behind for much of that period. If you look at the S&P at a reward/risk perspective, it wasn't very attractive at that period of time.
- kritiko 4y ago6.8% with 6.8% inflation, according to that article. Edit: just got to the conclusion of this article, from 2014: "Many smart people in the industry are predicting lower investment returns over the next decade or so." Funny.
- reedf1 4y ago"The S&P 500 usually averages 10% over long timescales." This is a pretty meaningless statement. 6.8% over 10-20 years is certainly a nightmare scenario for most investors and is probably a significant loss against the risk free rate over the same period.
- concinds 4y ago10% per year, not 10%. 6% in 16 years is utterly pathetic.
- jxf 4y ago> “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” he said in an interview with Alex Karp, CEO of software and A.I. firm Palantir. Adjusting for inflation, the stock market was not "flat" during this period [0]. The DJIA, for example, closed at an effective price of 9,160.41 in January 1966 and closed at an effective price of 3,176.25 in December 1982. That's a 65% drop, which is a pretty big stretch to call "flat". [0]: https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historic...
- mvc 4y agoPresumably dividends would balance it out though.
- O__________O 4y agoDividends would balance out a 65% drop during the same period, how so?
- giantg2 4y agoI think we'd have to look at the data, but it's possible given that drop happened over an almost 20 year period. Dividends around 2-4% annual over that time could make up for it depending on specifics.
- treis 4y agoBy being more than a 65% drop
- teraflop 4y agoA 65% drop in price over 17 years is "only" about 6% per year. The S&P500 annual dividend yield during 1966-1982 was not much less than 6%, especially during the latter half of that period. If you look at an inflation-adjusted total return chart (as opposed to just price), the actual drop in investment value was much smaller. I think "flat" isn't a terrible way to describe it. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-to...
- mandeepj 4y ago
- pydry 4y agoI wondered if it wasnt a reference to Irving Fisher's "permanently high plateau" remark.
- bitshiftfaced 4y agoTell that to 1991 to 2010 Japan.
- apples_oranges 4y agoI, a random anon from the Internet, think SP500 is heading for 2400 or even lower (1600ish?), which is great news, as millenials will get a chance to buy stocks at a low price.
- recursivedoubts 4y agolooking at the pullbacks in 2000 and 2008, there is a non-trivial chance that the S&P will bottom sub-1000
- apples_oranges 4y agoyeah who knows, in the long run it will go way up of course, as the USA and other industrial nations will grow and grow..
- recursivedoubts 4y agothat's not clear either, w/population growth set to reverse in the next 20-30 years consider the Nikkei... no crystal ball
- chasd00 4y agoDo you remember the financial crisis? In 2008 Paulson was literally on his knees in front of Pelosi begging for congress to do something. I doubt we're headed there again.
- recursivedoubts 4y agopeople doubted we were heading there in 2007, too ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I own no crystal ball
- babyshake 4y agoDid the S&P drop by 80% or more in those recessions?
- Workaccount2 4y ago
- throwoutway 4y agoAt this point, I’m expecting both stagflation and a flat market for years to come. Odd that mortgage rate is above 6%, inflation is high, layoffs are happening, and yet the White House is pretending it’s not a recession and won’t say the word.
- Workaccount2 4y agoThe top 40% are unbelievably flush with cash and the job market is strong as ever (bloated tech companies don't count, their value was solely promises anyway). The fed is fighting to undo the QE it over did during the pandemic
- coldcode 4y agoI think it's unwinding the QE it did since 2008.
- boole1854 4y agoThey are nowhere near unwinding the QE since either the pandemic or 2008: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOSHO https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOSHO Why would they even try to undo 14 years of asset purchases? Their goal is only to reduce the growth in nominal spending in the economy so that it grows at around 4% annually (yielding an inflation rate of 2%). The goal is not to return nominal spending back to where it was in 2008, which would involve nearly a 50% cut from current levels.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y agoEmployment remains high on average.
- jhickok 4y agoI don't doubt that high interest rates will cause unemployment to rise, but saying "layoffs are happening" is a little disingenuous. We are still in the midst of one of the strongest labor markets in US history.
- ParksNet 4y agoWe need to drastically increase pension ages and even abandon retirement as a mainstream concept. Working part-time in 60s and 70s should be commonplace.
- diordiderot 4y agoAnd eliminate child labour laws. All these kids expecting free lunches and what not.
- efficax 4y agowhy even let people quit? perhaps labor should be mandatory on pain of death
- pydry 4y agoI think the investing goal for the next decade is to pick the asset class that will lose the least. Stocks wont do well, but that asset class could still be stocks.
- Kon-Peki 4y agoLet's say the market does what he is warning it will do: Dividend reinvestment will be a major component of you portfolio returns. So you need to focus on companies that pay dividends. Also, avoiding obvious scam companies. Hanging out here has already given you a picture of how to identify a certain class of such companies long before their IPO ;)
- max_ 4y ago> “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” Is there a resource that has the chart between ’66 & ’82 so I can have a look at what it was like?
- JKCalhoun 4y agoI played a bit with this: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DOWI/interactive-chart https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DOWI/interactive-cha... You can drag to scroll back for historical data.
- kritiko 4y agoJust found this article: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/06/1966-1982-stock-market-really-bad/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/06/1966-1982-stock-mar...
- mattbrewsbytes 4y agoAnd Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headlines like today on Yahoo Finance it states "Stock futures tumble on heels of grim warning from FedEx". So all players in the market are just selling everything across the market to the tune of -1.4% because FedEx is having issues? I question headlines in the financial sector, more often lately it feels like its just what they want you to believe to get you to take actions that benefit themselves. [0]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/bill-ackman-exits-market-hedges-uses-2-billion-he-made-to-buy-more-stocks-including-hilton.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/bill-ackman-exits-market-hed...
- JKCalhoun 4y agoYeah, but someday they'll be right.
- danjoredd 4y agoYeah but just because a broken clock is right twice a day doesn't mean you will keep looking at that clock
- daniel-cussen 4y agoYou shouldn't read those headlines. Both the ones walking you off a cliff in increasingly devious ways the interviews with Warren Buffett saying buy and hold which is a pessimal strategy, and the headlines announcing x happened because y as if you should think y leads x. It did not, they don't know that, news blogs get a pass in telling people false causes after the fact, dude it's purely made up and it's a guessing game to train you to guess as it suits them. Plato's Cave.
- lexapro 4y agoWhy is buy and hold a "pessimal strategy"?
- rq1 4y agoA broken clock is right twice a day.
- giantg2 4y agoTL;DR - nobody actually knows what the stock market is going to do, but everyone has a theory.
- tppiotrowski 4y agoPersonally, I wish it was as rewarding building or creating something as it is to invest in the stock market over the past decade. If you have capital it makes more sense to put it into stocks than opening a coffee shop or computer repair shop, etc. If the stock market stops paying out maybe we'll go back to trying to create value instead of profiting from value created by others.
- ModernMech 4y agoDepends on what you mean by "rewarding". I feel that building and creating is far more rewarding then clicking a button and watching a number go up. I hope others feel the same, because when everyone is clicking buttons and watching numbers, that's not something society can sustain.
- tppiotrowski 4y agoI meant financially rewarding. It feels like the person that bought S&P500 stocks ten years ago probably fared better financially than the average entrepreneur.
- altdataseller 4y agoIt's getting more rewarding to put into Treasury Bills, when it's paying 4% in interest as of today.
- caeril 4y agoThat's a really good yield, so you're only losing 4.3% annually on a real basis.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- returnInfinity 4y agostock market is a future indicator of economic activity, so if its down, it also an indicator that less coffee shops will be opened because of lack of capital
- pfortuny 4y agoAnd then suddenly someone comes up with, say, a working fusion reactor.
- chiffre01 4y agoLooks like this guy's been making these kind of predictions for at least the last 10 years: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druckenmiller-get-out-of-the-stock-market-own-gold.html https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druckenmiller-get-out-of-the... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W58zLwdDzM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W58zLwdDzM https://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/stanley-druckenmiller-heres-how-fed-bubble-will-end.html https://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/stanley-druckenmiller-heres-... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/federal-reserves-current-policy-will-end-badly-says-hedge-fund-manager-stanley-druckenmiller/articleshow/38581412.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/busi...
- melling 4y agoThis guy? One of the best traders in history. https://priceonomics.com/the-trade-of-the-century-when-george-soros-broke/ https://priceonomics.com/the-trade-of-the-century-when-georg... His streak was something like 25% or 30% over 30 years? The tide is definitely going out. The Fed created a huge bubble and everyone knew it. Fed Balance sheet at $9 trillion…
- danielmarkbruce 4y agowas. He has been making a lot of similar predictions for a while.
- Proven 4y ago
- anm89 4y agoYeah some clowns named Ray and Warren also keeps crying wolf about how the economy has issues too. These guys have no idea what they are talking about! I don't think they even trade.
- nprateem 4y agoBuffett has also been predicting the mother of all crashes since 2016. Lesson: never listen to experts unless you discover one with a time machine. Like they say, more wealth has been lost trying to time the market than in crashes.
- smm11 4y agoNot at all the same thing, but Gartner Research tore OS X apart in the late 90s, and said Apple was dead and walking.
- blantonl 4y agoGreat. One of my favorite investment strategies is to sell options, so I'll sit back for the decade and collect theta.
- anm89 4y agoThe amount of dumb takes in this thread is staggering. The level of dialogue here is 4chan level.
- fullshark 4y agoIf interest rates get high enough, putting money in bonds or even CDs will start to get appealing for sure. That used to be the primarily saving mechanism for consumers before policy required us all to speculate on stocks.
- nprateem 4y agoI don't know if it'll last a decade or only be flat, but my local city has lost a lot of upper end clothes stores and even a burger king. The high street has well and truly died and if even BK can't survive that's a bad sign
- mountainriver 4y agoI have a very different position on this. I think we will see the most growth we’ve ever seen in the next decade and it will be powered by AI. I think most of these investors don’t really understand how close we are to have very useful AI and what it’s impact will be. We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution
- jdhn 4y ago>We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution I was told that the "internet of things" would bring about unparalleled gains in manufacturing, and then that very quietly went away. I'm not holding my breath for AI to deliver on what IoT was supposed to do.
- mountainriver 4y agoAI isn't IOT, its the greatest invention we will have ever created
- vsareto 4y agoNone of the AI stuff really solves things like affordable housing or keeping wages up with inflation (or addressing inflation). It's not going to magically give us more energy without environmental impacts, or settle conflicts between countries. Building another AI-marketed SaaS only benefits people who don't need those benefits. In all likelihood, it'll just give us more bullshit jobs.
- zikduruqe 4y agohttps://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/david-graeber-bullshit-jobs https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/david-graeber-bullsh... I just heard of this the other day and it is in my queue.
- mountainriver 4y agoIt might, you can't possibly know that. If the coming AIs make humans twice as productive, then we've boosted our output tremendously.
- jrm4 4y agoPeople say this like it's a bad thing. Look, at a fundamental level, the stock market is a tool for letting people put money into risky ventures without them actually experiencing consequences for that risk. Given the extent to which the nature of information has changed, I'm comfortable no longer letting this be a driver of economic growth. You want to put money in a thing in the hopes of getting more money, fine. But do your homework -- if they screw up, yes, YOU have to pay.
- hcmacro 4y agoOTOH probably gonna be harder for startups and VCs to "pull one over" public investors and dumb management teams.
- iLoveOncall 4y agoIt's okay because iLoveOncall says it won't, and this guy knows as much as Stanley Dundermifflin here.
- seshagiric 4y agoWhen drive into my neighborhood downtown areas, I still see 'hiring' boards at lot of places with a healthy % advertising higher than minimum pay hourly rate. At the same time I also over heard complaints at grocery & super markets on how things are getting costlier. An elderly gentlemen was complaining how he used to get 3 items but now gets only 2 for the same price. Even as a layman, I think the high employment rates and healthy housing/stock markets mean there is lot of money in the market which is driving demand which in turn driving inflation. With Fed tightening up interest rates, money may stop flowing into the market yet and hence ease the demand eventually inflation. A likely side effect is companies have no money to fund growth and hence recession (and job cuts etc.). Next one year is going to be tight. However, its still a stretch to say the stock market will crash, stay flat etc. etc. I think these predictions are more media created (they are excellent click bait) than actual warnings from genius investors. For example, if you follow Michael Burry's tweet it's more of a rant or running commentary (combined with partisan view point) than doomsday predictions. The bigger problem in my opinion is partisan politics is stealing attention from more important problems. Dems are wrong with the number of freebies being thrown in but Reps are also wrong ignoring climate change (or kicking up the abortion repertoire). The checks and balances thing is not working currently.
- bigmattystyles 4y agoOnce you learn about Paul the octopus, it puts all off these predictions into perspective. Predictions have low reputations costs when wrong because the public will just forget about it. If he’s right, he’ll remind us at every chance he gets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus
- aaroninsf 4y agoNo one knows what the hell is going to happen, the only certainty is that compared to the long slowly-eroded geopolitical and economic stability of the late 20th century for the capitalist world, black swan events are much more likely and their impact much greater. The next few years may see Russia collapse. Or Russia use nuclear weapons to prevent ceding Crimea. We may see accelerated catastrophic climate change and knock-on effects like mass migration or as the Thai floods only a few years demonstrated, that knock out of critical infrastructure for our globalized economy is only one bad storm away. We may see low-level domestic terror campaigns in the USA dressed up as "civil war" or, we may see a de facto internal balkanization with erection of internal regulatory barriers to interstate commerce and logistics. We may see China's economy collapse with calls for historically-enshrined dynastic change resulting in internal chaos. We may see next-wave pandemics. Or maybe none of these things and the ship rights and we sail quickly forward into renewed economic prosperity. No one knows, least of all Stanley.
- dkrich 4y agoSaying the market was "flat" between 66 and 82 is a ridiculous oversimplification. There was a pretty strong bull market leading into 1973 which then began the worst bear market since the great depression, lasting until November of 1974. Then the market bounced and a strong bull market ensued. Net inflation and price over a long period one could argue the market was flat or down, sure, but on a year-to-year basis to argue there was no money to be made or lost holding stocks during this period is just wrong. If you were clever enough to get out of the market early in the 73-74 bear market and then get in relatively early after the November of 74 rebound, you'd have certainly had good returns. If you think that's just hindsight and nobody could've done that, read Marty Zweig's Winning on Wall Street where he has a section entirely devoted to that period and how he did avoid most of the drawdown.
- zackmorris 4y agoInvestment in general. After the global awakening, the rest of the world doesn't want to do our work for pennies on the dollar anymore. For example, Apple won't be able to enjoy high profits on the back of indentured servants at Foxconn. Marketplaces like app stores and Amazon won't be able to skim such high percentages from the people doing the actual work of making and shipping things. Even portals like Google will find that their best efforts can't keep up with the dizzying pace of technological improvements in areas like machine learning as tech becomes more and more democratized. I have a question about this: I perceive profit as theft because I've spent my life working for employers for pennies on the dollar too. I'm averse towards investing because I don't want to use people. What's a "fair" return on investment? 5%? 10%? Or is investment inherently usurious? I'm concerned that my unwillingness to invest could end up being a burden on Millennials and Gen Z, the same way that the Boomers refusing to invest in Gen X caused us many lost decades. Your experience may not have been like mine, but trust me, the proletariat/plebeians/paupers of the world are wrestling with this as one of the central issues this century. Can we have capitalism without exploitation, and if so, how will we accomplish that?
- fallingfrog 4y agoYou can’t have capitalism without exploitation. But I’m pessimistic on any sort of global awakening happening soon. Also, capitalism does some things well that have yet to be duplicated in other systems, so finding a viable replacement for capitalism will take trial and error. I don’t honestly know how to answer your moral question though, i have similar thoughts.
- 8jef 4y ago_he has a history of a _bearish bias_ that he has had to work around his whole career. _I like darkness_ he said._ Well, that's the only way to win long term at playing that game. Buy very very low and sit on it. It helps if you already have money. The bear feeds on the bull. Never be the bull.
- seydor 4y agoI predict it will go up, it will go down. On average it will be flat
- papichulo4 4y agoDoes anyone understand the "They’re like reformed smokers" comment? > “They’ve gone from printing a bunch of money, like driving a Porsche at 200 miles an hour, to not only taking the foot off the gas, but just slamming the brakes on.” I understand the Porsche example, but I don't understand the smoker reference.
- dafty4 4y agoThese headlines are such BS. The Russia-Ukraine war and energy crisis won’t be resolved in the next ten years? Give me a break.
- Damian21 4y ago[dead]