3 ms·

That's the LCOE perspective, but the costs for the end consumer include ancillary functions that the TSOs have to procure or build out themselves. So far I have

That's the LCOE perspective, but the costs for the end consumer include ancillary functions that the TSOs have to procure or build out themselves. So far I have not seen an electricity grid with a high penetration of renewables that has resulted in lower total costs, which isn't that weird considering the price for a highly distributed grid is complexity. Thermal pollution doesn't have to exist for newer plants, you can use the waste heat for district heating. If we assume there are no political forces that try to stop this (big if), then it becomes a purely economical calculation to see if it makes sense. In another comment you mentioned 40% capacity factor in a system with equal parts wind and solar. This seems a little high right now. The best performing offshore parks are around 55-60%, but it's usually lower. For onshore it's 25-35% and offshore is 35-50%.

Schroedingersat 4y ago
Have you got any solid info on current and projected total system costs? I can only find repetitions of a single UK somewhat optimistic study citing 10-14gbp (and limited in scope to 30% renewable mix) or vague fear mongering from fossil fuel interests.
- cinntaile 4y ago
  As you probably know, it's messy and not entirely straightforward to get any decent numbers on the whole picture. Which is my roundabout way of saying that my sources could be better, but I do believe it helps paint a picture. Total system costs will increase because of stabilization measures that need to be taken now that we're moving towards a grid with a lot of variability, this includes but is not limited to various types of storage and frequency stabilization. The increased transmission capacity between countries and an increased number of transmission cables to connect all the remote wind turbine parks to the grid will also add to the costs. [0] looks at Germany specifically, the report was put out by VDE which is a large technical branch organization [1]. Check out the slide on page 17 [2], it has projected wholesale costs for 2030. The median price isn't going down and the span is getting much bigger than during previous time periods. This doesn't show the total system costs, but we would clearly be in a grid with a high variability and this would result in cost increases as mentioned. This can be seen in [4], on page 16 they specifically mention "The rapid increase in investments in electricity distribution networks could moreover be correlated to the increase of the share of distributed electricity generation (especially from renewable energy sources) in the period and electrification in general." And yes, I know that correlation is not causation. There is also this report [3] that does look at the total picture. The conclusion there is that it is better to have a mix than 100% renewables basically. [0] https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/german-electricity-grid-upgrade-will-be-expensive-experts-warn/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/german-ele... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VDE_e.V https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VDE_e.V. [2] https://www.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/03082019%20CEPS_Rabago_Energy%20prices%20and%20costs%20in%20Europe.pdf https://www.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/03082019%20CE... [3] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261918312790 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191... [4] https://trinomics.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Final-Report-Network-Costs.pdf https://trinomics.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Final-Report...

Schroedingersat 4y ago

Have you got any solid info on current and projected total system costs? I can only find repetitions of a single UK somewhat optimistic study citing 10-14gbp (and limited in scope to 30% renewable mix) or vague fear mongering from fossil fuel interests.

cinntaile 4y ago
As you probably know, it's messy and not entirely straightforward to get any decent numbers on the whole picture. Which is my roundabout way of saying that my sources could be better, but I do believe it helps paint a picture. Total system costs will increase because of stabilization measures that need to be taken now that we're moving towards a grid with a lot of variability, this includes but is not limited to various types of storage and frequency stabilization. The increased transmission capacity between countries and an increased number of transmission cables to connect all the remote wind turbine parks to the grid will also add to the costs. [0] looks at Germany specifically, the report was put out by VDE which is a large technical branch organization [1]. Check out the slide on page 17 [2], it has projected wholesale costs for 2030. The median price isn't going down and the span is getting much bigger than during previous time periods. This doesn't show the total system costs, but we would clearly be in a grid with a high variability and this would result in cost increases as mentioned. This can be seen in [4], on page 16 they specifically mention "The rapid increase in investments in electricity distribution networks could moreover be correlated to the increase of the share of distributed electricity generation (especially from renewable energy sources) in the period and electrification in general." And yes, I know that correlation is not causation. There is also this report [3] that does look at the total picture. The conclusion there is that it is better to have a mix than 100% renewables basically. [0] https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/german-electricity-grid-upgrade-will-be-expensive-experts-warn/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/german-ele... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VDE_e.V https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VDE_e.V. [2] https://www.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/03082019%20CEPS_Rabago_Energy%20prices%20and%20costs%20in%20Europe.pdf https://www.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/03082019%20CE... [3] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261918312790 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191... [4] https://trinomics.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Final-Report-Network-Costs.pdf https://trinomics.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Final-Report...