3 ms·

For whatever reason, Gary doesn't even mention this, but from reading Scott's post, I don't think I agree that it even got 1/5, let alone 3/5. The bell is not o

For whatever reason, Gary doesn't even mention this, but from reading Scott's post, I don't think I agree that it even got 1/5, let alone 3/5. The bell is not on the llama's tail in any of the examples, though it is very close to the tail in one. The robot is either looking over the cat or in an unrelated direction, never at the cat. None of those basketball pictures shows a robot farmer. The fact that one may be wearing a hat doesn't make it a farmer. He says he's being generous because he believes it would have gotten a farmer more easily than robot farmer, which may be true, but a human artist would easily be able to depict a robot farmer. At least one other key to making a bet like this fair is that it needs to be arbitrated by a third party. He shouldn't get to decide himself if he won or not.

kbelder 4y ago
I agree with you, that 3/5 is stretching. This seems premature. But, at the rate we're seeing progress, I don't think there's any doubt at this point that top of the line models will be able to do all the proposed examples by June 2025. In fact, by June 2025 I bet that millions of people will be able to generate those images on their home computers.
- aetherson 4y ago
  A lot of people in 2016 looked at the rapid progress of driverless cars in the few years prior and declared that there was no doubt we'd have full autonomy by 2022.
  - trention 4y ago
    >by 2022 Make that 2020. And in 2012 I was personally told by a startuper in the field that I would be able to buy L5 in 2017.
    - ben_w 4y ago
      In 2009 I was certain we'd have cars with no driving seat available for general purchase by 2018.
- dane-pgp 4y ago
  Perhaps you should reach out to Gary Marcus and offer him the chance to take the other side of that version of the bet. If you're really confident, you could change the conditions such that 5 out of 10 images (for 3/5 prompts) are required to depict the described scene. That would alleviate some of the concerns around cherry-picking. A suitable home for such a public bet would be: https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/

kbelder 4y ago

I agree with you, that 3/5 is stretching. This seems premature. But, at the rate we're seeing progress, I don't think there's any doubt at this point that top of the line models will be able to do all the proposed examples by June 2025. In fact, by June 2025 I bet that millions of people will be able to generate those images on their home computers.

aetherson 4y ago
A lot of people in 2016 looked at the rapid progress of driverless cars in the few years prior and declared that there was no doubt we'd have full autonomy by 2022.
- trention 4y ago
  >by 2022 Make that 2020. And in 2012 I was personally told by a startuper in the field that I would be able to buy L5 in 2017.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    In 2009 I was certain we'd have cars with no driving seat available for general purchase by 2018.
dane-pgp 4y ago
Perhaps you should reach out to Gary Marcus and offer him the chance to take the other side of that version of the bet. If you're really confident, you could change the conditions such that 5 out of 10 images (for 3/5 prompts) are required to depict the described scene. That would alleviate some of the concerns around cherry-picking. A suitable home for such a public bet would be: https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/