Tons of "exceptionally talented" programmers got their respective startups nowhere. And the "exceptionally good company" -> success, borders on tautology, beca

Tons of "exceptionally talented" programmers got their respective startups nowhere. And the "exceptionally good company" -> success, borders on tautology, because how else do you measure an exceptionally good company besides success? """It's only gambling in the way a professional poker player gambles""" Yeah, you influence your fate and all. But poker is even less random than startup success --at least randomness there is constrained, will on a startup you have tons of sources of randomness: The startup founders, the employees, the economy in general, the society in general (fads, etc), investors, the client pool, you name it...