4 ms·

One thing I've always been curious about is why the opportunity created by this sort of thing doesn't seem to be taken advantage of. To take Iran as an example

by jhugo 4y ago

One thing I've always been curious about is why the opportunity created by this sort of thing doesn't seem to be taken advantage of. To take Iran as an example: when US sanctions prevent Boeing or Airbus from selling to them, I can understand why Embraer doesn't step in and offer to supply planes, because they are afraid of secondary sanctions affecting their business with the rest of the world. But tech isn't like aircraft production — building a GitHub, Okta or Auth0 clone is a chunk of work but hardly infeasible — hell, most companies routinely built a partial Auth0 clone in-house until not that long ago. Many still do. So why don't we see alternatives pop up that don't block Iran? It's a niche, but you get the whole niche to yourself, and Iran is not a small market. From a legal perspective you would set up somewhere like UAE where they have a good climate for business but regularly do business with Iran, so that part shouldn't be an issue. Network effects are a factor, but when you're blocked from the popular platform, you have a bigger incentive than usual to consider the less-popular one.

k__ 4y ago
There are alternatives. Problem is, that people think they are a grift.
pritambarhate 4y ago
Most of the time these sanctions are global in nature and various treaties that US has with different countries prevent companies in those countries also doing business with sanctioned nations.
- jhugo 4y ago
  Sanctions are absolutely not global in nature. Iran trades extensively with countries in the region.
greendesk 4y ago
Theoretically, anyone can do that. Why would people in Iran spend money on such a bespoke solution? Anyone who does that has to pay off other people too.
aljgz 4y ago
In Iran there are alternatives to many services. There are domestic cloud providers, a domestic android marketplace, there was a domestic Apple marketplace (and will show up again when Apple opens the platform to alternative stores), alternative video sharing platform, etc. Working in/with Iran has other difficulties in addition to sanctions. Iranian government has total control over what services from outside Iran are accessible to Iranians. They also use this control elaborately, in some fields whitelisting services rather than blacklisting them. So if you want to work with Iran from outside, you are always at the mercy of the government to block you. If working from inside, you are under pressure to share people's private information with the government en masse. You have no way to resist that. The courts are puppets, price of resistance can be anywhere from takeover of your business, to prison, to death. Oh and from outside, you have the problem of exchange rate: due to 40+years of 40+% inflation, what you earn from there cannot even cover your costs outside the country, unless you do the entire business from another country with similar economy.
locallost 4y ago
You don't even need to jump through this many hoops - somebody from Iran can just do it. And maybe they do, but overall I don't think the market is that big. All of these companies operate globally because it's otherwise difficult to make a profit. In other news, setting up businesses that go around US sanctions is not something the US will just wave off. Bullies don't accept their authority questioned.
- jhugo 4y ago
  > And maybe they do, but overall I don't think the market is that big. Before Trump nixed the JCPoA, Iran had a firm order with Boeing for $16.6 billion worth of aircraft, and a firm order with Airbus for $25 billion worth of aircraft. Taken together, that's one of the largest aircraft orders of all time. Iran is not a small market. > In other news, setting up businesses that go around US sanctions is not something the US will just wave off. Bullies don't accept their authority questioned. Businesses in the UAE regularly trade with Iran (and Russia, for that matter) in the normal course of business.
  - cpursley 4y ago
    Once Russia resolves their supply chain issues and market substitution on sanctioned inputs, Iran will be a big aircraft market for them. It's not widely known, but Russia has several new commercial jet designs in production.
    - sam_lowry_ 4y ago
      SSJ-100 and MC-21, both obviously made mostly from imported parts. SSJ-100 is operational with limited success, MC-21 is closer to vaporware.
zeroth32 4y ago
> building a GitHub, Okta or Auth0 clone Because it is is not necessary. Setting up something like Github onsite takes 1 hour. Network effect really is overrated. Where it hurts are payment systems, credit cards etc.. And there are alternatives.

by jhugo 4y ago

k__ 4y ago

There are alternatives. Problem is, that people think they are a grift.

pritambarhate 4y ago

Most of the time these sanctions are global in nature and various treaties that US has with different countries prevent companies in those countries also doing business with sanctioned nations.

jhugo 4y ago
Sanctions are absolutely not global in nature. Iran trades extensively with countries in the region.

greendesk 4y ago

Theoretically, anyone can do that. Why would people in Iran spend money on such a bespoke solution? Anyone who does that has to pay off other people too.

aljgz 4y ago

In Iran there are alternatives to many services. There are domestic cloud providers, a domestic android marketplace, there was a domestic Apple marketplace (and will show up again when Apple opens the platform to alternative stores), alternative video sharing platform, etc. Working in/with Iran has other difficulties in addition to sanctions. Iranian government has total control over what services from outside Iran are accessible to Iranians. They also use this control elaborately, in some fields whitelisting services rather than blacklisting them. So if you want to work with Iran from outside, you are always at the mercy of the government to block you. If working from inside, you are under pressure to share people's private information with the government en masse. You have no way to resist that. The courts are puppets, price of resistance can be anywhere from takeover of your business, to prison, to death. Oh and from outside, you have the problem of exchange rate: due to 40+years of 40+% inflation, what you earn from there cannot even cover your costs outside the country, unless you do the entire business from another country with similar economy.

locallost 4y ago

You don't even need to jump through this many hoops - somebody from Iran can just do it. And maybe they do, but overall I don't think the market is that big. All of these companies operate globally because it's otherwise difficult to make a profit. In other news, setting up businesses that go around US sanctions is not something the US will just wave off. Bullies don't accept their authority questioned.

jhugo 4y ago
> And maybe they do, but overall I don't think the market is that big. Before Trump nixed the JCPoA, Iran had a firm order with Boeing for $16.6 billion worth of aircraft, and a firm order with Airbus for $25 billion worth of aircraft. Taken together, that's one of the largest aircraft orders of all time. Iran is not a small market. > In other news, setting up businesses that go around US sanctions is not something the US will just wave off. Bullies don't accept their authority questioned. Businesses in the UAE regularly trade with Iran (and Russia, for that matter) in the normal course of business.
- cpursley 4y ago
  Once Russia resolves their supply chain issues and market substitution on sanctioned inputs, Iran will be a big aircraft market for them. It's not widely known, but Russia has several new commercial jet designs in production.
  - sam_lowry_ 4y ago
    SSJ-100 and MC-21, both obviously made mostly from imported parts. SSJ-100 is operational with limited success, MC-21 is closer to vaporware.

zeroth32 4y ago

> building a GitHub, Okta or Auth0 clone Because it is is not necessary. Setting up something like Github onsite takes 1 hour. Network effect really is overrated. Where it hurts are payment systems, credit cards etc.. And there are alternatives.