3 ms·

Even with the "low" death numbers right now (averaging between 400 and 500 people a day), it is still times worse than the worst flu epidemic in recent decades!

Even with the "low" death numbers right now (averaging between 400 and 500 people a day), it is still times worse than the worst flu epidemic in recent decades! Nevertheless, they will not be that low in the months from October to March, so this would be 4-5 times the worst flu with an epidemic "under control"! However, what if the virus reinvents the high mortality of SARS or MERS combined with being the second most contagious virus known to science? Again, this is nowhere close to the flu and far from over!

throwaway1777 4y ago
4-5 times worse than flu is fine. If it mutates to be more deadly like sars we would obviously change strategies and need a new vaccine for that.
- nikolay 4y ago
  Not exactly - there's enough data that each infection accumulates damage. This is not the flu and you're not back to where you were before the COVID-19 episode.
  - kevin_thibedeau 4y ago
    Influenza was significantly more lethal before the 50s.
    - nikolay 4y ago
      So, we have 30 years to wait until SARS-CoV-2 becomes like the flu?
  - Lumbolol 4y ago
    Each time you catch the flu you also accumulate damage. Same with every disease. Just because you feel back to normal after getting over an illness it doesn't mean there isn't a permanent hit taken in terms of future repair & recovery capacity. I suppose the argument is that Covid-19 causes more long term damage in many people when compared to other similar illnesses? That's interesting, but part of me wonders if this is just a false flag due to how much research there is going into covid.
    - EdwardDiego 4y ago
      Glad we don't have to worry about Long Covid because you said it's the same as every other disease. Hey scientists, you can stop studying it, a person on HN has cracked it. Why would you even think that it's a false flag? I'm lost as to your logical progression.
- EdwardDiego 4y ago
  ...for a given (and very odd) value of "fine".
aetherson 4y ago
It's been sub-400 per day (average) since Sept 4th, using the CDC numbers.
- nikolay 4y ago
  I use Our World in Data, which is HN-backed and highly respected: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2022-08-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA%7EGBR%7ECAN%7EDEU%7EITA%7EIND https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
rossdavidh 4y ago
Well, it will never be "over". This is how it is now. It's not like it was ever ok that the flu killed tens of thousands of people every year in the US alone. It's just not a thing that is going to be going away, so the tradeoff of temporarily staying home or wearing masks or etc. is different than if you think it will be gone in a few months.

throwaway1777 4y ago

4-5 times worse than flu is fine. If it mutates to be more deadly like sars we would obviously change strategies and need a new vaccine for that.

nikolay 4y ago
Not exactly - there's enough data that each infection accumulates damage. This is not the flu and you're not back to where you were before the COVID-19 episode.
- kevin_thibedeau 4y ago
  Influenza was significantly more lethal before the 50s.
  - nikolay 4y ago
    So, we have 30 years to wait until SARS-CoV-2 becomes like the flu?
- Lumbolol 4y ago
  Each time you catch the flu you also accumulate damage. Same with every disease. Just because you feel back to normal after getting over an illness it doesn't mean there isn't a permanent hit taken in terms of future repair & recovery capacity. I suppose the argument is that Covid-19 causes more long term damage in many people when compared to other similar illnesses? That's interesting, but part of me wonders if this is just a false flag due to how much research there is going into covid.
  - EdwardDiego 4y ago
    Glad we don't have to worry about Long Covid because you said it's the same as every other disease. Hey scientists, you can stop studying it, a person on HN has cracked it. Why would you even think that it's a false flag? I'm lost as to your logical progression.
EdwardDiego 4y ago
...for a given (and very odd) value of "fine".

aetherson 4y ago

It's been sub-400 per day (average) since Sept 4th, using the CDC numbers.

nikolay 4y ago
I use Our World in Data, which is HN-backed and highly respected: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2022-08-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA%7EGBR%7ECAN%7EDEU%7EITA%7EIND https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

rossdavidh 4y ago

Well, it will never be "over". This is how it is now. It's not like it was ever ok that the flu killed tens of thousands of people every year in the US alone. It's just not a thing that is going to be going away, so the tradeoff of temporarily staying home or wearing masks or etc. is different than if you think it will be gone in a few months.