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It's been fascinating for the last couple of years to see how these daily armchair epidemiologist threads have transitioned from largely in support of vaccines

It's been fascinating for the last couple of years to see how these daily armchair epidemiologist threads have transitioned from largely in support of vaccines to now largely against them. It seems there is some natural filtering at play. People looking for rational informed discussion about covid have realized it's no longer on HN, so they just don't participate anymore. Meanwhile,those who think this is all a giant conspiracy have found fellow travellers with bottomless cynicism, and those people now dominate these threads.

nope96 4y ago
Adversaries of the west want us to be unvaccinated and sick. Knowing what we know about "troll farms", I would not be surprised if there is an effort by some states to discredit the vaccine on English speaking forums.
- version_five 4y ago
  It's really funny to see this kind of covid hero discussion where one accuses people who aren't ok with vaccine policies of being "conspiracy theorists" (ignoring the difference between disagreement with compelled vaccination and believing in some imagined conspiracy) and then getting a reply theorizing that there is a conspiracy amongst "adversaries of the west" that's driving disagreement with authoritarian vaccine policy. You can't make this stuff up
  - nope96 4y ago
    "authoritarian vaccine policy", what are you talking about?
    - rajup 4y ago
      Need (or at least used to need) a vaccine to work, eat and travel in the USA sounds authoritarian to me, I believe that's what the GP was taking about.
    - OrvalWintermute 4y ago
      > "authoritarian vaccine policy", what are you talking about? The class action lawsuits, and all the healthcare providers, primarily nurses, fired for refusing the vaccine. All this weirdness around having to write cases for exemption, being tracked in a database, among other things.
  - 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
    https://www.state.gov/russias-pillars-of-disinformation-and-propaganda-report/ https://www.state.gov/russias-pillars-of-disinformation-and-... > The media multiplier effect can, at times, create disinformation storms with potentially dangerous effects for those Russia perceives as adversaries at the international, national, and local level. In the past, Russia has leveraged this dynamic to shield itself from criticism for its involvement in malign activity. This approach also allows Russia to be opportunistic, such as with COVID-19, where it has used the global pandemic as a hook to push longstanding disinformation and propaganda narratives. Screenshot of a Geopolitica.ru article promoting conspiracy theories around Bill Gates. > Bill Gates is linked to the COVID-19 outbreak and uses the pandemic to implant microchips “in whole of humanity [sic].” COVID-19 vaccines are a fraud spearheaded by Gates and Big Pharma. https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/io/news/virality-project-final-report https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/io/news/virality-project-fina... > While all nations have engaged in some form of diplomacy or messaging related to vaccines, the Virality Project focused on observing state media and social media networks linked to Russia, China, and Iran. These three nations not only promoted their own efforts, but also attempted to undermine their rivals. It's not a conspiracy.
    - Dah00n 4y ago
      I don't disagree with you but using US sources when talking about Russian disinformation is like using Russian sources when talking about US disinformation.
    - BrainVirus 4y ago
      This flavor of argument-by-insinuation is getting really, really old. Dismissing people or statement because they sound vaguely similar to some foreign source is in itself an obvious propaganda technique that uses exactly the same mentality as the dumbest conspiracy theories out there.
      - 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
        No. The poster said: > I would not be surprised if there is an effort by some states to discredit the vaccine on English speaking forums. Their claim was that adversaries are spreading vaccine disinformation. This is backed up by evidence. The only claim being made is that adversaries are doing this.
  - johnchristopher 4y ago
    I sat with people who told me they were hesitant to vaccinate, that they heard different things left and right and didn't know what to do and would wait until it was mandatory to decide if they would get the vaccine or not. This went on for months. I didn't push them to vaccinate or anything like that, I decided it was better to keep quiet about it and maintain the relationship. Then one day I realized they were gaslighting me, organizing protests against covid measures and to regain their right to party, circulating fake news among themselves about how our government head was running pedophile ring and how the deaths were fake. etc., when suddenly they shouted at me how the government was making their life hell on purpose. I cut them off. I realized there were strong parallels with the behavior of cult members I knew long ago. They lie. They lie to appear open-minded, hesitant. Like random Chinese posters discussing alternate interpretation of Tien An Men ("it was a western fabricated lie!" "ah thanks, I never thought about that and it's intriguing, thanks for offering a more reasonable interpretation". Now when I smell someone is using the same tactics I flip off. But on HN I am not even bothering anymore. Conversations about long covid looks like conversation with covid deniers from two years ago and it almost always end up in dictionary/akshually cherry-picking battle. All that to say that, yeah, I believe there's a lot of conspiracy theorists among people who aren't OK with Covid vaccine policies. /rant
- jonathanstrange 4y ago
  What you say is true and has been corroborated by intelligence reports. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-disinformation-campaign-aims-to-undermine-confidence-in-pfizer-other-covid-19-vaccines-u-s-officials-say-11615129200 https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-disinformation-campaign...
somenameforme 4y ago
Information and knowledge on the effectiveness and side effects of the vaccines has changed in a rather extreme fashion since the earlier phase of the pandemic. And the virus itself has also changed in a rather extreme way since the earlier phase. Why would you expect peoples views, in aggregate, to not similarly change?
reducesuffering 4y ago
> It's been fascinating for the last couple of years to see how these daily armchair epidemiologist threads have transitioned from largely in support of vaccines to now largely against them. Yes, it has. Although the people haven't changed, the information has, and the most stubborn of people are still defending their initial thesis without any ability to re-examine their priors if they were wrong and actually doing very messed up things to their fellow citizens. They are dug in; because to do otherwise would be having to face guilt.
- Kiro 4y ago
  The fact that you're getting downvoted just reinforces your point. People here are thinking they are "following the science" while in reality their narrative is so outdated that it's scary. Even r/coronavirus has a more sober view now.
jonathanstrange 4y ago
I think you're right about the reasons for the decline. Most people have learned enough about Covid now to be able to see how good their health systems reacted (in my country, the response was outstanding). They're vaccinated and don't care about Covid any longer. These people participate less in threads about Covid now, so the percentage of fringe positions will increase. However, I want to point out that HN was really good in the beginning. I knew about the pandemic earlier than any of my colleagues and gave some advice about cancelling events that sounded ominous then but turned out to be excellent. I even was able to predict the case numbers reliably during the exponential growth phase in early 2020, using my own calculations. All of that thanks to HN. Early discussions from January to April 2020 on HN were quite insightful, as were later discussions of possible medications and therapies by some of the rich hypochondriacs on HN. I agree that HN is now useless for Covid-related discussions and has mostly turned into unscientific antivax garbage. But it was very useful during the beginning of the pandemic.
nope96 4y ago
> People looking for rational informed discussion about covid have realized it's no longer on HN, so they just don't participate anymore. Meanwhile,those who think this is all a giant conspiracy have found fellow travellers with bottomless cynicism, and those people now dominate these threads. My reply, which got flagged for some reason: Adversaries of the west want us to be unvaccinated and sick. Knowing what we know about "troll farms", I would not be surprised if there is an effort by some states to discredit the vaccine on English speaking forums. I'll add more to make it more clear I wasn't talking only about anti-vaccine: These troll farms play both sides. They want discussion forums to be toxic.

nope96 4y ago

Adversaries of the west want us to be unvaccinated and sick. Knowing what we know about "troll farms", I would not be surprised if there is an effort by some states to discredit the vaccine on English speaking forums.

version_five 4y ago
It's really funny to see this kind of covid hero discussion where one accuses people who aren't ok with vaccine policies of being "conspiracy theorists" (ignoring the difference between disagreement with compelled vaccination and believing in some imagined conspiracy) and then getting a reply theorizing that there is a conspiracy amongst "adversaries of the west" that's driving disagreement with authoritarian vaccine policy. You can't make this stuff up
- nope96 4y ago
  "authoritarian vaccine policy", what are you talking about?
  - rajup 4y ago
    Need (or at least used to need) a vaccine to work, eat and travel in the USA sounds authoritarian to me, I believe that's what the GP was taking about.
  - OrvalWintermute 4y ago
    > "authoritarian vaccine policy", what are you talking about? The class action lawsuits, and all the healthcare providers, primarily nurses, fired for refusing the vaccine. All this weirdness around having to write cases for exemption, being tracked in a database, among other things.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
  https://www.state.gov/russias-pillars-of-disinformation-and-propaganda-report/ https://www.state.gov/russias-pillars-of-disinformation-and-... > The media multiplier effect can, at times, create disinformation storms with potentially dangerous effects for those Russia perceives as adversaries at the international, national, and local level. In the past, Russia has leveraged this dynamic to shield itself from criticism for its involvement in malign activity. This approach also allows Russia to be opportunistic, such as with COVID-19, where it has used the global pandemic as a hook to push longstanding disinformation and propaganda narratives. Screenshot of a Geopolitica.ru article promoting conspiracy theories around Bill Gates. > Bill Gates is linked to the COVID-19 outbreak and uses the pandemic to implant microchips “in whole of humanity [sic].” COVID-19 vaccines are a fraud spearheaded by Gates and Big Pharma. https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/io/news/virality-project-final-report https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/io/news/virality-project-fina... > While all nations have engaged in some form of diplomacy or messaging related to vaccines, the Virality Project focused on observing state media and social media networks linked to Russia, China, and Iran. These three nations not only promoted their own efforts, but also attempted to undermine their rivals. It's not a conspiracy.
  - Dah00n 4y ago
    I don't disagree with you but using US sources when talking about Russian disinformation is like using Russian sources when talking about US disinformation.
  - BrainVirus 4y ago
    This flavor of argument-by-insinuation is getting really, really old. Dismissing people or statement because they sound vaguely similar to some foreign source is in itself an obvious propaganda technique that uses exactly the same mentality as the dumbest conspiracy theories out there.
    - 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
      No. The poster said: > I would not be surprised if there is an effort by some states to discredit the vaccine on English speaking forums. Their claim was that adversaries are spreading vaccine disinformation. This is backed up by evidence. The only claim being made is that adversaries are doing this.
- johnchristopher 4y ago
  I sat with people who told me they were hesitant to vaccinate, that they heard different things left and right and didn't know what to do and would wait until it was mandatory to decide if they would get the vaccine or not. This went on for months. I didn't push them to vaccinate or anything like that, I decided it was better to keep quiet about it and maintain the relationship. Then one day I realized they were gaslighting me, organizing protests against covid measures and to regain their right to party, circulating fake news among themselves about how our government head was running pedophile ring and how the deaths were fake. etc., when suddenly they shouted at me how the government was making their life hell on purpose. I cut them off. I realized there were strong parallels with the behavior of cult members I knew long ago. They lie. They lie to appear open-minded, hesitant. Like random Chinese posters discussing alternate interpretation of Tien An Men ("it was a western fabricated lie!" "ah thanks, I never thought about that and it's intriguing, thanks for offering a more reasonable interpretation". Now when I smell someone is using the same tactics I flip off. But on HN I am not even bothering anymore. Conversations about long covid looks like conversation with covid deniers from two years ago and it almost always end up in dictionary/akshually cherry-picking battle. All that to say that, yeah, I believe there's a lot of conspiracy theorists among people who aren't OK with Covid vaccine policies. /rant
jonathanstrange 4y ago
What you say is true and has been corroborated by intelligence reports. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-disinformation-campaign-aims-to-undermine-confidence-in-pfizer-other-covid-19-vaccines-u-s-officials-say-11615129200 https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-disinformation-campaign...

somenameforme 4y ago

Information and knowledge on the effectiveness and side effects of the vaccines has changed in a rather extreme fashion since the earlier phase of the pandemic. And the virus itself has also changed in a rather extreme way since the earlier phase. Why would you expect peoples views, in aggregate, to not similarly change?

reducesuffering 4y ago

> It's been fascinating for the last couple of years to see how these daily armchair epidemiologist threads have transitioned from largely in support of vaccines to now largely against them. Yes, it has. Although the people haven't changed, the information has, and the most stubborn of people are still defending their initial thesis without any ability to re-examine their priors if they were wrong and actually doing very messed up things to their fellow citizens. They are dug in; because to do otherwise would be having to face guilt.

Kiro 4y ago
The fact that you're getting downvoted just reinforces your point. People here are thinking they are "following the science" while in reality their narrative is so outdated that it's scary. Even r/coronavirus has a more sober view now.

jonathanstrange 4y ago

I think you're right about the reasons for the decline. Most people have learned enough about Covid now to be able to see how good their health systems reacted (in my country, the response was outstanding). They're vaccinated and don't care about Covid any longer. These people participate less in threads about Covid now, so the percentage of fringe positions will increase. However, I want to point out that HN was really good in the beginning. I knew about the pandemic earlier than any of my colleagues and gave some advice about cancelling events that sounded ominous then but turned out to be excellent. I even was able to predict the case numbers reliably during the exponential growth phase in early 2020, using my own calculations. All of that thanks to HN. Early discussions from January to April 2020 on HN were quite insightful, as were later discussions of possible medications and therapies by some of the rich hypochondriacs on HN. I agree that HN is now useless for Covid-related discussions and has mostly turned into unscientific antivax garbage. But it was very useful during the beginning of the pandemic.

nope96 4y ago

> People looking for rational informed discussion about covid have realized it's no longer on HN, so they just don't participate anymore. Meanwhile,those who think this is all a giant conspiracy have found fellow travellers with bottomless cynicism, and those people now dominate these threads. My reply, which got flagged for some reason: Adversaries of the west want us to be unvaccinated and sick. Knowing what we know about "troll farms", I would not be surprised if there is an effort by some states to discredit the vaccine on English speaking forums. I'll add more to make it more clear I wasn't talking only about anti-vaccine: These troll farms play both sides. They want discussion forums to be toxic.