4 ms·

2018 was an exceptionally bad year for influenza. Typically influenza deaths in the U.S. are between 20-30k. COVID deaths in the U.S. over a two year period am

by Kranar 4y ago

2018 was an exceptionally bad year for influenza. Typically influenza deaths in the U.S. are between 20-30k. COVID deaths in the U.S. over a two year period amounted to over 1 million.

sieabahlpark 4y ago
lifeformed 4y ago
And that's with tons of precautions, whereas with the flu society doesn't take the kinds of mitigations we take with COVID.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- homonculus1 4y ago
- WastingMyTime89 4y ago
  People stopped taking special precautions for COVID six months ago in most of Europe. As soon as most of the population was vaccinated, it was pretty much over. Also, in my country, a lot of people got Omicron - and I mean a lot - realised it didn’t do much and pretty much stoped worrying.
  - OrvalWintermute 4y ago
    - michaelmrose 4y ago
      All masks that keep some of your spit in your mouth decreases viral transmission where the chance of transmission is linearly related to the number of potentially infectious particles in the environments
slibhb 4y ago
Sure but as immunity (natural and otherwise) becomes common, deaths from covid are way down. It seems likely that covid will end up looking something like the flu: a seasonal virus with significant costs but not warranting lockdowns or mandates.
antasvara 4y ago
I think the commenter you're responding to was indicating that we're moving towards COVID as the new influenza, not that we're there yet. Case numbers and deaths seem to be plateauing at a pretty low rate, especially considering the relaxed restrictions these numbers are occurring under. It seems reasonable to think that we won't suddenly see a more dangerous strain of this particular virus, or that vaccines will lose a significant amount of effectiveness.
rossdavidh 4y ago
This chart from CDC shows deaths from all causes: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm It still (just barely) shows part of the 2018 influenza spike, which is pretty similar to where we were at in July (note that the last few weeks on this chart are likely to come up a bit, but from what I've seen they don't rise much once they're 2-3 weeks old). Now it's always possible that the winter will be just like 2020/21 and 2021/22 winters, in terms of deaths, but I highly doubt it. Anyone who has not either been infected or vaccinated (or both) by now, is almost certainly naturally resistant. There isn't much of an "immunologically naive" population left. Where we are now is analogous to influenza in 1920, just after the big flupandemic of 1918/19.
- michaelmrose 4y ago
  People are getting regularly re-infected and sustaining progressive damage with substantially increasing risks of cardiovascular damage.
- EdwardDiego 4y ago
  You're making some very big claims here, especially has repeated infection by the same strain of Covid (nevermind differing strains) has been demonstrated to occur.
antisthenes 4y ago
You know what else was a bad year for influenza? 1918. Look up how many deaths occurred in the 2-year 1918-1919 period.
wsc981 4y ago
I kinda wonder what the number of influenza deaths was in the last 2 years.
- EdwardDiego 4y ago
  There'll be statistics on influenza deaths, depends on the jurisdiction you're interested in.
  - wsc981 4y ago
    I found these graphs: https://www.familiesfightingflu.org/flu-deaths-vs-covid-19-deaths/ https://www.familiesfightingflu.org/flu-deaths-vs-covid-19-d... It's remarkable how few people died from flu the last 2 years. I know people were (probably still are) being tested for COVID when visiting the hospital. Do we test for flu? I also feel COVID deaths are overblown, should probably be much lower in these graphs (many people that died /with/ COVID have been marked as dying /from/ COVID).
upsidesinclude 4y ago
The 1 million number is not accurate over those two years. We know it isn't accurate because we know that large numbers were merely covid positive when they died (often using an inaccurate testing method) Providing perverse funding incentives to hospitals distorts the data
- ratg13 4y ago
  All you have to do is look at a chart of excess deaths to disprove this.
  - upsidesinclude 4y ago
    And how is that number derived? Do you have any idea how the calculations are performed to arrive at that number? I suggest you take some time to investigate. When we are talking about the US, in particular, the whole pandemic has been politicized
    - EdwardDiego 4y ago
      The hint is in the word "excess". If there's a pandemic, and concurrently the amount of deaths in a population increases, there's a strong argument for correlation. Excess deaths doesn't care what your cause of death was, it just compares deaths in period X to deaths in previous periods. > When we are talking about the US, in particular, the whole pandemic has been politicized Yeah, it was very sad to see the Republicans and Trump in particular pursue that course of action.
      - upsidesinclude 4y ago
        You seem to want to keep your blinders on. The population is growing and hence the number dying is also growing. The way you handle the data to determine what is considered 'excess' changes the value. Actuarial science has been used to make that determination in more recent studies. Those studies suggest that the 'excess' number used by politicians and in news media is not accurate. Actuarial science used by insurance companies now shows historic changes in occurrence of deaths, over this period of time, that are not caused by SarsCoV2. Again, I suggest you investigate where the information comes from that you consider to support you base assumptions.
reissbaker 4y ago
That's a two-year period that doesn't include mass vaccination, and includes now-effectively-eliminated strains that were significantly more deadly than the current Omicron-based ones.

by Kranar 4y ago

2018 was an exceptionally bad year for influenza. Typically influenza deaths in the U.S. are between 20-30k. COVID deaths in the U.S. over a two year period amounted to over 1 million.

sieabahlpark 4y ago

lifeformed 4y ago

And that's with tons of precautions, whereas with the flu society doesn't take the kinds of mitigations we take with COVID.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
homonculus1 4y ago
WastingMyTime89 4y ago
People stopped taking special precautions for COVID six months ago in most of Europe. As soon as most of the population was vaccinated, it was pretty much over. Also, in my country, a lot of people got Omicron - and I mean a lot - realised it didn’t do much and pretty much stoped worrying.
- OrvalWintermute 4y ago
  - michaelmrose 4y ago
    All masks that keep some of your spit in your mouth decreases viral transmission where the chance of transmission is linearly related to the number of potentially infectious particles in the environments

slibhb 4y ago

Sure but as immunity (natural and otherwise) becomes common, deaths from covid are way down. It seems likely that covid will end up looking something like the flu: a seasonal virus with significant costs but not warranting lockdowns or mandates.

antasvara 4y ago

I think the commenter you're responding to was indicating that we're moving towards COVID as the new influenza, not that we're there yet. Case numbers and deaths seem to be plateauing at a pretty low rate, especially considering the relaxed restrictions these numbers are occurring under. It seems reasonable to think that we won't suddenly see a more dangerous strain of this particular virus, or that vaccines will lose a significant amount of effectiveness.

rossdavidh 4y ago

This chart from CDC shows deaths from all causes: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm It still (just barely) shows part of the 2018 influenza spike, which is pretty similar to where we were at in July (note that the last few weeks on this chart are likely to come up a bit, but from what I've seen they don't rise much once they're 2-3 weeks old). Now it's always possible that the winter will be just like 2020/21 and 2021/22 winters, in terms of deaths, but I highly doubt it. Anyone who has not either been infected or vaccinated (or both) by now, is almost certainly naturally resistant. There isn't much of an "immunologically naive" population left. Where we are now is analogous to influenza in 1920, just after the big flupandemic of 1918/19.

michaelmrose 4y ago
People are getting regularly re-infected and sustaining progressive damage with substantially increasing risks of cardiovascular damage.
EdwardDiego 4y ago
You're making some very big claims here, especially has repeated infection by the same strain of Covid (nevermind differing strains) has been demonstrated to occur.

antisthenes 4y ago

You know what else was a bad year for influenza? 1918. Look up how many deaths occurred in the 2-year 1918-1919 period.

wsc981 4y ago

I kinda wonder what the number of influenza deaths was in the last 2 years.

EdwardDiego 4y ago
There'll be statistics on influenza deaths, depends on the jurisdiction you're interested in.
- wsc981 4y ago
  I found these graphs: https://www.familiesfightingflu.org/flu-deaths-vs-covid-19-deaths/ https://www.familiesfightingflu.org/flu-deaths-vs-covid-19-d... It's remarkable how few people died from flu the last 2 years. I know people were (probably still are) being tested for COVID when visiting the hospital. Do we test for flu? I also feel COVID deaths are overblown, should probably be much lower in these graphs (many people that died /with/ COVID have been marked as dying /from/ COVID).

upsidesinclude 4y ago

The 1 million number is not accurate over those two years. We know it isn't accurate because we know that large numbers were merely covid positive when they died (often using an inaccurate testing method) Providing perverse funding incentives to hospitals distorts the data

ratg13 4y ago
All you have to do is look at a chart of excess deaths to disprove this.
- upsidesinclude 4y ago
  And how is that number derived? Do you have any idea how the calculations are performed to arrive at that number? I suggest you take some time to investigate. When we are talking about the US, in particular, the whole pandemic has been politicized
  - EdwardDiego 4y ago
    The hint is in the word "excess". If there's a pandemic, and concurrently the amount of deaths in a population increases, there's a strong argument for correlation. Excess deaths doesn't care what your cause of death was, it just compares deaths in period X to deaths in previous periods. > When we are talking about the US, in particular, the whole pandemic has been politicized Yeah, it was very sad to see the Republicans and Trump in particular pursue that course of action.
    - upsidesinclude 4y ago
      You seem to want to keep your blinders on. The population is growing and hence the number dying is also growing. The way you handle the data to determine what is considered 'excess' changes the value. Actuarial science has been used to make that determination in more recent studies. Those studies suggest that the 'excess' number used by politicians and in news media is not accurate. Actuarial science used by insurance companies now shows historic changes in occurrence of deaths, over this period of time, that are not caused by SarsCoV2. Again, I suggest you investigate where the information comes from that you consider to support you base assumptions.

reissbaker 4y ago

That's a two-year period that doesn't include mass vaccination, and includes now-effectively-eliminated strains that were significantly more deadly than the current Omicron-based ones.