I love these thought experiments. I would very likely go for one year, but I think it's highly unlikely I'd go for two. If I had to go for 5 years to get 45M,

I love these thought experiments. I would very likely go for one year, but I think it's highly unlikely I'd go for two. If I had to go for 5 years to get 45M, I think I'd pass. I definitely am not going to out-earn that or anything, I just value my time way, way too much, and value money way too little. 9M does a lot for my people and me, and after that I think I would just be helping out more people. They can suffer in their own prison! If I could risk 5 years in prison for $120M, with a minimum guaranteed return of 45M and a maximum of 2-3 years? Yeah, I'd go for that, even if the chance to succeed without prison was pretty small, say 20%. The chance to escape punishment is a big motivator, and don't all of us think we're clever enough to do it? Anyway, as you say, I'm the outlier. Almost everyone, even in the richest nation on earth, would accept that level of risk without a whole lot of thought.