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A 15-year secular bear market is not the same as a 15-year depression, or even a 15-year recession. It's fifteen years of overall crappy growth, not fifteen yea
by hugh 18y ago
A 15-year secular bear market is not the same as a 15-year depression, or even a 15-year recession. It's fifteen years of overall crappy growth, not fifteen years of straight negative growth.
The last fifteen years, you'll note, have been especially good: only one minor blip in 2001 since the last recession ended in 1992ish. We can't expect that kind of thing to last forever.
According to this analysis:
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Secular_Bear_Markets_vs_Secular%20Bull_Markets.htm http://www.amateur-investor.net/Secular_Bear_Markets_vs_Secu...
there were secular bears (as measured on the Dow) from 1906-1921, 1929-1949 and 1966-1982. No reason there shouldn't be another one now.
On the upside, this means relax. It doesn't mean we're all gonna die. It just means we might have to live though the 1970s again, except with better clothes and worse music.
- nostrademons 18y agoIMHO, the secular bear market started in 2000, and we're halfway through it. The peak in Oct 2007 just barely bested the market peak in 2000, and then like a month later started its slide. Right now, stocks are where they were in 97/98, so that's 10 years with zero overall growth.
- Retric 18y agoYou're forgetting about dividends and inflation. The stock price is based on what people think is going to happen if look at our GDP and savings rate to see if there is any economic growth.