4 ms·

I admire your optimism, but I can't get on board. It would be naive to deny the growth of cryptocurrencies over the last few years, but it seems like the people

by smcl 4y ago

I admire your optimism, but I can't get on board. It would be naive to deny the growth of cryptocurrencies over the last few years, but it seems like the people who were meant to make money have since cashed out, that everything's peaked and turned a corner and the general public have turned against it (due in no small part to a few many shitcoins, rugpulls, scams, BAYC, and a couple of defunct exchanges). I'm sure crypto will live on in some form, but it won't explode again like it did before. I don't know who is left to fuel the next bubble.

jimcsharp 4y ago
People talk about crypto cycles like they talk about metal cycles and I'm not sure how to distinguish the two (and that's why I'm not invested in either).
- strangescript 4y ago
  It's almost as if all publicly traded markets are ponzi-schemes on some level, but with better regulation.
  - benj111 4y ago
    On some level yes. If you're day trading. But you are actually buying a slice of a company and its future earnings. With bitcoin what are you actually buying?
    - WHATDOESIT 4y ago
      What are you actually buying while Forex trading? (I'd really like to know. To me, BTC trading and Forex trading sound exactly the same.)
      - benj111 4y ago
        Well I don't do Forex trading but you are buying a currency backed by a government. My understanding is it's closely linked to interest rates.
        WHATDOESIT 4y ago
        So you're buying into trust of that government. With BTC you're buying into trust of the technology and other network participants. Is it really so different? I don't trust governments so much - my local currency is currently facing 25% YoY inflation. I bought Bitcoin.
        cuteboy19 4y ago
        It's much simpler. People want $ for £ for education tourism etc. Successful forex traders are just middlemen for these txns. The make sure that you can always sell $ even if there is no one to buy them at that exact moment.
        WHATDOESIT 4y ago
        Well, and isn't it the same for BTC then? In the city where I live, there's tons of Bitcoin ATMs everywhere - and people using them, pretty clearly to go around their everyday business, as if it was a bank ATM.
        cuteboy19 4y ago
        Differences: 1. No one needs btc for education tourism etc. So there is no underlying demand that the general btc holder can middleman onto 2. You aren't supposed to hodl any kind of forex pair hoping it goes up forever. Also I forgot to stress that forex is trading and not investment
        WHATDOESIT 4y ago
        These people I see around here need to go to a BTC ATM to have cash for the coffee stand right next to it. What's so different? The scale, OK, but anything else? Actually, people are buying land/houses and cars with BTC here, also the largest local web shop (a large EU seller too) - the local Amazon let's say - accepts it, and they claim it's used for a small but not insignificant chunk of the sales.
      - smcl 4y ago
        I mean on some level if you're doing this kind of trading then yeah BTC/ETH/etc trading is similar to trading real currencies. I think the difference is that the real currencies have a well-known utility at the moment - they're a means of exchange for goods and services. If you're selling EUR to someone, the chances are they're using that EUR to pay for these in the eurozone. If you're buying USD, you're also likely to need that to buy USD-denominated things. If you're a forex trader, you're trying to make money from people's need to use these currencies. If you're doing that for crypto, you're doing that but for people who are just also buying and selling crypto - not actual goods or services.
        MrMan 4y ago
        well if you extend the analogy between crypto coins and FX, a long-only strategy makes as little sense in crypto as FX. Why would I hold dollars or yen long-term, instead of investing in assets which are productive like equites or bonds.
mattmanser 4y ago
Unfortunately I don't think the public will stay turned against it. Pyramid and MLM schemes exist and thrive today despite widespread knowledge of them and how they work. So I think shitcoins will have their day again, they'll just have new branding.
- drekipus 4y ago
  Finally, my time to jump on the bandwagon of wealth distribution
px43 4y ago
Recognize that every two years for the past 10 years someone has posted basically the exact same thing as what you just posted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg
- smcl 4y ago
  If a snarky YouTuber doing the “this one time at bandcamp” voice is the best argument, I dunno what to tell you. To borrow his condescending tone, he is making the argument “you think line go down, but line go up!” the latter half of which is the title of Dan Olsen’s high-profile video of the cryptocurrency boom. Unless it becomes practical to pay for something with cryptocurrencies (which for me should be the primary use case of any currency) they basically seem used by people who want to time buys and sells according to the current boom/bust or pump/dump cycle.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - px43 4y ago
    For millions of people, crypto-currencies are the most convenient way to buy lots of things. I've been buying things regularly with cryptocurrencies since 2011. Domain names, video games, hosting, consumer electronics, clothing, airfare, etc. 2017 marked a pivotal point where Bitcoin specifically abandoned catering to the brick and mortar and e-commerce use cases, and started focusing on large scale financial services. It was a frustrating development for sure, but people all over the world are using various smaller cryptocurrencies to buy groceries every day. Cryptocurrencies might not be useful for you specifically, and that's fine. Maybe you're not one of the various under-served target demographics. Complaining about that though is a bit like complaining that Yen is useless because you live in the US and none of the businesses you frequent accept Japanese currency. It's undeniably a trillion dollar global economy that provides a massive amount of value to millions.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
scotty79 4y ago
> it seems like the people who were meant to make money have since cashed out, that everything's peaked and turned a corner and the general public have turned against it Every 4 years it looks like that. And yet the next greed fueled ascension comes around like a clock. Each next one smaller than the last one. Next one will come around 2025 but this time it's going to be just few hundred percent.
- smcl 4y ago
  Eh there might be another bump. But as long as it's a space for scammers, pump-and-dump schemes, shitcoins and bullshitters it's just not for me. A pretty ridiculous amount of money has been sunk into making cryptocurrencies look like a big thing, instead of actually solving the problems that prevented people from actually using them. That makes me think that deep down the cryptocurrency people aren't that serious about their projects becoming actual currencies, and that they simply see them as a way to get rich quick by selling something they know to be ultimately worthless. Quite a few people have gotten rich (hello, Do Kwon!) so there's a chance it could work for those founders. But as a potential end-user, nahh no thanks I've seen enough
  - scotty79 4y ago
    So you are opting out of Bitcoin because other cryptocurrencies exist?
  - anonymouswacker 4y ago
    The "space" for a cryptocurrency is a Venn Diagram solely occupied by one circle: Bitcoin. We're seeing a culling of these shitcoin also-rans, which took the money from the late-coming naive while enriching the early wave of speculators, like any other common pyramid scheme.
    - smcl 4y ago
      Amazing. When the crypto world get bored of minting apes and such maybe they'll try to actually bother to try making bitcoin into something that can be used day-by-day. I don't think they will though. I think it'll remain only a speculative asset whose price jumps erratically to-and-fro until people get bored and move on to the next shiny thing.

by smcl 4y ago

jimcsharp 4y ago

People talk about crypto cycles like they talk about metal cycles and I'm not sure how to distinguish the two (and that's why I'm not invested in either).

strangescript 4y ago
It's almost as if all publicly traded markets are ponzi-schemes on some level, but with better regulation.
- benj111 4y ago
  On some level yes. If you're day trading. But you are actually buying a slice of a company and its future earnings. With bitcoin what are you actually buying?
  - WHATDOESIT 4y ago
    What are you actually buying while Forex trading? (I'd really like to know. To me, BTC trading and Forex trading sound exactly the same.)
    - benj111 4y ago
      Well I don't do Forex trading but you are buying a currency backed by a government. My understanding is it's closely linked to interest rates.
      - WHATDOESIT 4y ago
        So you're buying into trust of that government. With BTC you're buying into trust of the technology and other network participants. Is it really so different? I don't trust governments so much - my local currency is currently facing 25% YoY inflation. I bought Bitcoin.
        cuteboy19 4y ago
        It's much simpler. People want $ for £ for education tourism etc. Successful forex traders are just middlemen for these txns. The make sure that you can always sell $ even if there is no one to buy them at that exact moment.
        WHATDOESIT 4y ago
        Well, and isn't it the same for BTC then? In the city where I live, there's tons of Bitcoin ATMs everywhere - and people using them, pretty clearly to go around their everyday business, as if it was a bank ATM.
        cuteboy19 4y ago
        Differences: 1. No one needs btc for education tourism etc. So there is no underlying demand that the general btc holder can middleman onto 2. You aren't supposed to hodl any kind of forex pair hoping it goes up forever. Also I forgot to stress that forex is trading and not investment
        WHATDOESIT 4y ago
        These people I see around here need to go to a BTC ATM to have cash for the coffee stand right next to it. What's so different? The scale, OK, but anything else? Actually, people are buying land/houses and cars with BTC here, also the largest local web shop (a large EU seller too) - the local Amazon let's say - accepts it, and they claim it's used for a small but not insignificant chunk of the sales.
    - smcl 4y ago
      I mean on some level if you're doing this kind of trading then yeah BTC/ETH/etc trading is similar to trading real currencies. I think the difference is that the real currencies have a well-known utility at the moment - they're a means of exchange for goods and services. If you're selling EUR to someone, the chances are they're using that EUR to pay for these in the eurozone. If you're buying USD, you're also likely to need that to buy USD-denominated things. If you're a forex trader, you're trying to make money from people's need to use these currencies. If you're doing that for crypto, you're doing that but for people who are just also buying and selling crypto - not actual goods or services.
      - MrMan 4y ago
        well if you extend the analogy between crypto coins and FX, a long-only strategy makes as little sense in crypto as FX. Why would I hold dollars or yen long-term, instead of investing in assets which are productive like equites or bonds.

mattmanser 4y ago

Unfortunately I don't think the public will stay turned against it. Pyramid and MLM schemes exist and thrive today despite widespread knowledge of them and how they work. So I think shitcoins will have their day again, they'll just have new branding.

drekipus 4y ago
Finally, my time to jump on the bandwagon of wealth distribution

px43 4y ago

Recognize that every two years for the past 10 years someone has posted basically the exact same thing as what you just posted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg

smcl 4y ago
If a snarky YouTuber doing the “this one time at bandcamp” voice is the best argument, I dunno what to tell you. To borrow his condescending tone, he is making the argument “you think line go down, but line go up!” the latter half of which is the title of Dan Olsen’s high-profile video of the cryptocurrency boom. Unless it becomes practical to pay for something with cryptocurrencies (which for me should be the primary use case of any currency) they basically seem used by people who want to time buys and sells according to the current boom/bust or pump/dump cycle.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- px43 4y ago
  For millions of people, crypto-currencies are the most convenient way to buy lots of things. I've been buying things regularly with cryptocurrencies since 2011. Domain names, video games, hosting, consumer electronics, clothing, airfare, etc. 2017 marked a pivotal point where Bitcoin specifically abandoned catering to the brick and mortar and e-commerce use cases, and started focusing on large scale financial services. It was a frustrating development for sure, but people all over the world are using various smaller cryptocurrencies to buy groceries every day. Cryptocurrencies might not be useful for you specifically, and that's fine. Maybe you're not one of the various under-served target demographics. Complaining about that though is a bit like complaining that Yen is useless because you live in the US and none of the businesses you frequent accept Japanese currency. It's undeniably a trillion dollar global economy that provides a massive amount of value to millions.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]

scotty79 4y ago

> it seems like the people who were meant to make money have since cashed out, that everything's peaked and turned a corner and the general public have turned against it Every 4 years it looks like that. And yet the next greed fueled ascension comes around like a clock. Each next one smaller than the last one. Next one will come around 2025 but this time it's going to be just few hundred percent.

smcl 4y ago
Eh there might be another bump. But as long as it's a space for scammers, pump-and-dump schemes, shitcoins and bullshitters it's just not for me. A pretty ridiculous amount of money has been sunk into making cryptocurrencies look like a big thing, instead of actually solving the problems that prevented people from actually using them. That makes me think that deep down the cryptocurrency people aren't that serious about their projects becoming actual currencies, and that they simply see them as a way to get rich quick by selling something they know to be ultimately worthless. Quite a few people have gotten rich (hello, Do Kwon!) so there's a chance it could work for those founders. But as a potential end-user, nahh no thanks I've seen enough
- scotty79 4y ago
  So you are opting out of Bitcoin because other cryptocurrencies exist?
- anonymouswacker 4y ago
  The "space" for a cryptocurrency is a Venn Diagram solely occupied by one circle: Bitcoin. We're seeing a culling of these shitcoin also-rans, which took the money from the late-coming naive while enriching the early wave of speculators, like any other common pyramid scheme.
  - smcl 4y ago
    Amazing. When the crypto world get bored of minting apes and such maybe they'll try to actually bother to try making bitcoin into something that can be used day-by-day. I don't think they will though. I think it'll remain only a speculative asset whose price jumps erratically to-and-fro until people get bored and move on to the next shiny thing.