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Prediction: El Salvador will look genius in the next Bitcoin cycle. Other emerging market central banks will proceed to copy their model creating the next cycle

Prediction: El Salvador will look genius in the next Bitcoin cycle. Other emerging market central banks will proceed to copy their model creating the next cycle’s peak. Once they stop buying, the market will crash again creating either a global depression or a bailout of the btc economy by USG, causing a repeat of the bank bailout that spawned btc in the first place.

bastawhiz 4y ago
If El Salvador looks like a genius and their poorest citizens come around and get on board, the next crash will cause a humanitarian crisis: the poorest of the world will literally have given money to the rich who were able to get out of the market fast enough.
SilverBirch 4y ago
Let's be clear about this, unless El Salvador is in a debt crisis. They won't own any crypto by the next BTC cycle because they'll have gone bankrupt, sold off any crypto assets they've got, taken significant bailout money from places like the IMF. They don't have the luxury of sitting on BTC and riding the wave, they are bankrupt. They have $100m of BTC and they need to pay $800m by Jan 2023. And their debt is trading at something like 30 cents on the dollar because no one believes they can pay.
smcl 4y ago
I admire your optimism, but I can't get on board. It would be naive to deny the growth of cryptocurrencies over the last few years, but it seems like the people who were meant to make money have since cashed out, that everything's peaked and turned a corner and the general public have turned against it (due in no small part to a few many shitcoins, rugpulls, scams, BAYC, and a couple of defunct exchanges). I'm sure crypto will live on in some form, but it won't explode again like it did before. I don't know who is left to fuel the next bubble.
- jimcsharp 4y ago
  People talk about crypto cycles like they talk about metal cycles and I'm not sure how to distinguish the two (and that's why I'm not invested in either).
  - strangescript 4y ago
    It's almost as if all publicly traded markets are ponzi-schemes on some level, but with better regulation.
    - benj111 4y ago
      On some level yes. If you're day trading. But you are actually buying a slice of a company and its future earnings. With bitcoin what are you actually buying?
      - WHATDOESIT 4y ago
        What are you actually buying while Forex trading? (I'd really like to know. To me, BTC trading and Forex trading sound exactly the same.)
        benj111 4y ago
        Well I don't do Forex trading but you are buying a currency backed by a government. My understanding is it's closely linked to interest rates.
        WHATDOESIT 4y ago
        So you're buying into trust of that government. With BTC you're buying into trust of the technology and other network participants. Is it really so different? I don't trust governments so much - my local currency is currently facing 25% YoY inflation. I bought Bitcoin.
        cuteboy19 4y ago
- mattmanser 4y ago
  Unfortunately I don't think the public will stay turned against it. Pyramid and MLM schemes exist and thrive today despite widespread knowledge of them and how they work. So I think shitcoins will have their day again, they'll just have new branding.
  - drekipus 4y ago
    Finally, my time to jump on the bandwagon of wealth distribution
- px43 4y ago
  Recognize that every two years for the past 10 years someone has posted basically the exact same thing as what you just posted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg
  - smcl 4y ago
    If a snarky YouTuber doing the “this one time at bandcamp” voice is the best argument, I dunno what to tell you. To borrow his condescending tone, he is making the argument “you think line go down, but line go up!” the latter half of which is the title of Dan Olsen’s high-profile video of the cryptocurrency boom. Unless it becomes practical to pay for something with cryptocurrencies (which for me should be the primary use case of any currency) they basically seem used by people who want to time buys and sells according to the current boom/bust or pump/dump cycle.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - px43 4y ago
      For millions of people, crypto-currencies are the most convenient way to buy lots of things. I've been buying things regularly with cryptocurrencies since 2011. Domain names, video games, hosting, consumer electronics, clothing, airfare, etc. 2017 marked a pivotal point where Bitcoin specifically abandoned catering to the brick and mortar and e-commerce use cases, and started focusing on large scale financial services. It was a frustrating development for sure, but people all over the world are using various smaller cryptocurrencies to buy groceries every day. Cryptocurrencies might not be useful for you specifically, and that's fine. Maybe you're not one of the various under-served target demographics. Complaining about that though is a bit like complaining that Yen is useless because you live in the US and none of the businesses you frequent accept Japanese currency. It's undeniably a trillion dollar global economy that provides a massive amount of value to millions.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
- scotty79 4y ago
  > it seems like the people who were meant to make money have since cashed out, that everything's peaked and turned a corner and the general public have turned against it Every 4 years it looks like that. And yet the next greed fueled ascension comes around like a clock. Each next one smaller than the last one. Next one will come around 2025 but this time it's going to be just few hundred percent.
  - smcl 4y ago
    Eh there might be another bump. But as long as it's a space for scammers, pump-and-dump schemes, shitcoins and bullshitters it's just not for me. A pretty ridiculous amount of money has been sunk into making cryptocurrencies look like a big thing, instead of actually solving the problems that prevented people from actually using them. That makes me think that deep down the cryptocurrency people aren't that serious about their projects becoming actual currencies, and that they simply see them as a way to get rich quick by selling something they know to be ultimately worthless. Quite a few people have gotten rich (hello, Do Kwon!) so there's a chance it could work for those founders. But as a potential end-user, nahh no thanks I've seen enough
    - scotty79 4y ago
      So you are opting out of Bitcoin because other cryptocurrencies exist?
    - anonymouswacker 4y ago
      The "space" for a cryptocurrency is a Venn Diagram solely occupied by one circle: Bitcoin. We're seeing a culling of these shitcoin also-rans, which took the money from the late-coming naive while enriching the early wave of speculators, like any other common pyramid scheme.
      - smcl 4y ago
        Amazing. When the crypto world get bored of minting apes and such maybe they'll try to actually bother to try making bitcoin into something that can be used day-by-day. I don't think they will though. I think it'll remain only a speculative asset whose price jumps erratically to-and-fro until people get bored and move on to the next shiny thing.
jinzo 4y ago
They invested US$100 million (and currently that's around US$50 million). The next bond payment (2023 note that they are trying to buy back now) is due in January and that alone is US$800 million. So, their investment should yield really high returns for it to even make a decent dent into the first bond. From all the fanfare around them, I was sure they had to invest more. But after looking up the numbers, this looks like a publicity stunt more than any serious investment. Also 20% adoption when it's mandatory to support it, is quite interesting too.
- el-salvador 4y ago
  > They invested US$100 million (and currently that's around US$50 million). We are a small country, for comparison the largest public hospital budget is about US$60 million per year. > The next bond payment (2023 note that they are trying to buy back now) There are two bonds which they are buying. The 2023 one at 91 cents per dollar, and the 2025 one at 51 cents per dollar. > this looks like a publicity stunt more than any serious investment. El Salvador has a very good PR team. So many announcements have their own publicitiy students. Teven produce different material targeting different foreign countries. It's always interesting to see what each to see what PR message each country gets. For example: Targeting those who didn't agree on vaccine mandates in English Speaking Countries (Australia/Canada/UK): https://twitter.com/CanAlbertaHuman/status/1478472760066072576 https://twitter.com/CanAlbertaHuman/status/14784727600660725... https://twitter.com/LowCard_Hunger/status/1483581665230340103 https://twitter.com/LowCard_Hunger/status/148358166523034010... Targeting those who wanted vaccines in neighboring countries (Honduras): https://twitter.com/radioamericahn/status/1403783363597684740 https://twitter.com/radioamericahn/status/140378336359768474... https://twitter.com/gotvhonduras/status/1402268608068268041 https://twitter.com/gotvhonduras/status/1402268608068268041

bastawhiz 4y ago

If El Salvador looks like a genius and their poorest citizens come around and get on board, the next crash will cause a humanitarian crisis: the poorest of the world will literally have given money to the rich who were able to get out of the market fast enough.

SilverBirch 4y ago

Let's be clear about this, unless El Salvador is in a debt crisis. They won't own any crypto by the next BTC cycle because they'll have gone bankrupt, sold off any crypto assets they've got, taken significant bailout money from places like the IMF. They don't have the luxury of sitting on BTC and riding the wave, they are bankrupt. They have $100m of BTC and they need to pay $800m by Jan 2023. And their debt is trading at something like 30 cents on the dollar because no one believes they can pay.

smcl 4y ago

I admire your optimism, but I can't get on board. It would be naive to deny the growth of cryptocurrencies over the last few years, but it seems like the people who were meant to make money have since cashed out, that everything's peaked and turned a corner and the general public have turned against it (due in no small part to a few many shitcoins, rugpulls, scams, BAYC, and a couple of defunct exchanges). I'm sure crypto will live on in some form, but it won't explode again like it did before. I don't know who is left to fuel the next bubble.

jimcsharp 4y ago
People talk about crypto cycles like they talk about metal cycles and I'm not sure how to distinguish the two (and that's why I'm not invested in either).
- strangescript 4y ago
  It's almost as if all publicly traded markets are ponzi-schemes on some level, but with better regulation.
  - benj111 4y ago
    On some level yes. If you're day trading. But you are actually buying a slice of a company and its future earnings. With bitcoin what are you actually buying?
    - WHATDOESIT 4y ago
      What are you actually buying while Forex trading? (I'd really like to know. To me, BTC trading and Forex trading sound exactly the same.)
      - benj111 4y ago
        Well I don't do Forex trading but you are buying a currency backed by a government. My understanding is it's closely linked to interest rates.
        WHATDOESIT 4y ago
        So you're buying into trust of that government. With BTC you're buying into trust of the technology and other network participants. Is it really so different? I don't trust governments so much - my local currency is currently facing 25% YoY inflation. I bought Bitcoin.
        cuteboy19 4y ago
mattmanser 4y ago
Unfortunately I don't think the public will stay turned against it. Pyramid and MLM schemes exist and thrive today despite widespread knowledge of them and how they work. So I think shitcoins will have their day again, they'll just have new branding.
- drekipus 4y ago
  Finally, my time to jump on the bandwagon of wealth distribution
px43 4y ago
Recognize that every two years for the past 10 years someone has posted basically the exact same thing as what you just posted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg
- smcl 4y ago
  If a snarky YouTuber doing the “this one time at bandcamp” voice is the best argument, I dunno what to tell you. To borrow his condescending tone, he is making the argument “you think line go down, but line go up!” the latter half of which is the title of Dan Olsen’s high-profile video of the cryptocurrency boom. Unless it becomes practical to pay for something with cryptocurrencies (which for me should be the primary use case of any currency) they basically seem used by people who want to time buys and sells according to the current boom/bust or pump/dump cycle.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - px43 4y ago
    For millions of people, crypto-currencies are the most convenient way to buy lots of things. I've been buying things regularly with cryptocurrencies since 2011. Domain names, video games, hosting, consumer electronics, clothing, airfare, etc. 2017 marked a pivotal point where Bitcoin specifically abandoned catering to the brick and mortar and e-commerce use cases, and started focusing on large scale financial services. It was a frustrating development for sure, but people all over the world are using various smaller cryptocurrencies to buy groceries every day. Cryptocurrencies might not be useful for you specifically, and that's fine. Maybe you're not one of the various under-served target demographics. Complaining about that though is a bit like complaining that Yen is useless because you live in the US and none of the businesses you frequent accept Japanese currency. It's undeniably a trillion dollar global economy that provides a massive amount of value to millions.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
scotty79 4y ago
> it seems like the people who were meant to make money have since cashed out, that everything's peaked and turned a corner and the general public have turned against it Every 4 years it looks like that. And yet the next greed fueled ascension comes around like a clock. Each next one smaller than the last one. Next one will come around 2025 but this time it's going to be just few hundred percent.
- smcl 4y ago
  Eh there might be another bump. But as long as it's a space for scammers, pump-and-dump schemes, shitcoins and bullshitters it's just not for me. A pretty ridiculous amount of money has been sunk into making cryptocurrencies look like a big thing, instead of actually solving the problems that prevented people from actually using them. That makes me think that deep down the cryptocurrency people aren't that serious about their projects becoming actual currencies, and that they simply see them as a way to get rich quick by selling something they know to be ultimately worthless. Quite a few people have gotten rich (hello, Do Kwon!) so there's a chance it could work for those founders. But as a potential end-user, nahh no thanks I've seen enough
  - scotty79 4y ago
    So you are opting out of Bitcoin because other cryptocurrencies exist?
  - anonymouswacker 4y ago
    The "space" for a cryptocurrency is a Venn Diagram solely occupied by one circle: Bitcoin. We're seeing a culling of these shitcoin also-rans, which took the money from the late-coming naive while enriching the early wave of speculators, like any other common pyramid scheme.
    - smcl 4y ago
      Amazing. When the crypto world get bored of minting apes and such maybe they'll try to actually bother to try making bitcoin into something that can be used day-by-day. I don't think they will though. I think it'll remain only a speculative asset whose price jumps erratically to-and-fro until people get bored and move on to the next shiny thing.

jinzo 4y ago

They invested US$100 million (and currently that's around US$50 million). The next bond payment (2023 note that they are trying to buy back now) is due in January and that alone is US$800 million. So, their investment should yield really high returns for it to even make a decent dent into the first bond. From all the fanfare around them, I was sure they had to invest more. But after looking up the numbers, this looks like a publicity stunt more than any serious investment. Also 20% adoption when it's mandatory to support it, is quite interesting too.

el-salvador 4y ago
> They invested US$100 million (and currently that's around US$50 million). We are a small country, for comparison the largest public hospital budget is about US$60 million per year. > The next bond payment (2023 note that they are trying to buy back now) There are two bonds which they are buying. The 2023 one at 91 cents per dollar, and the 2025 one at 51 cents per dollar. > this looks like a publicity stunt more than any serious investment. El Salvador has a very good PR team. So many announcements have their own publicitiy students. Teven produce different material targeting different foreign countries. It's always interesting to see what each to see what PR message each country gets. For example: Targeting those who didn't agree on vaccine mandates in English Speaking Countries (Australia/Canada/UK): https://twitter.com/CanAlbertaHuman/status/1478472760066072576 https://twitter.com/CanAlbertaHuman/status/14784727600660725... https://twitter.com/LowCard_Hunger/status/1483581665230340103 https://twitter.com/LowCard_Hunger/status/148358166523034010... Targeting those who wanted vaccines in neighboring countries (Honduras): https://twitter.com/radioamericahn/status/1403783363597684740 https://twitter.com/radioamericahn/status/140378336359768474... https://twitter.com/gotvhonduras/status/1402268608068268041 https://twitter.com/gotvhonduras/status/1402268608068268041