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It looks like he’s been at it for a while, but quick googling didn’t turn up any substantive rebuttal (of him/his blog). In this post he seems to be making a si
by jonstewart 4y ago
It looks like he’s been at it for a while, but quick googling didn’t turn up any substantive rebuttal (of him/his blog). In this post he seems to be making a simplistic Malthusian argument—but we know population growth is not Malthusian.
The trickier problem seems more to be: what happens when the hockey sticks flatline? When China’s population stops growing, will its economy also stagnate? What happens then?
I look forward to reading more of this blog, though, because it does at least appear sincere, and so can sharpen reasoning. And a more general point of his could be abstracted as being that we’re being whipsawed by so many curves, and no doubt several others not discussed, that even if reality isn’t so pessimistic as he lays out, it might still be less than “fun”.
- dane-pgp 4y ago> When China’s population stops growing To put this in context, here's what a recent article[0] from Fortune has to say: > On Thursday, Yang Wenzhuang, the head of population for China’s National Health Commission, told a conference that the country’s population would start to shrink before 2025, according to state-run news outlet Global Times. Earlier forecasts expected the decline to begin in 2027. [0] https://fortune.com/2022/07/25/china-population-decline-collapse-crisis-2025-sooner/ https://fortune.com/2022/07/25/china-population-decline-coll...