The article does say that Caplan "Relies on: taking the "other side" of bad bets/predictions people make and mostly relying on making very conservative predicti

The article does say that Caplan "Relies on: taking the "other side" of bad bets/predictions people make and mostly relying on making very conservative predictions." And later on in the article he covers the advantage (basically, a "tax on bullshit") and the limitation (probably won't learn about important future trends).