4 ms·
That didn't quite match my memory of Vinge, so fwiw I just checked the two earliest publications I know of: > Such trend-curves... extrapolated 30 or 40 years
by abecedarius 4y ago
That didn't quite match my memory of Vinge, so fwiw I just checked the two earliest publications I know of:
> Such trend-curves... extrapolated 30 or 40 years they are so high and steep that even the most naive futurist discounts their accuracy.
(That's the closest therein to a specific prediction date, from 1983: https://imgur.com/a/HrUxGts https://imgur.com/a/HrUxGts)
> let me more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.
From 1993: https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html
- goatlover 4y agoOkay, maybe I remembered it wrong, or someone else gave that range. Vinge has about 8 more years to be surprised.
- TigeriusKirk 4y agoSpecifically he would be surprised if there isn't a computer with greater than human intelligence by 2030. It's interesting that 29 years after he said that, and 8 years remaining on the timeline, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility.
- abecedarius 4y agoOne of the example possibilities mentioned in one of his essays or interviews was, what if with some poorly-understood tweaks to neural network training, it started working much better at scale? At the time I thought he was really reaching with that one.