3 ms·

At least Vernor Vinge gave a date range for the singularity. Initially, he said he would be surprised if it happened before 2000 and after 2020. I think he's mo

At least Vernor Vinge gave a date range for the singularity. Initially, he said he would be surprised if it happened before 2000 and after 2020. I think he's moved that goalpost forward a decade or two since. Kurzweil just says 2045, because that's where his chart or accelerating returns tells him it will happen.

bombcar 4y ago
It is always wise to make your date after your estimated death but before your customers.
bee_rider 4y ago
Is there supposed to be an implication of "if it doesn't happen by 2020 I don't think it will ever happen" in the Vinge prediction?
- goatlover 4y ago
  No, it's he would be surprised if it happened later.
  - bee_rider 4y ago
    The phrase "I'll be surprised if this happens later" is ambiguous, I'm wondering if that was intentional.
abecedarius 4y ago
That didn't quite match my memory of Vinge, so fwiw I just checked the two earliest publications I know of: > Such trend-curves... extrapolated 30 or 40 years they are so high and steep that even the most naive futurist discounts their accuracy. (That's the closest therein to a specific prediction date, from 1983: https://imgur.com/a/HrUxGts https://imgur.com/a/HrUxGts) > let me more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030. From 1993: https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html
- goatlover 4y ago
  Okay, maybe I remembered it wrong, or someone else gave that range. Vinge has about 8 more years to be surprised.
- TigeriusKirk 4y ago
  Specifically he would be surprised if there isn't a computer with greater than human intelligence by 2030. It's interesting that 29 years after he said that, and 8 years remaining on the timeline, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility.
  - abecedarius 4y ago
    One of the example possibilities mentioned in one of his essays or interviews was, what if with some poorly-understood tweaks to neural network training, it started working much better at scale? At the time I thought he was really reaching with that one.

bombcar 4y ago

It is always wise to make your date after your estimated death but before your customers.

bee_rider 4y ago

Is there supposed to be an implication of "if it doesn't happen by 2020 I don't think it will ever happen" in the Vinge prediction?

goatlover 4y ago
No, it's he would be surprised if it happened later.
- bee_rider 4y ago
  The phrase "I'll be surprised if this happens later" is ambiguous, I'm wondering if that was intentional.

abecedarius 4y ago

That didn't quite match my memory of Vinge, so fwiw I just checked the two earliest publications I know of: > Such trend-curves... extrapolated 30 or 40 years they are so high and steep that even the most naive futurist discounts their accuracy. (That's the closest therein to a specific prediction date, from 1983: https://imgur.com/a/HrUxGts https://imgur.com/a/HrUxGts) > let me more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030. From 1993: https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html

goatlover 4y ago
Okay, maybe I remembered it wrong, or someone else gave that range. Vinge has about 8 more years to be surprised.
TigeriusKirk 4y ago
Specifically he would be surprised if there isn't a computer with greater than human intelligence by 2030. It's interesting that 29 years after he said that, and 8 years remaining on the timeline, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility.
- abecedarius 4y ago
  One of the example possibilities mentioned in one of his essays or interviews was, what if with some poorly-understood tweaks to neural network training, it started working much better at scale? At the time I thought he was really reaching with that one.