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Note that Caplan does have a handful of losing bets for which the deadline simply hasn't arrived yet. For example, he made an anti-global-warming bet that avera
by Analemma_ 4y ago
Note that Caplan does have a handful of losing bets for which the deadline simply hasn't arrived yet. For example, he made an anti-global-warming bet that average temperatures wouldn't rise faster in the 2015-2030 span than they did over 2000-2015, which he has all but lost unless we plunge into an ice age tomorrow; it's just that the end of the bet isn't for another seven years.
- tomjakubowski 4y agoCaplan can still get a push on that bet if NOAA stops publishing the data before the end of 2029. Two presidential elections to go.
- yuan43 4y agoI would not rule that out, and maybe that was part of his thinking.
- tomjakubowski 4y agoMaybe, but the push outcome has no upside. I have no idea where he saw any upside in this bet.
- yen223 4y agoHe also appears to have lucked out a little with the "No major country will withdraw from the EU" bet. His deadline was Jan 1, 2020, but the UK withdrew on Jan 31, 2020.