Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner's work on forecasting yields interesting perspectives on predictions like these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasti

Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner's work on forecasting yields interesting perspectives on predictions like these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting%3A_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting%3A_The_Art_an...