4 ms·
According to the article, Bryan Caplan has the best record of 100%. But I was surprised to find that the article did not say much about the bets themselves, no
by yuan43 4y ago
According to the article, Bryan Caplan has the best record of 100%.
But I was surprised to find that the article did not say much about the bets themselves, nor analyze in any great detail what exactly Caplan is doing. Indeed, it's not even possible based on the article AFAICT to check the 100% figure (23/23) independently.
Hopping through some links, I found this list:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARA...
What's interesting is how many of Caplan's bets favor a continuation of the status quo against an opponent believing in a more extreme outcome.
The open bets are also interesting. Consider this one:
> You pay me $x today. If any European country that was not Communist in 1988 has a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities between today and December 31, 2045, I will immediately pay you $11x.” (initial terms, final terms here) 09/24/2015. Status: open.
That said, the language prevents me from figuring out which side Caplan bet on. This is a problem with many of the terms, but fortunately the winner is given as Caplan. Not so in this case.
Given Caplan's apparently conservative bent, I suspect he's "me".
- Analemma_ 4y agoNote that Caplan does have a handful of losing bets for which the deadline simply hasn't arrived yet. For example, he made an anti-global-warming bet that average temperatures wouldn't rise faster in the 2015-2030 span than they did over 2000-2015, which he has all but lost unless we plunge into an ice age tomorrow; it's just that the end of the bet isn't for another seven years.
- tomjakubowski 4y agoCaplan can still get a push on that bet if NOAA stops publishing the data before the end of 2029. Two presidential elections to go.
- yuan43 4y agoI would not rule that out, and maybe that was part of his thinking.
- tomjakubowski 4y agoMaybe, but the push outcome has no upside. I have no idea where he saw any upside in this bet.
- yen223 4y agoHe also appears to have lucked out a little with the "No major country will withdraw from the EU" bet. His deadline was Jan 1, 2020, but the UK withdrew on Jan 31, 2020.
- actuallyalys 4y agoThe article does say that Caplan "Relies on: taking the "other side" of bad bets/predictions people make and mostly relying on making very conservative predictions." And later on in the article he covers the advantage (basically, a "tax on bullshit") and the limitation (probably won't learn about important future trends).