6 ms·

Just looking at Kurzweil's predictions for 2020's, they are all off: https://web.archive.org/web/20170225013846/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_

by ACV001 4y ago

Just looking at Kurzweil's predictions for 2020's, they are all off: https://web.archive.org/web/20170225013846/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil#2020s https://web.archive.org/web/20170225013846/https://en.wikipe... Interestingly enough, in the latest version of this wikipedia page, all these "predictions" are removed.

jjulius 4y ago
>By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality. LOL, Zuck's metaverse would like a word...
- hnuser123456 4y ago
  It's not indistinguishable, but VRchat has a pretty massive daily playerbase (20k on this weekday per steam), including some people that make a living making 3D art content (environments, character models), and to the dedicated, that is their reality. To be indistinguishable, though, not quite there yet. Then again, the valve index is still visually nearly, if not the, top of the line, and 3 years old, and it sounds like valve, meta, apple, and some more smaller players are still working on a true next gen, where "gen" is something that feels wholly, indisputably superior to previous offerings. Vive is also still trying but also not doing anything revolutionary. We are however simultaneously on the brink of consumer-level extremely high fidelity, high speed, cable-matching wireless video, and being able to strap sufficient computer power into the headset itself, and no-extra-equipment, compromise-free tracking. VR is absolutely a guaranteed long term growth market
  - giraffe_lady 4y ago
    20k is massive for a restaurant, but not the internet.
    - spartanatreyu 4y ago
      20k is massive for sustained players of an indie online-only game released around 6 years ago. At the time of writing (the quietest period in the week for online gaming worldwide), it is currently 54th place in terms of people playing on steam right now. None of the 53 games above it require/recommend a dedicated peripheral to play. VR won't hit 1 million simultaneous users in anything until VR displays can render high quality text on a quad (think a screen or piece of paper) and/or provide haptic feedback. VR is still held back by today's technology for the most interesting uses, but is still acceptable enough for a social space to thrive.
      - vlovich123 4y ago
        It’s more about install base and size of marketplace than technical abilities I think. The primary drivers of that is things like the quantity of quality software at an inexpensive price, fit and comfort, and price. For all the excellent advancements made on the technical side, basically the only funding for VR content comes from FB and hobbyists which limits adoption. There’s also secondary things around it not being usable for meaningful productivity (and even when it is, it doesn’t realize the dream of making you more productive). It’s all early days but I think OP is very correct. 20k is comparatively impressive but absolutely shows how limited in scope a “runaway” success looks like. Think of it this way. Traditional console/PC games every year have several AAA titles that sell millions of copies each and have millions of people playing online. Compared with VR where Beat Saber is basically the #1 game for several years. That’s a massive marketplace to sell into with a long track record of winning formula (that’s why gameplay and business modes aren’t innovated on too much). That kind of stuff hasn’t happened for VR yet. Note that I’m not saying it won’t. Also I wouldn’t look at Steam numbers here - Quest, which is the number 1 VR headset in the world, doesn’t make its analytics visible there [1]. VRChat is top 10 but Beat Saber is more popular I think. So the conclusion is that VRChat is the #1 VR game for PCVR which is a comparatively stagnant market and doesn’t speak to the broader ecosystem. [1] https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/section/315855462372893/#/?_k=3i0h94 https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/section/31585546237...
        4y ago
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  https://image-cdn.hypb.st/https%3A%2F%2Fhypebeast.com%2Fimage%2F2022%2F08%2Fmark-zuckerberg-meta-metaverse-horizon-worlds-avatar-01.jpg?q=90&w=1400&cbr=1&fit=max https://image-cdn.hypb.st/https%3A%2F%2Fhypebeast.com%2Fimag... I cannot tell which one is real, can you?
  - mrtksn 4y ago
    That image of metaverse has become iconic and is used as a very powerful tool of telling the story of how metaverse is failing and I wonder if Zuckerberg will ever be able to fix the damage. What He was thinking? TBH, I never tried VR and when I intended to try VR as I hear good things about Half Life: Alyx I was not able to find a VR centre close to me that has not failed yet. The few I found, all gone. I also have been reading from VR advocates about how it can actually be nice for working because you can have very large view field, as if using multiple large monitors in a distraction-free environment. However for me VR has become this picture of Zuk and I bet I'm not alone because it is so iconic and icons assume the functions of the actual thing in the absence of it. Maybe they shouldn't have been promoting Metaverse to people who don't have the equipment and can't give it a fair go.
    - spywaregorilla 4y ago
      > I never tried VR and when I intended to try VR as I hear good things about Half Life: Alyx Think of VR as a really good arcade on-rails shooter game and that's the gist of Half Life Alyx. It's a good game. But it also left me feeling very disappointed. * You won't move much. You'll peek in and out of cover, which is fun, but you won't actually "move" around all that much for most encounters. People really like ducking in and out of cover to shoot at things, and again, that is genuinely fun. * Some enemies break this mold and require you to move; doing extremely telegraphed attacks that pretty much just require you to move to anywhere that isn't exactly where you're standing at that moment. Specifically just enough that you need to use the controller inputs to move rather than stepping physically. If you stop to think about why the game is designed this way, it's because people are bad at moving irl, and this is about all they can handle. * In general all enemies have this feel of an on rails shooter though, and you have no way to interact with them besides throwing grenades and shooting. You can't melee and a lot of enemies stand just a little too far to seem realistic so that they don't do weird overlaps with your camera. * There's some physical interaction stuff that is good. Stuff that in other games would have been "Press X to do Y" is now a physical machine you need to move around with your hands, especially reloading. But it's also very limited because most of the game is a static mesh that you can't really do anything with. So... yeah, I enjoyed it but it made me pessimistic for the future. I think they worked hard to deal with VR's limitations but they are same damn high walls.
notahacker 4y ago
In fairness, we've still got six or seven years to figure out feeding ourselves with nano bots, perfect our understanding of the human brain via scanning technology and release general AI that runs on commodity hardware. Some impressively wide misses in the 2010s though...
spywaregorilla 4y ago
> Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. I wonder what was up with this one.
- saalweachter 4y ago
  Haven't you ever seen a movie set in the future? Holograms are all the rage. Holographic displays, holographic phone calls, holographic controls. It's holograms all the way down at some point in the future.
  - booleandilemma 4y ago
    It'll be like turning on my webcam for zoom only I have to wear pants.
    - kubanczyk 4y ago
      In the UK you would even need to wear trousers. Conservatives, eh? /s
- hndamien 4y ago
  Maybe refering to this type of thing - https://www.protohologram.com/ https://www.protohologram.com/
anigbrowl 4y ago
They're not that bad. a lot of them fell short but are foreseeable in the not-too-distant future. Some things he predicted for later ar arguably here or almost here, eg this one for 2029: Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers "know" literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings. I don't know what the deletion of predictions means, but Wikipedia editors in general seem to dislike checklists.
hamiltonians 4y ago
how is he so popular if no one has anything positive to say about him and is always wrong. is he just a creation of the media
- taylorius 4y ago
  I'm sure the future vr system will holo up some pants for you.

by ACV001 4y ago

jjulius 4y ago

>By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality. LOL, Zuck's metaverse would like a word...

hnuser123456 4y ago
It's not indistinguishable, but VRchat has a pretty massive daily playerbase (20k on this weekday per steam), including some people that make a living making 3D art content (environments, character models), and to the dedicated, that is their reality. To be indistinguishable, though, not quite there yet. Then again, the valve index is still visually nearly, if not the, top of the line, and 3 years old, and it sounds like valve, meta, apple, and some more smaller players are still working on a true next gen, where "gen" is something that feels wholly, indisputably superior to previous offerings. Vive is also still trying but also not doing anything revolutionary. We are however simultaneously on the brink of consumer-level extremely high fidelity, high speed, cable-matching wireless video, and being able to strap sufficient computer power into the headset itself, and no-extra-equipment, compromise-free tracking. VR is absolutely a guaranteed long term growth market
- giraffe_lady 4y ago
  20k is massive for a restaurant, but not the internet.
  - spartanatreyu 4y ago
    20k is massive for sustained players of an indie online-only game released around 6 years ago. At the time of writing (the quietest period in the week for online gaming worldwide), it is currently 54th place in terms of people playing on steam right now. None of the 53 games above it require/recommend a dedicated peripheral to play. VR won't hit 1 million simultaneous users in anything until VR displays can render high quality text on a quad (think a screen or piece of paper) and/or provide haptic feedback. VR is still held back by today's technology for the most interesting uses, but is still acceptable enough for a social space to thrive.
    - vlovich123 4y ago
      It’s more about install base and size of marketplace than technical abilities I think. The primary drivers of that is things like the quantity of quality software at an inexpensive price, fit and comfort, and price. For all the excellent advancements made on the technical side, basically the only funding for VR content comes from FB and hobbyists which limits adoption. There’s also secondary things around it not being usable for meaningful productivity (and even when it is, it doesn’t realize the dream of making you more productive). It’s all early days but I think OP is very correct. 20k is comparatively impressive but absolutely shows how limited in scope a “runaway” success looks like. Think of it this way. Traditional console/PC games every year have several AAA titles that sell millions of copies each and have millions of people playing online. Compared with VR where Beat Saber is basically the #1 game for several years. That’s a massive marketplace to sell into with a long track record of winning formula (that’s why gameplay and business modes aren’t innovated on too much). That kind of stuff hasn’t happened for VR yet. Note that I’m not saying it won’t. Also I wouldn’t look at Steam numbers here - Quest, which is the number 1 VR headset in the world, doesn’t make its analytics visible there [1]. VRChat is top 10 but Beat Saber is more popular I think. So the conclusion is that VRChat is the #1 VR game for PCVR which is a comparatively stagnant market and doesn’t speak to the broader ecosystem. [1] https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/section/315855462372893/#/?_k=3i0h94 https://www.oculus.com/experiences/quest/section/31585546237...
      - 4y ago
spywaregorilla 4y ago
https://image-cdn.hypb.st/https%3A%2F%2Fhypebeast.com%2Fimage%2F2022%2F08%2Fmark-zuckerberg-meta-metaverse-horizon-worlds-avatar-01.jpg?q=90&w=1400&cbr=1&fit=max https://image-cdn.hypb.st/https%3A%2F%2Fhypebeast.com%2Fimag... I cannot tell which one is real, can you?
- mrtksn 4y ago
  That image of metaverse has become iconic and is used as a very powerful tool of telling the story of how metaverse is failing and I wonder if Zuckerberg will ever be able to fix the damage. What He was thinking? TBH, I never tried VR and when I intended to try VR as I hear good things about Half Life: Alyx I was not able to find a VR centre close to me that has not failed yet. The few I found, all gone. I also have been reading from VR advocates about how it can actually be nice for working because you can have very large view field, as if using multiple large monitors in a distraction-free environment. However for me VR has become this picture of Zuk and I bet I'm not alone because it is so iconic and icons assume the functions of the actual thing in the absence of it. Maybe they shouldn't have been promoting Metaverse to people who don't have the equipment and can't give it a fair go.
  - spywaregorilla 4y ago
    > I never tried VR and when I intended to try VR as I hear good things about Half Life: Alyx Think of VR as a really good arcade on-rails shooter game and that's the gist of Half Life Alyx. It's a good game. But it also left me feeling very disappointed. * You won't move much. You'll peek in and out of cover, which is fun, but you won't actually "move" around all that much for most encounters. People really like ducking in and out of cover to shoot at things, and again, that is genuinely fun. * Some enemies break this mold and require you to move; doing extremely telegraphed attacks that pretty much just require you to move to anywhere that isn't exactly where you're standing at that moment. Specifically just enough that you need to use the controller inputs to move rather than stepping physically. If you stop to think about why the game is designed this way, it's because people are bad at moving irl, and this is about all they can handle. * In general all enemies have this feel of an on rails shooter though, and you have no way to interact with them besides throwing grenades and shooting. You can't melee and a lot of enemies stand just a little too far to seem realistic so that they don't do weird overlaps with your camera. * There's some physical interaction stuff that is good. Stuff that in other games would have been "Press X to do Y" is now a physical machine you need to move around with your hands, especially reloading. But it's also very limited because most of the game is a static mesh that you can't really do anything with. So... yeah, I enjoyed it but it made me pessimistic for the future. I think they worked hard to deal with VR's limitations but they are same damn high walls.

notahacker 4y ago

In fairness, we've still got six or seven years to figure out feeding ourselves with nano bots, perfect our understanding of the human brain via scanning technology and release general AI that runs on commodity hardware. Some impressively wide misses in the 2010s though...

spywaregorilla 4y ago

> Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. I wonder what was up with this one.

saalweachter 4y ago
Haven't you ever seen a movie set in the future? Holograms are all the rage. Holographic displays, holographic phone calls, holographic controls. It's holograms all the way down at some point in the future.
- booleandilemma 4y ago
  It'll be like turning on my webcam for zoom only I have to wear pants.
  - kubanczyk 4y ago
    In the UK you would even need to wear trousers. Conservatives, eh? /s
hndamien 4y ago
Maybe refering to this type of thing - https://www.protohologram.com/ https://www.protohologram.com/

anigbrowl 4y ago

They're not that bad. a lot of them fell short but are foreseeable in the not-too-distant future. Some things he predicted for later ar arguably here or almost here, eg this one for 2029: Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers "know" literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings. I don't know what the deletion of predictions means, but Wikipedia editors in general seem to dislike checklists.

hamiltonians 4y ago

how is he so popular if no one has anything positive to say about him and is always wrong. is he just a creation of the media

taylorius 4y ago
I'm sure the future vr system will holo up some pants for you.