3 ms·

Technically isolation is for the infected and quarantine is for the healthy. I think quarantine orders were largely followed in major cities where the risks of

Technically isolation is for the infected and quarantine is for the healthy. I think quarantine orders were largely followed in major cities where the risks of a run away outbreak was worse. The goal was only secondarily to reduce deaths but primarily to protect the acute medical care system from collapse under a major outbreak. “Flatten the curve” didn’t mean end the local epidemics but to reduce the rate of infection to make the rate of people needing acute medical care lower than the rate the hospital systems able to service patients. Except for a few cases we succeeded. Death is a much more exciting metric to count, but it was never our objective in the public health response. Death was mitigated with the vaccine, and secondarily by the public health orders. (Note outside of China I don’t think there has been any actual lockdown or quarantines despite people abusing that word. Advice to stay home and business closure is not a lockdown. A lockdown means you’re forcibly restricted.) Also - asking people to wear a mask caused hysterical backlash. Can you imagine if we had set up concentration camps for the elderly?

Manuel_D 4y ago
The elderly actually have a strong survival incentive to limit exposure, unlike the bulk of the population. For instance, take the 8% non-vaccination rate among the elderly versus the 32% among non-elderly [1]. Bhattacharya's main point is that "Flatten the curve" is really "widen the curve". Reasonable to do for the at-risk population that are likely to get hospitalized and could create a shortage of hospital resources if they were infected all at once. Not so much for the vast majority of people, and especially not reasonable for children who were at minimal risk. Again, people talk about the need to reduce the load on medical without considering the fact that most non-elderly people who got covid didn't end up in the hospital. > Note outside of China I don’t think there has been any actual lockdown or quarantines despite people abusing that word. Advice to stay home and business closure is not a lockdown. A lockdown means you’re forcibly restricted. This is untrue, in much of Canada and the UK people were forbidden by law to go outside without good reason. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

Manuel_D 4y ago

The elderly actually have a strong survival incentive to limit exposure, unlike the bulk of the population. For instance, take the 8% non-vaccination rate among the elderly versus the 32% among non-elderly [1]. Bhattacharya's main point is that "Flatten the curve" is really "widen the curve". Reasonable to do for the at-risk population that are likely to get hospitalized and could create a shortage of hospital resources if they were infected all at once. Not so much for the vast majority of people, and especially not reasonable for children who were at minimal risk. Again, people talk about the need to reduce the load on medical without considering the fact that most non-elderly people who got covid didn't end up in the hospital. > Note outside of China I don’t think there has been any actual lockdown or quarantines despite people abusing that word. Advice to stay home and business closure is not a lockdown. A lockdown means you’re forcibly restricted. This is untrue, in much of Canada and the UK people were forbidden by law to go outside without good reason. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html