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Europe has already been blackmailed by Russia - when they invaded Ukraine last time, in 2014. That's how we know Russia can only be dealt with by force: becaus
by trasz 4y ago
Europe has already been blackmailed by Russia - when they invaded Ukraine last time, in 2014. That's how we know Russia can only be dealt with by force: because we've tried to do it the other way and it failed terribly.
- mythrwy 4y agoHow do you envision "dealing with Russia through force" going down just curiously? I would imagine there is a similar point of view in many Russians regarding the West (and they can make arguments about abuses and how intrinsically evil the other party is and patriotic jingles and all that too). So how, on that road, does this end? I think we know the answer and it really and truly is awful and the end of the world we have previously known.
- tablespoon 4y ago> How do you envision "dealing with Russia through force" going down just curiously? FYI, they're "dealing with Russia through force" right now. It's just through proxies, and it's going pretty well.
- trasz 4y agoI'd say Ukraine is dealing with Russia through force quite directly, without any proxies. (The context here is that Russians like to pretend they are fighting against NATO; this is of course not true, they are fighting against Ukraine, which got some help from NATO, but it's relatively small compared to NATOs capabilities.) Although there might soon be some "proxies" soon, like Azerbaijan (unfortunately) and (hopefully soon) Georgia.
- trasz 4y agoI envision it exactly the same way it's already been going for the past six months: Russia has lost about half of their armed forces. The road ends the same way it ended last time, 30 years ago - in adjustment of Russian borders. Unless you claim that a state that can't even manufacture tanks or ordinary cars (or phones; Russia is wholly dependent on technology imports from Europe) is still capable of remanufacturing nuclear warheads, and is willing to sacrifice itself as a state to use them to... not even prove the point, because it would still be a defeat.
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- mythrwy 4y agoHere's what I see happening. Some back and forth, increasing desperate Neocons with no reverse gear pushing the thing. Western society is over indebted and teetering. Eventually the world explodes in fire, billions die, and some version of MAGA presides over a much reduced United States when it ends. (I'd rather believe your prediction but do not). There might be a way to avoid the scenario (unlikely at this juncture but possible). It isn't with wishful (Russia has lost half it's armed forces) and hostile thinking though. Just my opinion.
- trasz 4y agoTo the vast majority of the world this is a good thing, if anything - they get oil cheaper, because Russia can no longer sell it to the west. To US this means more money being pumped into the industry, which is good for their economy. EU... EU has already been through something much more hardcore - COVID - and temporarily shutting down some gas-dependent factories will reduce revenues, but it's not the end of the world. None of those are in any way in danger - Russia lost to Ukraine; one can only imagine how many hours it would take them to lose to, say, NATO. Or USA. Or EU alone. The world won't explode, simply because Russia has no capability to make it explode. To Ukraine, this is about pretty much everything - Russians are quite open with their intention to erase Ukraine as a nation, and hundred thousand civilians killed in Mariupol alone proves they are serious. And then there's Russia, USSR's retarded offspring. They will likely get a lifeline, but it's unlikely they will be allowed to keep the army.
- mythrwy 4y agoWell, although I wish it were not so, it's an interesting time to be alive. We will see.