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It's a pendulum cycle. Boom & bust cycles always are. What happens is a couple people strike it rich, then a bunch of followers try to do the same thing, it ma
by ahoyhere 15y ago
It's a pendulum cycle. Boom & bust cycles always are.
What happens is a couple people strike it rich, then a bunch of followers try to do the same thing, it may work for a little while but not for long, and when the stupidest, most inefficient people have got in on the act, there's no money left for them AND they do things that end up looking terribly ridiculous. After all that, even the smart players have thrown in lots of money and/or time, they look at how much they spent and go "hmmmm, that's a lot, better calm down." Then there's a bust.
By "smart" and "dumb" I am referring to: investors, buyers, and founders. The labels apply to them all. VCs don't have infinite money. The two or three companies who do the most acquisitions also do not have an unlimited appetite or money, and they also tend to shut down or wreck most of what they buy.
So at that critical point, everybody lays low for a little while. Then they forget, and start all over again.
Nobody remembers that this is exactly what happened the last time.