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Those numbers ARE ABSOLUTELY WORHTLESS. "capacity filled in percent" is a WORTHLESS METRIC that tells the lay reader NOTHING at all. Austria might have a max c

Those numbers ARE ABSOLUTELY WORHTLESS. "capacity filled in percent" is a WORTHLESS METRIC that tells the lay reader NOTHING at all. Austria might have a max capacity of 60% of their yearly demand, Germany might have 200% (made up numbers for illustration). In that case with full capacity, Austria could survive 4 months, while Germany could go two years. Yes, this disregards cross-country sharing, but even averaged across different countries, percentage means nothing. It doesn't tell us anything. The one and only question is: "How long can we go without new gas?" and percentage values don't answer it. Capacity should be displayed either in average-demand days or a timeframe (= How many days could we satisfy demand with our stored gas alone?).

derriz 4y ago
The answer to your question "How long can we go without new gas?" would be a meaningless metric if not accompanied with a large amount of qualification. What is meant by "without new gas"? Without LNG shipments? Without local/European produced NG? Or just without Russian NG imports? Without any imports? What does it mean "to go"? To consume at some historical rate? Consumption varies with NG prices - recently consumption has been curtailed as a result of high NG prices. At a macro scale, NG consumption has been falling. Europe-wide annual consumption is about 20% less than it was 10 years ago. And an unqualified time answer - say one month, for example - would be meaningless as the rate of gas consumption is highly seasonal at various scales (daily, weekly, annually). A winter month is not equal to a summer month for example.
- Traubenfuchs 4y ago
  > What is meant by "without new gas"? I guess that could all be calculated and presented and give us an idea. The looming threat is Russia not giving us any of their gas now, other sources are "safe", so I guess that's the baseline: How long can we go without Russian gas? > And an unqualified time answer - say one month, for example - would be meaningless as the rate of gas consumption is highly seasonal at various scales (daily, weekly, annually). A winter month is not equal to a summer month for example. That's why I discerned between "average consumption days" and "timeframe from now on / day x on".
  - 1ris 4y ago
    Russia has shut down pretty much all of their supplies, and here we are, filling the storage for the winter. Storage levels are average. That's probably about as close as you can get to having an idea. You might also have a look at the graphs at bruegel, but that wont help all that much. It's very vague, but so is the situation.

derriz 4y ago

The answer to your question "How long can we go without new gas?" would be a meaningless metric if not accompanied with a large amount of qualification. What is meant by "without new gas"? Without LNG shipments? Without local/European produced NG? Or just without Russian NG imports? Without any imports? What does it mean "to go"? To consume at some historical rate? Consumption varies with NG prices - recently consumption has been curtailed as a result of high NG prices. At a macro scale, NG consumption has been falling. Europe-wide annual consumption is about 20% less than it was 10 years ago. And an unqualified time answer - say one month, for example - would be meaningless as the rate of gas consumption is highly seasonal at various scales (daily, weekly, annually). A winter month is not equal to a summer month for example.

Traubenfuchs 4y ago
> What is meant by "without new gas"? I guess that could all be calculated and presented and give us an idea. The looming threat is Russia not giving us any of their gas now, other sources are "safe", so I guess that's the baseline: How long can we go without Russian gas? > And an unqualified time answer - say one month, for example - would be meaningless as the rate of gas consumption is highly seasonal at various scales (daily, weekly, annually). A winter month is not equal to a summer month for example. That's why I discerned between "average consumption days" and "timeframe from now on / day x on".
- 1ris 4y ago
  Russia has shut down pretty much all of their supplies, and here we are, filling the storage for the winter. Storage levels are average. That's probably about as close as you can get to having an idea. You might also have a look at the graphs at bruegel, but that wont help all that much. It's very vague, but so is the situation.