4 ms·

It would be much more interesting to see how many days of gas runway each country has based on historical usage.

by nanl2053 4y ago

1ris 4y ago
That would be a very useless data, as gas consumption depends on the price. And the price is at a historic high, so we simply don't know what that means. German Grid regulator BNetzA created forecasts based on historic consumption and assumed savings. But right now we have storage level way above even the most wildly optimistic scenario. This forcast is so hard i don't think it has any merit. You can have a look at the AGSI+ [1], they list a Stock/Consuption ratio as 22%. But this number is IHMO meaningless, as it does not mean all is well for 22% of a year = 78 days, and than everything collapses. [1] https://agsi.gie.eu/ https://agsi.gie.eu/
- Guthur 4y ago
  - 1ris 4y ago
    Sorry, but what you write nonsense and incoherent. >What utter nonsense, of course historical trends are important, we've had high prices before. Not remotely as high as we have had. Drawing conclusions from price elasticity at 25€ to price elasticity at 300€ is nothing but pure speculations. >. Also many companies would normally hedge the prices, after all large factories and power stations don't just shutdown because of price fluctuations. Made up financial instruments are useless when the counterparty simply does not fullfill their contracts. Right now we care about actual prices, for actual, physical delivery. >The problem we have now is that the idiotic policies of EU governments will make the price essentially infinite because there will be no f'ing gas. Conterpoint: The price is not infinite. What's happening with the infinite money glitch for buying gas for storage is that the price of the scarcity in the winter was priced in since this spring. Spreading out a scarcity event to something longer and less serve gives markets time to adjust. There is nothing idiotic about this, it's pure common sense. >This year is massively exceptional Yes, that's my point, why forecasts do not make much sense. >aforementioned strategic leadership from the governments but we've had plenty of "normal" years to draw consumption trends from. And what's your point? Is the not exceptional and we can make forecasts, or is it infinite? Your post is completely incoherent and does not make any sense.

It would be much more interesting to see how many days of gas runway each country has based on historical usage.

1ris 4y ago

That would be a very useless data, as gas consumption depends on the price. And the price is at a historic high, so we simply don't know what that means. German Grid regulator BNetzA created forecasts based on historic consumption and assumed savings. But right now we have storage level way above even the most wildly optimistic scenario. This forcast is so hard i don't think it has any merit. You can have a look at the AGSI+ [1], they list a Stock/Consuption ratio as 22%. But this number is IHMO meaningless, as it does not mean all is well for 22% of a year = 78 days, and than everything collapses. [1] https://agsi.gie.eu/ https://agsi.gie.eu/

Guthur 4y ago
- 1ris 4y ago
  Sorry, but what you write nonsense and incoherent. >What utter nonsense, of course historical trends are important, we've had high prices before. Not remotely as high as we have had. Drawing conclusions from price elasticity at 25€ to price elasticity at 300€ is nothing but pure speculations. >. Also many companies would normally hedge the prices, after all large factories and power stations don't just shutdown because of price fluctuations. Made up financial instruments are useless when the counterparty simply does not fullfill their contracts. Right now we care about actual prices, for actual, physical delivery. >The problem we have now is that the idiotic policies of EU governments will make the price essentially infinite because there will be no f'ing gas. Conterpoint: The price is not infinite. What's happening with the infinite money glitch for buying gas for storage is that the price of the scarcity in the winter was priced in since this spring. Spreading out a scarcity event to something longer and less serve gives markets time to adjust. There is nothing idiotic about this, it's pure common sense. >This year is massively exceptional Yes, that's my point, why forecasts do not make much sense. >aforementioned strategic leadership from the governments but we've had plenty of "normal" years to draw consumption trends from. And what's your point? Is the not exceptional and we can make forecasts, or is it infinite? Your post is completely incoherent and does not make any sense.