4 ms·

Talk to Pakistan about that.

• johnnymorgan 4y ago
  That's a cycle and has happened before, long before these claims. Do better please
  • deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  • mellavora 4y ago
    Ok, since we are explicitly discussing floods, and you explicity say "cycle that has happened before", Define flooding as California megaflood puts LA/Orange county underwater. TL/DR, risk is now 2x historic and is expected to rise to 4-7x historic. Historical: floods equal to or greater in magnitude to those in 1862 occur five to seven times per millennium [i.e., a 1.0 to 0.5% annual likelihood or 100- to 200-year recurrence interval (RI)] ... We find that climate change to date (as of 2022) has already increased the annual likelihood of an ARkHist event by ~105% relative to 1920 in the CESM1-LENS ensemble and of an even higher magnitude (200-year RI) event by ~234%. This finding is consistent with prior work reporting progressively larger increases in projected extreme precipitation events for increasing event magnitudes [e.g., (42)]. We further find that by ~2060, on a high emissions trajectory, the annual likelihood of an ARkHist level event increases by ~374% and by ~683% for a formerly 200-year RI event. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq0995 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq0995
• sacrosancty 4y ago
  Pakistan in its current state could be what civilizational collapse in the west would look like. You can't fall off the floor.