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It would be interesting to know the end game here. If the Ukrainian war ends, I assume that isn't the end of it. I assume the taps from Russia will turn back o

It would be interesting to know the end game here. If the Ukrainian war ends, I assume that isn't the end of it. I assume the taps from Russia will turn back on, but it has shown itself to be an unreliable supply.

RandomWorker 4y ago
There is an emergency plan being executed and expedited to reduce total gas demand by 30%, which just happens to be the amount Europe imports. With half of that 15% this winter.
- yabqk 4y ago
  Reducing energy consumption will only lead to impoverishment.
  - desindol 4y ago
    Citation needed.
  - lucumo 4y ago
    Not all reduction of consumption decreases output. For example, leaks could be plugged, insulation can be improved, more efficient machines could be used. Also, not all output is equal, not does all output have to be done at a fixed time. Heating homes has to be done during winter, but some factories can postpone production a few months to wait for more favourable circumstances. Furthermore, it's only a reduction in a few energy sources that are required, with gas being the most important. Other sources could be used to compensate to an extent. We're seeing some gas power plants moving back to coal for example. Not great for carbon emissions, but it has more and more flexible sources.
    - MandieD 4y ago
      For example, a lot of cities in Germany cut back on indoor pools this summer, and are considering it for the winter. Sounds trivial, but keeping 25m long indoor pool 23-24 degrees in the winter takes a lot of energy. It would suck for people who had gotten used to them being open again after the Covid years, but wouldn’t have much negative economic impact.
      - sofixa 4y ago
        In France indoor ice rinks are getting closed too. Again, it's trivial but they consume lots of energy.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    So will permitting extortion of an entire continent by a dictatorship. The goal is not to permanently ration. The goal is to get through the winter, so there’s time for the longer term fixes to be put in place.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    Fortunately, not all energy consumption is gas.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
    Please tell me how keeping your house at 70 degrees and wearing warm clothing instead of 72 degrees and wearing a t-shirt is impoverishment.
  - rsynnott 4y ago
    If you look at the current plans in most countries, they're largely about reducing waste and excessive usage. I mean... you could consider not being allowed to heat your private swimming pool "impoverishment", but probably only if you were comically wealthy and entitled. (I'm actually a little surprised just _how_ un-aggressive the plans generally are.)
papito 4y ago
This is going to be an "at your own risk" thing. If a country wants to build its economy around energy supplies from a regime that has shown it can and will use the energy tap as leverage and as a weapon, don't run crying back to mommy. I think everyone understands that.
Schroedingersat 4y ago
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/02/hysata-brings-capillary-fed-eletrolyzer-tech-closer-to-commercial-production/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/02/hysata-brings-capilla... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435118301910 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254243511... Throw in some <$100/kWh 4-12hr storage, and it's starting to look really appealing to make your own.
kryptiskt 4y ago
Hopefully the end game will be to see this as an opportunity to do something against climate change and lower the gas consumption permanently. I doubt that will happen though.
- pydry 4y ago
  Me too. A flagging economy would make capital investments in green energy even more difficult. If China decides to sanction us we will also lose access to most of the underpriced green energy. A flagging economy, no gas and skyrocketing solar panel/wind turbine prices will mean a lot more coal. Europe didnt make enough hay while the sun was shining.
pydry 4y ago
I think Russian bet is that Europe would take 3-7 years to shift dependence away from Russian gas and that in the mean time a lack of access to cheap energy will lead to economic collapse, which will ultimately make the shift even harder. Putin is not testing our resolve but our ability. I suspect the goal is also also to trigger conflicts between EU member nations over energy scarcity. E.g. Germany has enough gas to last Germany for the winter so it prioritizes Germany and throws Lithuania under the bus so Lithuania lashes out, etc. A short term scarcity will lead to long term fractures - maybe even EU exits. Meanwhile, this opens the door for politicians who will make peace with Russia and bring the gas taps back online and revive a sputtering economy - a role that Orban seems to be trying to fill pre-emptively.
- ben_w 4y ago
  Mm. Plausibly what they think. I don't know when countries typically shift from economic conflict to kinetic conflict, but I hope that Russian intelligence isn't dumb/arrogant enough to assume that transition has zero probability.
- foverzar 4y ago
  Russia hoping for European economic collapse would be just as stupid as Europe hoping for Russia's economic collapse. They are too entangled at this point for either to survive the collapse of another.
dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
> I assume the taps from Russia will turn back on Why? The current trend is to work hard in order to reduce any form of business with Russia that would help them to rebuild the army and become a threat again.
- Hamuko 4y ago
  I assume that turning the taps back on would be seen as a short-term thing in order to fill storages and avoid short-term economic/humanitarian domestic issues. There's surely no country left left in the EU that considers Russia to be a tolerable long-term trading partner, except maybe for Hungary.
  - ethbr0 4y ago
    I don't think even Hungary trusts Russia as a trading partner... they just see them as useful to Hungary. Especially right now, when they can leverage the Russian situation and annoy the EU by striking favorable deals.
- benj111 4y ago
  And just after that quote I said: >but it has shown itself to be an unreliable supply Russia is using gas to try and keep Europe out of the conflict. Once the war ends that ceases to be a motivator. Thus I assume they will turn the taps back on. That doesn't mean we want to rely on it which is the whole point of the question. Victory in Ukraine doesn't end this, so what's the end game. Is there going to be a further push for renewables? Gas from other sources? What's the time frames?
  - dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
    > Russia is using gas to try and keep Europe out of the conflict. But it's not working, is it? Practically the whole Europe is helping Ukraine, sending weapons and everything we can to help. It's not the question of how much gas Russia offers, it's the question of how much Europe is willing to take from them. Russia's status is very close to North Korea now - it's just unethical to make business with a state that got mentally stuck in XIX century and still thinks killing innocent people to grab more land is a good strategy.
Saig6 4y ago
I assume countries in the EU will no longer eschew longer gas contracts in favor of the spot market. The contracts have always been available and you might not have much faith in Russia any more but Europes second largest gas provider, Norway is still here. It's only a matter of making the choice.
MandieD 4y ago
A view from Germany: Up to Russian invasion this February: old oil furnaces were being avidly replaced with natural gas ones. Solar installations were starting to slack off. Lots of re-roofing and new exterior wall insulation. Since then: no slacking in the roofing and exterior wall insulation, but now everyone has a keen interest in heat pumps, and solar panels are being installed everywhere. Gonna be hard to convince people to take their chances again with a fuel from such an unreliable source in the next few years, I think, especially if this is a bad winter and rationing happens.
- hellweaver666 4y ago
  I'm currently renovating a house. My government are offering subsidies if you disconnect your gas supply and go all-electric. We'll be doing that alongside full solar (possibly with battery) and heat-pumps for heating/cooling.
  - TacticalCoder 4y ago
    Be careful though: there are regions in the EU where electricity prices went crazy up. I know people who had a fixed plan at 120 EUR / month from an electricity company that went belly up who needed to take a new plan. My brother went from 120 EUR / month to 400 EUR / month for his electricity bill. Sister-in-law got 6 K EUR year-on-year adjustment for her electricity bill (so 500 EUR more per month on average). And a friend, for a big house granted, went from 120 EUR / month to 800 EUR / month.
- z9znz 4y ago
  Few people want to plan ahead (and spend the money that goes along with being prepared)... until they are in trouble. I won't say that good things have come from this war, but it certainly is a wake-up call for countries to get their future plans in better order. There is simply no excuse for the most industrially advanced country in the world (Germany) to have slacked off so much when it comes to energy. It must be some political angle, because not too many years ago Germany was one of the leaders in expanding their renewable energy sources.
- TacticalCoder 4y ago
mlang79 4y ago

RandomWorker 4y ago

There is an emergency plan being executed and expedited to reduce total gas demand by 30%, which just happens to be the amount Europe imports. With half of that 15% this winter.

yabqk 4y ago
Reducing energy consumption will only lead to impoverishment.
- desindol 4y ago
  Citation needed.
- lucumo 4y ago
  Not all reduction of consumption decreases output. For example, leaks could be plugged, insulation can be improved, more efficient machines could be used. Also, not all output is equal, not does all output have to be done at a fixed time. Heating homes has to be done during winter, but some factories can postpone production a few months to wait for more favourable circumstances. Furthermore, it's only a reduction in a few energy sources that are required, with gas being the most important. Other sources could be used to compensate to an extent. We're seeing some gas power plants moving back to coal for example. Not great for carbon emissions, but it has more and more flexible sources.
  - MandieD 4y ago
    For example, a lot of cities in Germany cut back on indoor pools this summer, and are considering it for the winter. Sounds trivial, but keeping 25m long indoor pool 23-24 degrees in the winter takes a lot of energy. It would suck for people who had gotten used to them being open again after the Covid years, but wouldn’t have much negative economic impact.
    - sofixa 4y ago
      In France indoor ice rinks are getting closed too. Again, it's trivial but they consume lots of energy.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  So will permitting extortion of an entire continent by a dictatorship. The goal is not to permanently ration. The goal is to get through the winter, so there’s time for the longer term fixes to be put in place.
- ben_w 4y ago
  Fortunately, not all energy consumption is gas.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  Please tell me how keeping your house at 70 degrees and wearing warm clothing instead of 72 degrees and wearing a t-shirt is impoverishment.
- rsynnott 4y ago
  If you look at the current plans in most countries, they're largely about reducing waste and excessive usage. I mean... you could consider not being allowed to heat your private swimming pool "impoverishment", but probably only if you were comically wealthy and entitled. (I'm actually a little surprised just _how_ un-aggressive the plans generally are.)

papito 4y ago

This is going to be an "at your own risk" thing. If a country wants to build its economy around energy supplies from a regime that has shown it can and will use the energy tap as leverage and as a weapon, don't run crying back to mommy. I think everyone understands that.

Schroedingersat 4y ago

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/02/hysata-brings-capillary-fed-eletrolyzer-tech-closer-to-commercial-production/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/02/hysata-brings-capilla... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435118301910 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254243511... Throw in some <$100/kWh 4-12hr storage, and it's starting to look really appealing to make your own.

kryptiskt 4y ago

Hopefully the end game will be to see this as an opportunity to do something against climate change and lower the gas consumption permanently. I doubt that will happen though.

pydry 4y ago
Me too. A flagging economy would make capital investments in green energy even more difficult. If China decides to sanction us we will also lose access to most of the underpriced green energy. A flagging economy, no gas and skyrocketing solar panel/wind turbine prices will mean a lot more coal. Europe didnt make enough hay while the sun was shining.

pydry 4y ago

I think Russian bet is that Europe would take 3-7 years to shift dependence away from Russian gas and that in the mean time a lack of access to cheap energy will lead to economic collapse, which will ultimately make the shift even harder. Putin is not testing our resolve but our ability. I suspect the goal is also also to trigger conflicts between EU member nations over energy scarcity. E.g. Germany has enough gas to last Germany for the winter so it prioritizes Germany and throws Lithuania under the bus so Lithuania lashes out, etc. A short term scarcity will lead to long term fractures - maybe even EU exits. Meanwhile, this opens the door for politicians who will make peace with Russia and bring the gas taps back online and revive a sputtering economy - a role that Orban seems to be trying to fill pre-emptively.

ben_w 4y ago
Mm. Plausibly what they think. I don't know when countries typically shift from economic conflict to kinetic conflict, but I hope that Russian intelligence isn't dumb/arrogant enough to assume that transition has zero probability.
foverzar 4y ago
Russia hoping for European economic collapse would be just as stupid as Europe hoping for Russia's economic collapse. They are too entangled at this point for either to survive the collapse of another.

dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago

> I assume the taps from Russia will turn back on Why? The current trend is to work hard in order to reduce any form of business with Russia that would help them to rebuild the army and become a threat again.

Hamuko 4y ago
I assume that turning the taps back on would be seen as a short-term thing in order to fill storages and avoid short-term economic/humanitarian domestic issues. There's surely no country left left in the EU that considers Russia to be a tolerable long-term trading partner, except maybe for Hungary.
- ethbr0 4y ago
  I don't think even Hungary trusts Russia as a trading partner... they just see them as useful to Hungary. Especially right now, when they can leverage the Russian situation and annoy the EU by striking favorable deals.
benj111 4y ago
And just after that quote I said: >but it has shown itself to be an unreliable supply Russia is using gas to try and keep Europe out of the conflict. Once the war ends that ceases to be a motivator. Thus I assume they will turn the taps back on. That doesn't mean we want to rely on it which is the whole point of the question. Victory in Ukraine doesn't end this, so what's the end game. Is there going to be a further push for renewables? Gas from other sources? What's the time frames?
- dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
  > Russia is using gas to try and keep Europe out of the conflict. But it's not working, is it? Practically the whole Europe is helping Ukraine, sending weapons and everything we can to help. It's not the question of how much gas Russia offers, it's the question of how much Europe is willing to take from them. Russia's status is very close to North Korea now - it's just unethical to make business with a state that got mentally stuck in XIX century and still thinks killing innocent people to grab more land is a good strategy.

Saig6 4y ago

I assume countries in the EU will no longer eschew longer gas contracts in favor of the spot market. The contracts have always been available and you might not have much faith in Russia any more but Europes second largest gas provider, Norway is still here. It's only a matter of making the choice.

MandieD 4y ago

A view from Germany: Up to Russian invasion this February: old oil furnaces were being avidly replaced with natural gas ones. Solar installations were starting to slack off. Lots of re-roofing and new exterior wall insulation. Since then: no slacking in the roofing and exterior wall insulation, but now everyone has a keen interest in heat pumps, and solar panels are being installed everywhere. Gonna be hard to convince people to take their chances again with a fuel from such an unreliable source in the next few years, I think, especially if this is a bad winter and rationing happens.

hellweaver666 4y ago
I'm currently renovating a house. My government are offering subsidies if you disconnect your gas supply and go all-electric. We'll be doing that alongside full solar (possibly with battery) and heat-pumps for heating/cooling.
- TacticalCoder 4y ago
  Be careful though: there are regions in the EU where electricity prices went crazy up. I know people who had a fixed plan at 120 EUR / month from an electricity company that went belly up who needed to take a new plan. My brother went from 120 EUR / month to 400 EUR / month for his electricity bill. Sister-in-law got 6 K EUR year-on-year adjustment for her electricity bill (so 500 EUR more per month on average). And a friend, for a big house granted, went from 120 EUR / month to 800 EUR / month.
z9znz 4y ago
Few people want to plan ahead (and spend the money that goes along with being prepared)... until they are in trouble. I won't say that good things have come from this war, but it certainly is a wake-up call for countries to get their future plans in better order. There is simply no excuse for the most industrially advanced country in the world (Germany) to have slacked off so much when it comes to energy. It must be some political angle, because not too many years ago Germany was one of the leaders in expanding their renewable energy sources.
TacticalCoder 4y ago

mlang79 4y ago