The former is going to be literally true on the grounds that climate change is increasing chaos in the system, hence unpredictability increases strikingly. I'm

The former is going to be literally true on the grounds that climate change is increasing chaos in the system, hence unpredictability increases strikingly. I'm not sure this happens on the time scale of 'app got acquired', though. It's absolutely going to increase year by year, and if you'd got used to how it was three years ago and didn't notice some of the outlier events, you might be shocked at the new normal. Climate change absolutely will cause problems with any conceivable forecasting model because you can't encapsulate chaos, only map its expected potential outcomes: and the nasty truth is that energy is fed into the system, those potential outcomes blow up exponentially. Not even slightly linear. So that's what we're seeing.