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This. Every time I see articles like this -- pointing out how large full-time admin and operations teams are now replaced with smaller teams and easy-to-manage

This. Every time I see articles like this -- pointing out how large full-time admin and operations teams are now replaced with smaller teams and easy-to-manage infrastructure -- I wonder if something similar will happen to software engineering. In fact, I am sure that something like this must eventually happen to engineering. The cost involved in designing and developing new services will be reduced to only that which is essential. I just dont know what form it will take. Will newer, easy-to-use libraries reduce the work of five engineers to one? Will basic application development knowledge become so ubiquitous that engineers are only needed for the harder, more obscure challenges? Will all of engineering be reduced to only the most creative work, with all the logic and plumbing provided automagically by intelligent programming environments? Probably all of the above. What's a dev to do?

Tycho 15y ago
Devs are used to learning new technologies regularly. Libraries that reduce the work of 5 people to the work of one are common place. Before RDBMSs, database queries had to be manually programmed on a case-by-case basis, including disk access etc. When one bottleneck has been solved, devs simply move on to other, more awesome tasks. Unfortunately most of the population does not share this constant learning philosophy.
balloot 15y ago
Yes, we all yearn for the days when cloud computing data centers were run by thousands and thousands of operations engineers. Sadly, those times are no longer here - mostly because they're a figment of your imagination. But don't let that stop you from assuming for no good reason that the software industry is about to die. People have been making that assumption for 10 years or so now, so you have plenty of good company.
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
- jessedhillon 15y ago
  http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man I didn't say that a single data center employed thousands of engineers, or that the software industry is dying. But don't let that stop you from having an imaginary argument.
marshallp 15y ago
If you can't beat them, join them. Figure out what technologies are destroying jobs and be one of the job destroyers.
- cousin_it 15y ago
  If all but 20% of programming jobs will become redundant, what advice would you give to the remaining 80% of programmers? "Starve because there's too many of you to fit in the 20%"?
  - myhf 15y ago
    Work at a higher efficiency for someone who was unable to afford paying you to work at a lower efficiency.
- Mvandenbergh 15y ago
  There's two different ways of looking at this sort of issue though. One is from the perspective of a participant in the job market, from that point of view it isn't such a huge problem. Predicting where efficiency improvements will shift factor intensity from labour to capital is something that most people here are able to do for their own field. I'm sure, for instance, that every system administrator reading this has already taken into account the effect of cloud services on their career. Smart people will build their expertise in managing cloud systems, move into a tighter integration with developers (DevOps), or specialise in an area that is more resistant to being moved into the cloud for performance and security reasons. That's great, but it's a little like developing an optimal musical chairs strategy, if there are 10 such jobs today and 9 tomorrow then one person isn't going to have a job. Even if he has also tried to adopt an optimal strategy. That brings me to the second view, which is viewing the entire system from the outside. That can be in the role of an economist, a citizen, whatever. From that macro point of view, what is important is only the following: Will the net job losses in this particular job eventually be outweighed by countervailing job gains in other parts of the economy? Historically, that has always been the case. Ever since this became a topic of discussion in the early industrial revolution it has happened time and time again that new jobs pop up that no-one could have imagined a generation ago. The question is though, is that inevitable? Will there come a point where job losses from efficiency will outpace the gain in new jobs? I have no idea what the answer to this is. If it were to come to pass that huge swathes of the population simply don't have any valuable labour to exchange, then the basis of an economy and society based on the exchange of labour for resources would unravel.
ippisl 15y ago
One thing is to deeply understand the business domain and how to work with business domain people. That always helps.and those skills seems much less prone to outsourcing and automation.

Tycho 15y ago

Devs are used to learning new technologies regularly. Libraries that reduce the work of 5 people to the work of one are common place. Before RDBMSs, database queries had to be manually programmed on a case-by-case basis, including disk access etc. When one bottleneck has been solved, devs simply move on to other, more awesome tasks. Unfortunately most of the population does not share this constant learning philosophy.

balloot 15y ago

Yes, we all yearn for the days when cloud computing data centers were run by thousands and thousands of operations engineers. Sadly, those times are no longer here - mostly because they're a figment of your imagination. But don't let that stop you from assuming for no good reason that the software industry is about to die. People have been making that assumption for 10 years or so now, so you have plenty of good company.

deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
jessedhillon 15y ago
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man I didn't say that a single data center employed thousands of engineers, or that the software industry is dying. But don't let that stop you from having an imaginary argument.

marshallp 15y ago

If you can't beat them, join them. Figure out what technologies are destroying jobs and be one of the job destroyers.

cousin_it 15y ago
If all but 20% of programming jobs will become redundant, what advice would you give to the remaining 80% of programmers? "Starve because there's too many of you to fit in the 20%"?
- myhf 15y ago
  Work at a higher efficiency for someone who was unable to afford paying you to work at a lower efficiency.
Mvandenbergh 15y ago
There's two different ways of looking at this sort of issue though. One is from the perspective of a participant in the job market, from that point of view it isn't such a huge problem. Predicting where efficiency improvements will shift factor intensity from labour to capital is something that most people here are able to do for their own field. I'm sure, for instance, that every system administrator reading this has already taken into account the effect of cloud services on their career. Smart people will build their expertise in managing cloud systems, move into a tighter integration with developers (DevOps), or specialise in an area that is more resistant to being moved into the cloud for performance and security reasons. That's great, but it's a little like developing an optimal musical chairs strategy, if there are 10 such jobs today and 9 tomorrow then one person isn't going to have a job. Even if he has also tried to adopt an optimal strategy. That brings me to the second view, which is viewing the entire system from the outside. That can be in the role of an economist, a citizen, whatever. From that macro point of view, what is important is only the following: Will the net job losses in this particular job eventually be outweighed by countervailing job gains in other parts of the economy? Historically, that has always been the case. Ever since this became a topic of discussion in the early industrial revolution it has happened time and time again that new jobs pop up that no-one could have imagined a generation ago. The question is though, is that inevitable? Will there come a point where job losses from efficiency will outpace the gain in new jobs? I have no idea what the answer to this is. If it were to come to pass that huge swathes of the population simply don't have any valuable labour to exchange, then the basis of an economy and society based on the exchange of labour for resources would unravel.

ippisl 15y ago

One thing is to deeply understand the business domain and how to work with business domain people. That always helps.and those skills seems much less prone to outsourcing and automation.