This analogy is likely based on a pair of complimentary theories in criminology. The first is that criminals commit crimes in an area they know, so their activi

This analogy is likely based on a pair of complimentary theories in criminology. The first is that criminals commit crimes in an area they know, so their activity is distributed close to home. The second theory essentially says “yeah, but not /too close/“ - and that criminals will leave a buffer zone around their home. So, plot a torus with the center on the offenders home, and most crimes will occur on the disk. This would also work with the pattern a radial lawn sprinkler would make. Unfortunately, while neat theories, the reproduction crisis is happening in criminology as well and I can’t find a good systemic review that says either theory is particularly good. But criminologists believe them, so the show isn’t that far off in those regards.