"There's no doubt a lot of the actions had positive impact on immediate disease transmission" Sigh :( There is actually an enormous amount of doubt about this.

"There's no doubt a lot of the actions had positive impact on immediate disease transmission" Sigh :( There is actually an enormous amount of doubt about this. The Nature article is a small improvement in accuracy from their previous positions, but is still fundamentally incorrect and shows that the scientific elites are still in denial about the depths of their failure. If their beliefs about lockdown effectiveness and necessity were anywhere near accurate, Sweden would have the highest COVID death tolls out there. In fact they sit at the bottom of the European COVID mortality league table, with both far less impact from COVID countermeasures and also some of the lowest COVID mortality. The studies claiming lockdowns work are junk science. They typically reach their conclusions by comparing actual mortality to predictions from models and then observing the models predicted far more. They go from this to "lockdowns work". This isn't a valid inference because the gap can also be explained by the models being wrong, as indeed they were proven to be many times. Lockdowns are highly effective in models that assume extremely localized and transient transmission, a.k.a. the droplet model. In the real world they appear to have no effect on COVID and this is best explained by transmission being dominated by aerosols. In the aerosol model SARS-CoV-2 spreads like a gas. It can hang in the air for long periods, enter via the eyeballs and spread through air ducts. This model should have been seriously considered by scientists at every point because SARS-1 appears to have spread this way, but they ignored it. Instead epidemiologists simply assumed a particular form of transmission, along with many other things. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=SWE~Europe https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16696450/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16696450/