3 ms·

The global situation w.r.t war and the ensuing energy and food shortages were caused by Vladimir Putin starting a war. How exactly is it that you think lockdow

The global situation w.r.t war and the ensuing energy and food shortages were caused by Vladimir Putin starting a war. How exactly is it that you think lockdowns influenced Vladimir Putin to do that?

roenxi 4y ago
Well, the lockdowns triggered a general collapse of oil prices as using oil suddenly became illegal. The oil price went negative (!) for a few amazing moments. Possibly that destablisied the Russian economy, spooked Putin, and convinced Russian high command that a desperate gamble was needed to try and unite the public against a foreign foe. China could do something similar, Xi wanting to unite the people behind a patriotic war to distract from a Hindenburg-style economic explosion. The protests in the US got noticeably more violent in the US around the same time as the lockdowns which is probably related to the economic stresses of the shut-down-the-economy policies. I imagine it would be worse in countries that aren't democracies; there are less outlets for the anger. And it seems obvious to me that we're feeling the snap-back effect of all the oil fields being shut down, + the inflation from rather extreme money handouts during the pandemic. A lot of the current economic troubles (which would also tend to contribute to people feeling stressed and war-like) are probably linked to the lockdowns through that mechanism.
- munch117 4y ago
  The Russian military action against Ukraine started in 2014, long before that.
  - roenxi 4y ago
    Are you going to argue that the present situation in Ukraine is equivalent to the situation at the start of 2020? I suppose it might be, I wasn't paying a lot of attention. But my strong suspicion there has been a bit of a turning point that happened after COVID hit, possibly on or about 24 February 2022. It is notable that there was a long stretch of relative calm that ended around the time everyone switched off their economies. The original Crimea annexation didn't have all these headlines of global food shortages and energy crisii either, raising the questions of "why is this time so much worse?" and "why is this escalating?". You can blame Putin if you want, but lets be real - economic stresses are a big factor in war and peace.
    - munch117 4y ago
      The motivation behind the two events is the same. Putin sees in the very existence of Ukraine the loss of some glorious USSR past. The timing may have changed due to circumstances, but I think it's likely that escalation would have happened sooner or later anyway. Economic considerations would have been a great reason to not start a war. COVID-19 did not cause food shortages and an energy crisis. The war did.
      - roenxi 4y ago
        > The motivation behind the two events is the same. Putin sees... Putin has been running Russia for more than 20 years. So while he may or may not believe that, the timing of war starting right after the COVID pandemic is at least a little suspicious. > COVID-19 did not cause food shortages and an energy crisis. The war did. The crippling sanctions that Russia is imposing on the West are certainly the first order cause, but we must nevertheless observe that under more ordinary conditions maybe there would be some slack elsewhere in the world that could make up a bit more of the difference. We were seeing signs of food and energy pressure before the war. It has been brewing for a while now.
origin_path 4y ago
That's an interesting one. It has actually been speculated that lockdowns influenced Putin to do that. https://www.aston.ac.uk/latest-news/podcast-russia-expert-discusses-fears-putins-madness-over-ukraine https://www.aston.ac.uk/latest-news/podcast-russia-expert-di... "Dr Schimpfössl said Putin had been “extremely isolated” during the pandemic, with very few people allowed to see him in his “bunker”. She added: “It might well be, as bizarre as it sounds and unimaginable as it might be, that he is losing it and courting advice from people who have such fear of him that they would say what he wanted to hear.”" The invasion of Ukraine appears to have caught even Putin's generals by total surprise. It was quite clearly not well planned and Putin was over-confident to an extreme degree, i.e. he did not fully understand the situation his military was truly in. Putin is nearly 70. During COVID he became a lockdown paranoiac even by the standards of the time. As a consequence his ability to absorb information or check things for himself would have been much reduced. https://www.voanews.com/a/covid-19-pandemic_putin-bismarck-autocrats-fear-germs/6191402.html https://www.voanews.com/a/covid-19-pandemic_putin-bismarck-a... Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin, is taking far more stringent precautions than most of his global counterparts to prevent getting the coronavirus. Kremlin spokesmen Dmitry Peskov this week confirmed that anyone wanting to see the Russian president has to walk through a futuristic "disinfection tunnel," where they're sprayed with an aerosol mist. In April, it was confirmed that anyone wanting to see Putin has to undergo a test for the virus beforehand. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/08/vladimir-putin-massive-table https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/08/vladimir-putin... "Russia’s leader is using a five-metre table for one-on-one meetings, but is it just a super-cautious Covid measure?"
- munch117 4y ago
  I doubt very much that anyone else had the power to impose lockdown conditions on Vladimir Putin. This kind of health paranoia is exactly what I'd expect to see in a society where there's an epidemic that is out of control: some people will take extreme measures to protect themselves. The theory is interesting, but I see it as a theory of how the epidemic caused paranoia, not of how lockdowns caused paranoia.
  - origin_path 4y ago

The global situation w.r.t war and the ensuing energy and food shortages were caused by Vladimir Putin starting a war. How exactly is it that you think lockdowns influenced Vladimir Putin to do that?

roenxi 4y ago

Well, the lockdowns triggered a general collapse of oil prices as using oil suddenly became illegal. The oil price went negative (!) for a few amazing moments. Possibly that destablisied the Russian economy, spooked Putin, and convinced Russian high command that a desperate gamble was needed to try and unite the public against a foreign foe. China could do something similar, Xi wanting to unite the people behind a patriotic war to distract from a Hindenburg-style economic explosion. The protests in the US got noticeably more violent in the US around the same time as the lockdowns which is probably related to the economic stresses of the shut-down-the-economy policies. I imagine it would be worse in countries that aren't democracies; there are less outlets for the anger. And it seems obvious to me that we're feeling the snap-back effect of all the oil fields being shut down, + the inflation from rather extreme money handouts during the pandemic. A lot of the current economic troubles (which would also tend to contribute to people feeling stressed and war-like) are probably linked to the lockdowns through that mechanism.

munch117 4y ago
The Russian military action against Ukraine started in 2014, long before that.
- roenxi 4y ago
  Are you going to argue that the present situation in Ukraine is equivalent to the situation at the start of 2020? I suppose it might be, I wasn't paying a lot of attention. But my strong suspicion there has been a bit of a turning point that happened after COVID hit, possibly on or about 24 February 2022. It is notable that there was a long stretch of relative calm that ended around the time everyone switched off their economies. The original Crimea annexation didn't have all these headlines of global food shortages and energy crisii either, raising the questions of "why is this time so much worse?" and "why is this escalating?". You can blame Putin if you want, but lets be real - economic stresses are a big factor in war and peace.
  - munch117 4y ago
    The motivation behind the two events is the same. Putin sees in the very existence of Ukraine the loss of some glorious USSR past. The timing may have changed due to circumstances, but I think it's likely that escalation would have happened sooner or later anyway. Economic considerations would have been a great reason to not start a war. COVID-19 did not cause food shortages and an energy crisis. The war did.
    - roenxi 4y ago
      > The motivation behind the two events is the same. Putin sees... Putin has been running Russia for more than 20 years. So while he may or may not believe that, the timing of war starting right after the COVID pandemic is at least a little suspicious. > COVID-19 did not cause food shortages and an energy crisis. The war did. The crippling sanctions that Russia is imposing on the West are certainly the first order cause, but we must nevertheless observe that under more ordinary conditions maybe there would be some slack elsewhere in the world that could make up a bit more of the difference. We were seeing signs of food and energy pressure before the war. It has been brewing for a while now.

origin_path 4y ago

That's an interesting one. It has actually been speculated that lockdowns influenced Putin to do that. https://www.aston.ac.uk/latest-news/podcast-russia-expert-discusses-fears-putins-madness-over-ukraine https://www.aston.ac.uk/latest-news/podcast-russia-expert-di... "Dr Schimpfössl said Putin had been “extremely isolated” during the pandemic, with very few people allowed to see him in his “bunker”. She added: “It might well be, as bizarre as it sounds and unimaginable as it might be, that he is losing it and courting advice from people who have such fear of him that they would say what he wanted to hear.”" The invasion of Ukraine appears to have caught even Putin's generals by total surprise. It was quite clearly not well planned and Putin was over-confident to an extreme degree, i.e. he did not fully understand the situation his military was truly in. Putin is nearly 70. During COVID he became a lockdown paranoiac even by the standards of the time. As a consequence his ability to absorb information or check things for himself would have been much reduced. https://www.voanews.com/a/covid-19-pandemic_putin-bismarck-autocrats-fear-germs/6191402.html https://www.voanews.com/a/covid-19-pandemic_putin-bismarck-a... Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin, is taking far more stringent precautions than most of his global counterparts to prevent getting the coronavirus. Kremlin spokesmen Dmitry Peskov this week confirmed that anyone wanting to see the Russian president has to walk through a futuristic "disinfection tunnel," where they're sprayed with an aerosol mist. In April, it was confirmed that anyone wanting to see Putin has to undergo a test for the virus beforehand. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/08/vladimir-putin-massive-table https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/08/vladimir-putin... "Russia’s leader is using a five-metre table for one-on-one meetings, but is it just a super-cautious Covid measure?"

munch117 4y ago
I doubt very much that anyone else had the power to impose lockdown conditions on Vladimir Putin. This kind of health paranoia is exactly what I'd expect to see in a society where there's an epidemic that is out of control: some people will take extreme measures to protect themselves. The theory is interesting, but I see it as a theory of how the epidemic caused paranoia, not of how lockdowns caused paranoia.
- origin_path 4y ago