The other situation is when each manager is ordered to give 2 names to make redundant. If the existing group is well established, the new guy will get the axe.

The other situation is when each manager is ordered to give 2 names to make redundant. If the existing group is well established, the new guy will get the axe. Or people get hired in during good times, for the explicit purpose of being the one to lay off, to protect the rest of the group. You can get a feel based on the type of projects they let you work on.