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> The communications around nuclear at the moment are fascinating. I think we are really witnessing a massive PR campaign trying to take advantage of the war in

> The communications around nuclear at the moment are fascinating. I think we are really witnessing a massive PR campaign trying to take advantage of the war in Ukraine. Paid by who? People can add two and two to get four. The coming winter in Europe is going to see a lot of governments removed when people start freezing to death.

otherme123 4y ago
Do you think europeans live in huts or something? Usually we suffer more deaths in heat waves than any winter. On top of that, any statistic will show you that "europeans" deaths from freezing in cold waves come mainly from... Russia! I trust 100% in my home to keep me alive in the winter without using heat, even if I need to use gloves and double socks. But I've zero fear of freezing to death.
- samatman 4y ago
  Congratulations on being young and healthy, really speaks well of you that you cheerfully ignore those who aren't.
phtrivier 4y ago
200+ died in Texas last year because of electricity grid failure [1] gouvernements can survive such situations if there is a reasonable "scapegoat". In this case, it will be pretty fair to say that any energy shortage is _mostly_ to blame on Russian president. And gouvernements don't stay idle while this happens. For example : French government has been heavily subsidising everyone's energy bill for almost a year [2]; and the most likely situation for this winter is a period of rolling electricity cuts at the peak (probably January ?) [2]. As said elsewhere, "we don't live in huts" ; 2h without electricity per day a couple times a month in December - January would be a massive pain in the ass, and there will be a couple of well-mediatized drama, but it's not going to cause the same massive social unrest as a total blackout, or a 5€/liter of gas at the pump. What I really wonder is whether people will be able find practical ways to reduce their own pressure on the grid. Even if your heating is electrical, once you've turned your thermostat down to 19 and put on an extra sweater, I wonder if any extra step (turning of home lights, switching a screen off here and there) is cumulatively having _enough_ of an impact to make a January night peak more manageable. I'm not entirely ruling out a good surprise ; we might see a wining alliance of the electricity grid engineer, the weather forecaster and the everyday person to detect the peak in advance and adapt just enough. It would help if we could get our nuke plants back on track sooner, but let the workers work. > Every winter, that ever came, has ended [3] [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis [2] https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/09/01/delestage-tournant-sur-l-electricite-coupure-de-gaz-pour-les-entreprises-elisabeth-borne-detaille-les-scenarios-possibles-en-cas-de-penurie-d-energie_6139803_823448.html https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/09/01/delestag... [3] https://youtu.be/Owi_LFlcVGg https://youtu.be/Owi_LFlcVGg
- samatman 4y ago
  There's a reason we use the phrase "acts of God" to describe extreme weather events. What happened in Texas was 100% a policy failure, but it can be lampshaded as the act of God which revealed it. Europe's suffering this winter won't be so easily explained to the people suffering.
- otherme123 4y ago
  I think home quality is well above gas/electricity prices in terms of freezing to death in the winter. For example UK and Ireland are known to have relatively worse housing than central Europe for the climate they have to endure, so they have a high Excess Winter Mortality. A country like Finland, with probably the best houses in the world, have one of the lowest EWM of Europe, despite being one of the coldest countries. But I have not doubt that EWM will be weaponized this winter.

otherme123 4y ago

Do you think europeans live in huts or something? Usually we suffer more deaths in heat waves than any winter. On top of that, any statistic will show you that "europeans" deaths from freezing in cold waves come mainly from... Russia! I trust 100% in my home to keep me alive in the winter without using heat, even if I need to use gloves and double socks. But I've zero fear of freezing to death.

samatman 4y ago
Congratulations on being young and healthy, really speaks well of you that you cheerfully ignore those who aren't.

phtrivier 4y ago

200+ died in Texas last year because of electricity grid failure [1] gouvernements can survive such situations if there is a reasonable "scapegoat". In this case, it will be pretty fair to say that any energy shortage is _mostly_ to blame on Russian president. And gouvernements don't stay idle while this happens. For example : French government has been heavily subsidising everyone's energy bill for almost a year [2]; and the most likely situation for this winter is a period of rolling electricity cuts at the peak (probably January ?) [2]. As said elsewhere, "we don't live in huts" ; 2h without electricity per day a couple times a month in December - January would be a massive pain in the ass, and there will be a couple of well-mediatized drama, but it's not going to cause the same massive social unrest as a total blackout, or a 5€/liter of gas at the pump. What I really wonder is whether people will be able find practical ways to reduce their own pressure on the grid. Even if your heating is electrical, once you've turned your thermostat down to 19 and put on an extra sweater, I wonder if any extra step (turning of home lights, switching a screen off here and there) is cumulatively having _enough_ of an impact to make a January night peak more manageable. I'm not entirely ruling out a good surprise ; we might see a wining alliance of the electricity grid engineer, the weather forecaster and the everyday person to detect the peak in advance and adapt just enough. It would help if we could get our nuke plants back on track sooner, but let the workers work. > Every winter, that ever came, has ended [3] [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis [2] https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/09/01/delestage-tournant-sur-l-electricite-coupure-de-gaz-pour-les-entreprises-elisabeth-borne-detaille-les-scenarios-possibles-en-cas-de-penurie-d-energie_6139803_823448.html https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/09/01/delestag... [3] https://youtu.be/Owi_LFlcVGg https://youtu.be/Owi_LFlcVGg

samatman 4y ago
There's a reason we use the phrase "acts of God" to describe extreme weather events. What happened in Texas was 100% a policy failure, but it can be lampshaded as the act of God which revealed it. Europe's suffering this winter won't be so easily explained to the people suffering.
otherme123 4y ago
I think home quality is well above gas/electricity prices in terms of freezing to death in the winter. For example UK and Ireland are known to have relatively worse housing than central Europe for the climate they have to endure, so they have a high Excess Winter Mortality. A country like Finland, with probably the best houses in the world, have one of the lowest EWM of Europe, despite being one of the coldest countries. But I have not doubt that EWM will be weaponized this winter.