4 ms·

Let’s say Hans Niemann cheated somehow. Then he would not be able to cheat in the future, because security measures will tighten up, and he will drop like a roc

Let’s say Hans Niemann cheated somehow. Then he would not be able to cheat in the future, because security measures will tighten up, and he will drop like a rock from his current 2700 level to his true level. If that dous not happen, then he did’t cheat.

Hellion 4y ago
That’s a false dichotomy. There is a third possibly: He is an extremely talented and skilled chess player, who will resort to cheating to beat people at his level, using it sparingly.
- vintermann 4y ago
  Yes, we know this from cheating in other competitive sports, offline and online, though obviously there's more cheating online. Most speedrunners who have cheated well enough to secure a first place on a leaderboard, have been very, very good players even without cheating.
NhanH 4y ago
There is already a tweet saying that Han has a 200 rating difference between playing in tournaments that relay moves live to the internet and tournaments that doesn’t: https://twitter.com/atl_kings/status/1568656197812891653?s=21&t=kPdURZ0oIf-8T45VkTyDQg https://twitter.com/atl_kings/status/1568656197812891653?s=2... (Live game uses a special board that electronically records the move instantly and broadcast it)
- yesenadam 4y ago
  A tweet apparently debunking that tweet https://twitter.com/thestrongchess/status/1568810062399021062 https://twitter.com/thestrongchess/status/156881006239902106...
- londons_explore 4y ago
  I assume high level chess games are more likely to be live streamed...
- hutrdvnj 4y ago
  If we assume that the data is reliable (not hand picked just to make a case). Then let's check. Two sided un paired t-test. T-value of 4.9. SE of 56.325 Group 1 mean of 2383 with sd 125.56. Group 2 mean of 2659 with sd 119.16 39.7 SEM. P value of 0.0001. By conventional criteria there's about 0.01% chance the differences in the means is due to chance alone. That's 0.0001. I.e. If you were to play 19 tournaments randomly 10,000 times, only 1 in 10,000 would you perform better on live boards as well as Hans did due to chance alone.

Hellion 4y ago

That’s a false dichotomy. There is a third possibly: He is an extremely talented and skilled chess player, who will resort to cheating to beat people at his level, using it sparingly.

vintermann 4y ago
Yes, we know this from cheating in other competitive sports, offline and online, though obviously there's more cheating online. Most speedrunners who have cheated well enough to secure a first place on a leaderboard, have been very, very good players even without cheating.

NhanH 4y ago

There is already a tweet saying that Han has a 200 rating difference between playing in tournaments that relay moves live to the internet and tournaments that doesn’t: https://twitter.com/atl_kings/status/1568656197812891653?s=21&t=kPdURZ0oIf-8T45VkTyDQg https://twitter.com/atl_kings/status/1568656197812891653?s=2... (Live game uses a special board that electronically records the move instantly and broadcast it)

yesenadam 4y ago
A tweet apparently debunking that tweet https://twitter.com/thestrongchess/status/1568810062399021062 https://twitter.com/thestrongchess/status/156881006239902106...
londons_explore 4y ago
I assume high level chess games are more likely to be live streamed...
hutrdvnj 4y ago
If we assume that the data is reliable (not hand picked just to make a case). Then let's check. Two sided un paired t-test. T-value of 4.9. SE of 56.325 Group 1 mean of 2383 with sd 125.56. Group 2 mean of 2659 with sd 119.16 39.7 SEM. P value of 0.0001. By conventional criteria there's about 0.01% chance the differences in the means is due to chance alone. That's 0.0001. I.e. If you were to play 19 tournaments randomly 10,000 times, only 1 in 10,000 would you perform better on live boards as well as Hans did due to chance alone.