5 ms·

As someone working in the field, I'm surprised at all the comments here saying that it's not too far off. I disagree. It really comes down to what your toleran

As someone working in the field, I'm surprised at all the comments here saying that it's not too far off. I disagree. It really comes down to what your tolerance for error is. If you want something that kind of looks like a movie on the surface, but comes with a bunch of of nonsensical plot points and/or image artifacts then yes, I don't think we're too far off, maybe a few years or so. But you'll easily be able to tell that it's not made by humans. I'm taking about long-form movies here, not short video clips, which IMO aren't too far off and are probably possible roughly with what we have today. But for something that's truly indistinguishable from a human-made long-form movie, I don't think we can get there by improving the current technology, not even in 1-2 decades. Yes, DALL-E and GPT are impressive, but once you go past cherry-picked examples to something that requires long-term cohesion and reasoning it falls apart rather quickly because you're completely out-of-sample. You're not going to get this kind of model produce long-form content without any kind of incohesion.

mumumu 4y ago
This month is the 10th year anniversary of imagenet2012. I don't think it is reasonable to make predictions of how well the technology will be in 10 years. I don't think any experts in the field would say Dall-e was viable ten years ago, let alone 20 years ago.
rcarr 4y ago
What is worrying about this comment, is that you say short video clips aren’t far off. There is a certain illusion to long form artworks that they are a whole, when I would argue that instead they’re a composite of many short form works. A movie is typically split into three acts, and act is made up of multiple sequences, a sequence is made up of multiple scenes and then a scene is made up of multiple shots. If we are close to short form video being a reality, then we are almost certainly close to long form video. Yes you probably won’t be able to just write one sentence and out plops a cinematic blockbuster. But you will be able to write “Tom and Hannah discuss the death of Charlie and what it means to them whilst eating food in a diner” to spit out part of a script. Once you’ve tweaked your prompts and got your full script, you’d then theoretically put it in HOLL-Y and say “a close up shot of Charlie reading this part of the script in the diner in between eating his burger”, “a wide shot of this part of the script set in the same diner as the last video” etc. String those videos together with some ai generated transition shots to set the scene and you’ve got yourself a movie.
- mudrockbestgirl 4y ago
  > If we are close to short form video being a reality, then we are almost certainly close to long form video No, because a short 5-second clip requires mostly pattern matching that can be learned from existing training data that's in-sample, while long-form content requires symbolic reasoning that's out-of-sample. > Yes you probably won’t be able to just write one sentence and out plops a cinematic blockbuster. But you will be able to write “Tom and Hannah discuss the death of Charlie and what it means to them whilst eating food in a diner” to spit out part of a script I agree with this, but that's not how I understood the original question, which was having an AI model generate a movie script. If you have humans in-the-loop at every step that need to fine-tune and iterate on each part, that's different and I agree it's not nearly as far far away. But then you can already do something similar today by crowdsourcing the whole process behind a bunch of API calls. AI models will make this process cheaper, perhaps you can get a 10x reduction on workers, but you still need a huge amount of human input for the final output. Nothing wrong with that, I just don't think that's what the OP was asking.
  - rcarr 4y ago
    > I agree with this, but that's not how I understood the original question, which was having an AI model generate a movie script. If you have humans in-the-loop at every step that need to fine-tune and iterate on each part, that's different and I agree it's not nearly as far far away. I think you’re right in that the OP probably just wants a “one a click” prompt -> script/movie which is decades or more off. Thinking out loud: The end product exists to effect human emotions and I’m not convinced you can create a test suite for a computer that measures that. I think the closest you could get would be to strap people up to some sensors and have it measure their responses such as heart rate, breathing rate, sweat rate etc and have the test subjects answer questions about their perception of the film and then have the computer make tweaks and refinements based on that which would be about as close as you can get and pretty much how the industry operates now I believe except the producer stands in for the role of the computer. Somewhere down the line there’s got to be human input. I kind of think maybe what I’m trying to say is that for video there’s an extra data classification step compared to 2D images. That human review part of each scene of the script and each shot of the film are part of a “meta level” to the workflow. I’m guessing this is what you’re referring to by “long form content requires symbolic reasoning”? Maybe if enough “meta level” data was gathered about which of these tweaks resulted in successful movies the AI might start developing an “intuition” for what makes a great movie but I think you’d need decades of data for it to work?

mumumu 4y ago

This month is the 10th year anniversary of imagenet2012. I don't think it is reasonable to make predictions of how well the technology will be in 10 years. I don't think any experts in the field would say Dall-e was viable ten years ago, let alone 20 years ago.

rcarr 4y ago

What is worrying about this comment, is that you say short video clips aren’t far off. There is a certain illusion to long form artworks that they are a whole, when I would argue that instead they’re a composite of many short form works. A movie is typically split into three acts, and act is made up of multiple sequences, a sequence is made up of multiple scenes and then a scene is made up of multiple shots. If we are close to short form video being a reality, then we are almost certainly close to long form video. Yes you probably won’t be able to just write one sentence and out plops a cinematic blockbuster. But you will be able to write “Tom and Hannah discuss the death of Charlie and what it means to them whilst eating food in a diner” to spit out part of a script. Once you’ve tweaked your prompts and got your full script, you’d then theoretically put it in HOLL-Y and say “a close up shot of Charlie reading this part of the script in the diner in between eating his burger”, “a wide shot of this part of the script set in the same diner as the last video” etc. String those videos together with some ai generated transition shots to set the scene and you’ve got yourself a movie.

mudrockbestgirl 4y ago
> If we are close to short form video being a reality, then we are almost certainly close to long form video No, because a short 5-second clip requires mostly pattern matching that can be learned from existing training data that's in-sample, while long-form content requires symbolic reasoning that's out-of-sample. > Yes you probably won’t be able to just write one sentence and out plops a cinematic blockbuster. But you will be able to write “Tom and Hannah discuss the death of Charlie and what it means to them whilst eating food in a diner” to spit out part of a script I agree with this, but that's not how I understood the original question, which was having an AI model generate a movie script. If you have humans in-the-loop at every step that need to fine-tune and iterate on each part, that's different and I agree it's not nearly as far far away. But then you can already do something similar today by crowdsourcing the whole process behind a bunch of API calls. AI models will make this process cheaper, perhaps you can get a 10x reduction on workers, but you still need a huge amount of human input for the final output. Nothing wrong with that, I just don't think that's what the OP was asking.
- rcarr 4y ago
  > I agree with this, but that's not how I understood the original question, which was having an AI model generate a movie script. If you have humans in-the-loop at every step that need to fine-tune and iterate on each part, that's different and I agree it's not nearly as far far away. I think you’re right in that the OP probably just wants a “one a click” prompt -> script/movie which is decades or more off. Thinking out loud: The end product exists to effect human emotions and I’m not convinced you can create a test suite for a computer that measures that. I think the closest you could get would be to strap people up to some sensors and have it measure their responses such as heart rate, breathing rate, sweat rate etc and have the test subjects answer questions about their perception of the film and then have the computer make tweaks and refinements based on that which would be about as close as you can get and pretty much how the industry operates now I believe except the producer stands in for the role of the computer. Somewhere down the line there’s got to be human input. I kind of think maybe what I’m trying to say is that for video there’s an extra data classification step compared to 2D images. That human review part of each scene of the script and each shot of the film are part of a “meta level” to the workflow. I’m guessing this is what you’re referring to by “long form content requires symbolic reasoning”? Maybe if enough “meta level” data was gathered about which of these tweaks resulted in successful movies the AI might start developing an “intuition” for what makes a great movie but I think you’d need decades of data for it to work?