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"the compositions of today's atmosphere is much different from 8000 years ago. So very different feedback circle become relevant for the future dynamics of the
by radford-neal 4y ago
"the compositions of today's atmosphere is much different from 8000 years ago. So very different feedback circle become relevant for the future dynamics of the weather/climate"
The CO2 level is higher. But the usual "tipping point" dynamics (eg, melting of permafrost) involves just the change in temperature, unrelated to the cause of the warming. And when the "tipping point" is supposed to cause yet more warming because it leads to release of yet more CO2, starting from a higher CO2 level actually reduces the effect, because the warming effect of CO2 is proportional to the logarithm of the CO2 concentration (so releasing X amount of CO2 causes a smaller temperature rise if the CO2 concentration is high than if it is low).
"we are already well beyond the Holocene Climate Optimum"
From the Wikipedia page: "the 2021 IPCC report expressed medium confidence that temperatures in the last decade are higher than they were in the Mid-Holocene Warm Period". That doesn't sound like "already well beyond" is firmly established.
- Archelaos 4y agoMy sentence about "very different feedback circles" indeed does not accurately express my intent. I should have written: "We should expect a very different pattern of feedback circles becoming relevant for the future dynamics of the weather/climate as was important to stop the temperature rise 8000 years ago."