This article seems to indicate that the current models don’t account for some of it: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possi

This article seems to indicate that the current models don’t account for some of it: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-o... > The impact on the climate may mean an influx of permafrost-derived methane into the atmosphere in the mid-21st century, which is not currently accounted for in climate projections. (Note this is an unexpected type of abrupt thaw; the models probably do include the impact of more gradual permafrost thawing. Cold comfort though, and polar ice is melting at a faster rate than predicted overall.)