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Are these side effects calculated in the models, or are the models too optimistic?

• jandrese 4y ago
  Historically climate change models have been too optimistic. The other thing we have to consider is that if the model's range is between "everybody suffers" and "everybody dies" do you want to gamble with that?
  • sebazzz 4y ago
    Probably not. However, it seems that regardless of what they predict, nothing will happen. Humanity is like a toddler, only learns when you feel the consequences, rather than learning by being told about it. Also like a stubborn toddler like first needing to experience an almost trauma to change behavior, and apparently we haven't had that trauma yet.
• ryukafalz 4y ago
  This article seems to indicate that the current models don’t account for some of it: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-o... > The impact on the climate may mean an influx of permafrost-derived methane into the atmosphere in the mid-21st century, which is not currently accounted for in climate projections. (Note this is an unexpected type of abrupt thaw; the models probably do include the impact of more gradual permafrost thawing. Cold comfort though, and polar ice is melting at a faster rate than predicted overall.)