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So historically in the climate modeling world, +6-8 degrees was considered the "we're all screwed" tipping point; this has led to recent optimism where it now l
by saalweachter 4y ago
So historically in the climate modeling world, +6-8 degrees was considered the "we're all screwed" tipping point; this has led to recent optimism where it now looks like we'll probably level out at +2-3.5 degrees, and only some of us are screwed.
The major tipping points that are estimated at 1.5 degrees are Greenland, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and coral reefs dying off.
The former two have an associated sea level rise of about 3.5-4.5 meters all together.
So I think this article isn't changing the "some of us are screwed" narrative substantially; it's more interesting because it pulls out all of the major forecast disasters and gives estimates of when (temperature wise) they'll happen.
- ryukafalz 4y agoAlso from this article, between 1.5 and 2 degrees: > widespread abrupt permafrost thaw Which is “fun” because that releases a boatload more carbon into the atmosphere.
- andy_ppp 4y agoAnd methane.
- inetknght 4y agoYes, methane contains carbon.
- hh3k0 4y agoMethane is, over the span of 20 years, a 84--86 times more potent Greenhouse gas, though.
- ryukafalz 4y agoAs the sibling comment mentions methane contains carbon, but yes it’s worth pointing out because the short-term GHG potency of methane is extremely high. There’s potential for some terrible feedback loops here.
- foobarian 4y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis
- hh3k0 4y agoEverybody gangsta till the Clathrate gun pops off.
- saalweachter 4y agoIf you have a Clathrate gun in one chapter, it must go off in the next.
- BLKNSLVR 4y ago(not sure the scale of controversial this is) and anthrax and various other as-yet-unknown bacteria.
- AnonHP 4y agoAnd perhaps small pox and other viruses from dead and frozen bodies in permafrost?
- sebazzz 4y agoAre these side effects calculated in the models, or are the models too optimistic?
- jandrese 4y agoHistorically climate change models have been too optimistic. The other thing we have to consider is that if the model's range is between "everybody suffers" and "everybody dies" do you want to gamble with that?
- sebazzz 4y agoProbably not. However, it seems that regardless of what they predict, nothing will happen. Humanity is like a toddler, only learns when you feel the consequences, rather than learning by being told about it. Also like a stubborn toddler like first needing to experience an almost trauma to change behavior, and apparently we haven't had that trauma yet.
- ryukafalz 4y agoThis article seems to indicate that the current models don’t account for some of it: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-o... > The impact on the climate may mean an influx of permafrost-derived methane into the atmosphere in the mid-21st century, which is not currently accounted for in climate projections. (Note this is an unexpected type of abrupt thaw; the models probably do include the impact of more gradual permafrost thawing. Cold comfort though, and polar ice is melting at a faster rate than predicted overall.)
- johnla 4y agoSo are there any parts of the world that will benefit from global warming? Canadian and Russian wilderness?
- saalweachter 4y agoMaybe, but it's not like great trade-off on a global scale. Extreme latitudes are colder because they receive their sunlight at an angle. The tilt of the Earth and the seasons make things more complicated, but conceptually, if you are at latitude 45, you are also at a 45 degree angle relative to the sun, so sunlight is only 70% as intense as it is at the equator. With increased global temperatures, northern latitudes may have longer growing seasons, but they'll still have a different, probably inferior climate to what you're losing further south. So while there may be winners and losers on a global scale, the winners will probably win less than the losers lose.
- JoeAltmaier 4y agoAntarctica used to be a semi-tropical forest. Perhaps we'll all be living there!